Canada joins the USA as 10 new states and 3 territories

[Blue3]

Canada joins the USA as 10 new states and 3 territories, based on their existing subdivisions.

(Also Canada has a population of currently about 37 million, and currently the US population is about 322 million).

What's the impact on U.S. politics?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

A significant leftward shift. The GOP is locked out of the White House, perhaps forever.

[P123]

Large leftward shift. Alberta is the only Canadian providence that MIGHT vote Republican. Thats it.

GOP proabably is locked out forever.

[Sol]

What does apportionment look like?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Former Canadians are completely polarized over their inclusion in the United States. Canadian nationalists immediately establish a Free Canada Party, which aims to run candidates for state and federal offices in the former provinces of Canada. This party does not contest presidential races.

Meanwhile, in la belle province, Quebec sovereigntists are in an even bigger uproar than usual because the United States refuses to recognize the Quebec nation or French as an official language. Quebecers, particularly Francophones, coalesce en mass around the Bloc Quebecois at the federal level and the Parti Quebecois at the state level. Even Quebecers who never associated themselves with the sovereigntist movement are compelled to join the ranks of these parties. Neither party decides to run a presidential candidate, however, as they realize this candidate would only be successful with Quebec's electoral votes.

Still, some Canadians are complacent about these changes or believe they won't be reversed, so decide to engage with the political system ideologically. The Liberal and Conservative parties quickly die, as these former Canadians want their votes to actually matter. For those who choose to accept their place in the new mega-country, the Democratic Party becomes the clear choice; Republicans find very little support in the former provinces, save for a sizeable minority in Alberta.

Not all Canadians are satisfied with choosing between the Free Canada Party, the Quebec sovereigntist parties, the Democrats, and the Republicans, however. As such, the New Democratic Party manages to weather the storm of Canada's absorption into the United States. The NDP has decent success in the ten former provinces and three former territories of Canada. Interestingly, NDP party leaders see a demand for their ideological brand in the original 50 states too, so they decide to expand and contest races throughout all 63 states.

So what does this mean for how government looks?

The Free Canada party wins the governorships of almost all of the 13 new states, with a few exceptions. Quebec overwhelmingly elects a governor from the Parti Quebecois. Ontario elects a Democratic governor while British Columbia elects a New Democrat.

In the House of Representatives, the Canadian caucus is divided as follows: 55% for the Free Canada Party, 10% for the Bloc Quebecois, 20% for the Democratic Party, 10% for the New Democratic Party, and 5% for the Republicans. In the original 50 states, the House is divided as follows: 65% Republican, 35% Democrat, 10% New Democrat. The NDP mostly served as a spoiler that handed a lot of races to the GOP.

Things shake up similarly in the senate, except here the Free Canada Party and the Bloc Quebecois have extremely outsized influence. The only NDP senators come from Quebec and Vermont.

Presidentially, the presence of the New Democratic Party is a spoiler in some places throughout the original 50 states, but the deep unpopularity of the Republican brand in the new 13 states means that the Democrats have a solid hold on these areas, which means it's kind of a wash (or possibly gives an advantage to the Democrats). That being said, the NDP does occasionally manage to break through in some places like British Columbia, Vermont, and Quebec in the odd presidential race.

As time goes on, the Canadian nationalist movements lose steam. A lot of these folks would have been Conservative voters, so a decent share of them goes to the GOP. Still, most make their way to the NDP or the Democratic Party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm pretty sure Alberta would be a GOP stronghold, and Republicans would also be favored in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

The rest would obviously vote Democrat, though.

[fivex]

Would the the Democrats even establish themselves in Canada after such a merger?  I could easily see the Democrats and the Liberals forming an (essentially permanent) alliance and agreeing to run joint presidential primaries.

[Orser67]

Democrats gain a net of about ten seats in the Senate and 10-20 seats in the House. It would be a huge win for the party and provide a significant catalyst towards single-payer healthcare.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm pretty sure Alberta would be a GOP stronghold

Maybe if you ignore this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I'm pretty sure Alberta would be a GOP stronghold.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm pretty sure Alberta would be a GOP stronghold.

The real question is, do right wing parts of Canada poll heavily Democrat because they are inherently more left wing than right wing parts of America, or do they poll that way because they are part of a Canadian political culture which is heavily Democrat?

I think its the former. Obviously in the short term, the Democrats will be heavily favoured, but in the long term, the political cultures would merge and politicians would adapt as they always do. I have a hard time thinking that if we merged today, that a ranching,oil producing state would vote like Vermont in 2050 just because its up north.

Over the long term, we would see the GOP and the Democrats shift to the left and eventually the Canadian provinces would start voting more like their respective southern neighbours rather than as a bloc. Atlantic Canada would vote like poor, rural Maine. Southern Ontario would look like the mid west with rural GOP voters and heavily Democratic cities. The prairies would vote right. The only exception would be Quebec, which would stay well to the left of North America at large, and might have a reinvigorated Bloc Quebecois.

[Simfan34]

I remember seeing an old poll on annexation conducted in ~2002 or so, and it had 15% of people or so in support, with Quebec actually being more supportive than the rest of the country, if marginally so. I'm assuming we are handwaving opposition to annexation here in order for it to happen.

The GOP would shift left or collapse and be replaced by a new center-right party, or challenged by a Constitution/Heritage-like party on the right. The Dems would shift futher left than most would expect-- think just to the right of Bernie Sanders-- but thanks to the American electoral system an NDP analogue would not be able to go far.

The interesting question is how this affects the former provinces' governments. Would they switch to a directly elected executive or just adopt a South African-style head of state elected by the legislature.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I remember seeing an old poll on annexation conducted in ~2002 or so, and it had 15% of people or so in support, with Quebec actually being more supportive than the rest of the country, if marginally so. I'm assuming we are handwaving opposition to annexation here in order for it to happen.

The GOP would shift left or collapse and be replaced by a new center-right party, or challenged by a Constitution/Heritage-like party on the right. The Dems would shift futher left than most would expect-- think just to the right of Bernie Sanders-- but thanks to the American electoral system an NDP analogue would not be able to go far.

The interesting question is how this affects the former provinces' governments. Would they switch to a directly elected executive or just adopt a South African-style head of state elected by the legislature.

There's nothing that explicitly blocks states having parliamentary systems in the US constitution, no?

[Boston Bread]

The relatively moderate CPC can't get over 40% in Canada, and that's with one of the strongest performances for a conservative party among non-whites in the western world.

The GOP will get maybe 20%. A moderate GOPer could be elected in AB/SK/MB but the rest would be safe Dem.

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At the very least, the right-wing parts of Canada are generally neutral on abortion, gays, and support universal health care. That would make a lot of Canadian conservatives centrist on the American political spectrum. In places like rural southern Ontario, moderate CPC voters combined with the fact that the left-leaning vote is already at 50% in Canadian elections would give the Democrats large margins of victory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm pretty sure Alberta would be a GOP stronghold

Maybe if you ignore this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015

Wyoming and Oklahoma had Democratic governors not so long ago.

[Simfan34]

I remember seeing an old poll on annexation conducted in ~2002 or so, and it had 15% of people or so in support, with Quebec actually being more supportive than the rest of the country, if marginally so. I'm assuming we are handwaving opposition to annexation here in order for it to happen.

The GOP would shift left or collapse and be replaced by a new center-right party, or challenged by a Constitution/Heritage-like party on the right. The Dems would shift futher left than most would expect-- think just to the right of Bernie Sanders-- but thanks to the American electoral system an NDP analogue would not be able to go far.

The interesting question is how this affects the former provinces' governments. Would they switch to a directly elected executive or just adopt a South African-style head of state elected by the legislature.

There's nothing that explicitly blocks states having parliamentary systems in the US constitution, no?

Yes, but what happens to the Lieutenant Governors?

[Boston Bread]

Wyoming and Oklahoma had Democratic governors not so long ago.

Half of the right-wing vote in Alberta was for the PCs, who are pro-choice, pro-immigrant, and economically moderate by US standards. It'd be silly to assume they'd all vote R.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Canada has around the same population as California, so that would be a huge shot in the arm for the Democrats. I think the NDP voters would vote like 90% Democratic, 5 % Green, 5% Republican. Liberals would probably vote 90% Democratic and 10% Republican. Canadian Conservatives would actually lean Democratic here, Canadian Conservative are far less religous,paranoid and radical like the Republicans. Canada has a consensus on abortion, gay rights and health care that the US does not. Canadian Conservatives might even vote 60-40% in favour of the Democrats.

[Kingpoleon]

The New Democrats would be wildly successful in New England over time. The people like Angus King, Bernie Sanders, and Tim Cahill are all possible members of the party.

[RR1997]

Alberta would be a lean-Republican swing state.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba would be lean-Democratic swing states.

The rest would be safe D.

The GOP would never win an election ever again unless the party goes through some major reforms.

Hillary would win every state against Trump.

[bgwah]

I doubt the Canadian parties would just disappear. They could continue as regional parties, but I assume the NDP & Liberals would caucus with the Democrats in Congress.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The idea that tiny Prince Edward Island would be admitted as a State is silly.

[Kingpoleon]

304: Sandoval/Ernst
250(194+Canada): Clinton/Harper
30: Liberal

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

...and now all Canadians will have a good laugh at the idea that Stephen Harper is a Democrat.

Or that the Liberals run as a separate party, and win several American states, but no provinces where they actually have a campaign infrastructure and loyal voter base.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...and now all Canadians will have a good laugh at the idea that Stephen Harper is a Democrat.

Yeah, this is beyond stupid.