Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 03:46:25 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton leads Trump by 31 points
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: CA-USC/LA Times: Clinton leads Trump by 31 points  (Read 1575 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,370
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 28, 2016, 02:02:36 pm »

Clinton (D): 59%
Trump (R): 28%

Clinton (D): 54%
Kasich (R): 35%

Trump only gets 12% of Latinos lol.

https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/k000yvcmq0flmf56jw26vkm4mm52az3g
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2016, 02:08:17 pm »

If only Trump had a Hispanic wife rather than a Slovenian wife, he'd win this state in a landslide.

Logged

Ted Bessell
tedbessell
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,551


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2016, 03:14:04 pm »

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225598

-StatesPoll.com- told me Trump has a chance of winning CA against Hillary with 20~30% possibility! #JunkPoll
Logged

Trump has made a habit of raising a middle digit to reality, turning that middle digit into a knife, and stabbing reality through the heart.

Al gore is fake news
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,842
United States
P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2016, 03:19:56 pm »

I think Hillary would have a real shot at breaking 70% in the state if Trump is the nominee.
Logged

Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,007
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2016, 03:26:08 pm »

Watershed election, especially with Latino voters in Cali, hope she gets up to 70%
Logged
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2016, 03:30:10 pm »

New Poll: California President by LA Times on 2016-03-23

Summary: D: 59%, R: 28%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged

VirginiŠ
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,695
Ukraine


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2016, 03:53:18 pm »

Unrelated, but why do most poll's results not add up? I assume it's because they include people who said they aren't going to vote, or something like that, but wouldn't it make more sense to only include people who said they intend to vote?
Logged

Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,370
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2016, 03:54:34 pm »

Numbers like these show you that there's no plausible scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college...
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,085
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2016, 04:13:04 pm »

New Poll: California President by LA Times on 2016-03-23

Summary: D: 59%, R: 28%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This makes no sense. It only adds up to 90%. What's wrong with this poll? Edit: I found it out. The poll results are as follows:

Hillary Clinton: 59%
Donald Trump: 28%
Other: 4%

I assume the rest falls into other and is lost in rounding, as per the "Full Poll Details".

Can someone go back and change the numbers entered?
Logged

Somewhere in-between moderate conservative and revolutionary communist.



You matter, and never forget that. You are loved.
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,140
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2016, 04:31:02 pm »

Toss-up/tilt D
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,443


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2016, 04:51:55 pm »

Numbers like these show you that there's no plausible scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college...

I suppose there is a possibility Trump will do much better in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts etc while still losing them. You are right though, it's much more likely Trump loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote with small wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,007
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 28, 2016, 05:14:33 pm »

NY with Latino population will wind up like CA.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,171
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2016, 08:53:59 pm »

If Trump is only winning 12% of Latinos, he'll lose by much more than 31%...
Logged

○∙◄☻•tπ[╪AV┼cVÍ└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 44,991


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2016, 04:52:02 am »

It adds up if you include all their odd options.

Hillary Clinton            58 
Lean Hillary Clinton        1
Donald Trump               26
Lean Donald Trump           1
(Other)                     4
Lean (Other)                1
(Undecided)                 3
(Ref)                       1
(Will not vote)             4
Logged

Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,862
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2016, 09:03:30 am »

LOL, trump would lose so badly here.
Logged

United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, resident of wonderful California, devoted liberal Democrat. Any questions?

P123
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 331


Political Matrix
E: 3.64, S: 3.20

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2016, 10:26:49 am »

Yeah, California will be his worst state in the nation. Clinton will get 98% of the Obama voters and alot of the upper-class southern Californian Republicans will vote Clinton. Trump will also do horribly among California Hispanics. I could see Clinton breaking 70% in CA, 65%+ seems obvious.
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,007
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2016, 10:35:14 am »

This obviously mean NY, NJ or IL isnt in play, large Central America Latinos, non Mexicans.
Logged
Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,114
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2016, 12:48:56 pm »

Numbers like these show you that there's no plausible scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college...

I suppose there is a possibility Trump will do much better in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts etc while still losing them. You are right though, it's much more likely Trump loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote with small wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

There is no evidence that Trump will carry PA. None.
Logged
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,370
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2016, 01:01:15 pm »

There is no evidence that Trump will carry PA. None.

Early general election polls are useless. My guess is that if Trump wins the election, the tipping point state will be PA.
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2016, 01:13:41 pm »

There is no evidence that Trump will carry PA. None.

Early general election polls are useless. My guess is that if Trump wins the election, the tipping point state will be PA.

Maybe, but where is your evidence that Trump wins the election?

If early general election polls are useless (which I generally agree with), what's your evidence that Trump wins the election? Because if there's not any, then "There is no evidence that Trump will carry PA," as Shadow said.
Logged

Animation of 1964-2012 presidential margin by state, adjusted by US margin

Oregonian grad student living in PA.

I support both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,370
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2016, 01:18:25 pm »

Maybe, but where is your evidence that Trump wins the election?

If early general election polls are useless (which I generally agree with), what's your evidence that Trump wins the election? Because if there's not any, then "There is no evidence that Trump will carry PA," as Shadow said.

Oh, no, I'm not saying I know who will win the election - just that if he wins, he'll probably carry PA. It's really impossible to predict this election right now. Shadow made it sound like Trump would lose PA even if he won the election, which I don't think is likely, unless we all have exaggerated his weaknesses in VA.
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,007
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2016, 01:55:11 pm »

Even if CLINTON loses, which she wont because of the Latino vote, her floor is 252, like Al Gore and Kerry  managed to lose Iowa or NH, but manage to win Pa.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2016, 01:57:21 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,620
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2016, 03:03:48 pm »

Told my husband he's down 31% here, and he said "that's it?" Here especially in the Bay Area, it'll be really bad.
Logged

Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,363
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2016, 03:06:22 pm »

San Francisco could be interesting; I wonder how many Milo Yiannowhateverus type gays there are there?
Logged
ProgressiveCanadian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,674
Canada


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2016, 01:20:03 am »

Told my husband he's down 31% here, and he said "that's it?" Here especially in the Bay Area, it'll be really bad.

I do wonder how better the Sanders numbers would be.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines