The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread  (Read 211098 times)
Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #1800 on: August 31, 2017, 07:00:31 PM »


This is the sixth year in a row he's keynoted the Labor Day Breakfast. You'd think that they'd get bored.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1801 on: August 31, 2017, 11:32:23 PM »

When Garcetti was in New Hampshire, he also said that the 2020 Dem. primary electorate will have plenty of options (which I guess could be taken as a hint that he's open to being such an option):

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/31/democrats-2020-sanders-warren-biden-242189

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That article also talks about how the most well known 2020 prospects (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) are all over 70, and that this is a problem for the younger candidates.  I really don't think being unknown right now is any kind of deal killer.  Having early name recognition does offer some advantage in the primaries, but it's not like name recognition is some fixed thing.  There will certainly be some candidates who are unknown to most voters now, who will become known within the next three years.

And when they try to extend that name recognition argument to the general election as well, it becomes downright ridiculous:

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Why on Earth would present day lack of name recognition (in 2017) be some kind of liability in the general election in 2020?  Anyone who wins the Democratic nomination will, as a consequence of running and winning the Democratic nomination for president, become world-famous, with nearly 100% name recognition among American voters by the time they've clinched the nomination.  This argument strikes me as really dumb.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1802 on: September 01, 2017, 08:12:39 AM »

Bullock, Murphy and Tim Ryan are seeking staff.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1803 on: September 01, 2017, 03:45:26 PM »


This is the sixth year in a row he's keynoted the Labor Day Breakfast. You'd think that they'd get bored.

I mean at this rate, they can probably quote back his entire speech.

Ugh, Ryan. Go Murphy.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #1804 on: September 01, 2017, 03:54:51 PM »


So this is the sort of thing that frustrates me about Axios. What kind of staff? How many? Tim Ryan could be bulking up for a potential 2018 speaker bid. I once saw Sanders hiring a Foreign Policy staffer being claimed as solid evidence of a run (by Matt Yglesias I think), which is patently false.
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varesurgent
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« Reply #1805 on: September 01, 2017, 04:43:16 PM »

I don't know what Garcetti is thinking he is a quintessential big city liberal 'coastal elite' probably the worst kind of candidate for WWC voters.

Remember that billionaire from New York who grew up rich and stiffed contractors?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1806 on: September 01, 2017, 08:23:56 PM »

Murphy comes out with a free college plan:

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/903640841113219072

I think he's in.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #1807 on: September 01, 2017, 10:38:40 PM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1808 on: September 01, 2017, 10:45:58 PM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



Where are you getting those numbers from?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1809 on: September 01, 2017, 11:00:21 PM »

Here's this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/01/politics/2020-vision-kamala-harris-single-payer/index.html

Of note from that column....

Julian Castro will teach at the University of Texas this coming semester:

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Also, Jason Kander will make stops in both Iowa and New Hampshire in the next week and a half:

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If that isn't enough early state action for Kander, his "Let America Vote" group is also opening field offices in five states for the 2018 midterms....three of which just happen to be early primary states:

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1810 on: September 01, 2017, 11:06:36 PM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?
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Canis
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« Reply #1811 on: September 01, 2017, 11:07:40 PM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?
Im pretty sure those are the percentages from the ppp poll of all these candidates vs trump
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1812 on: September 01, 2017, 11:16:57 PM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?
Im pretty sure those are the percentages from the ppp poll of all these candidates vs trump

If that's the case, then some of those numbers are pretty sad, as some of them are worse for Ds than my own supposedly outrageous predictions. (I have Biden at 60%, Booker at 50%, Delaney and Harris at 44%.)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1813 on: September 02, 2017, 12:20:55 AM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?
Im pretty sure those are the percentages from the ppp poll of all these candidates vs trump

Yeah, looks like that's what it is:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271374.msg5795514#msg5795514
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #1814 on: September 02, 2017, 11:40:47 AM »

Yes, those were the PPP percentages.

I find it shocking that Blumenthal and Cuban somehow have a higher percentage than Harris.

I guess the whole "run celebrities/elites" thing is something we're still going with.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1815 on: September 02, 2017, 11:46:19 AM »

Some in Biden's political orbit are anonymously suggesting that (shocker!) Biden's book tour may have something to do with 2020 presidential ambitions:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/348632-2020-begins-with-the-book-tours

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1816 on: September 02, 2017, 10:38:28 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2017, 11:25:10 PM by Mr. Morden »

The NY Times has another story looking at the overall Dem. 2020 landscape, with tidbits from various candidates:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/02/us/politics/democrats-president-2020.html?mcubz=3

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There’s also some stuff in the article on Harris, among others, but I don’t want to quote too much of it.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1817 on: September 02, 2017, 10:52:15 PM »

^ Wikipedia told me that Gillibrand, McAuliffe, and Warren aren't running, so..... Tongue
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #1818 on: September 03, 2017, 12:11:32 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2017, 12:13:12 AM by Anyone But Trump 2020 »

Dwayne Johnson/Tom Hanks tease 2020 campaign on SNL.

Albeit SNL...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1819 on: September 03, 2017, 12:14:54 AM »

Dwayne Johnson/Tom Hanks tease 2020 campaign on SNL.

Albeit SNL...

That was months ago.  SNL is airing reruns now, since it's the summer.
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varesurgent
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« Reply #1820 on: September 03, 2017, 01:48:47 AM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



So 38% is the Dem floor because no one -- and I mean no one -- knows who Delaney is. Basically an anyone but Trump (did the poll mention party for these matchups?)
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1821 on: September 03, 2017, 02:50:55 AM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



So 38% is the Dem floor because no one -- and I mean no one -- knows who Delaney is. Basically an anyone but Trump (did the poll mention party for these matchups?)

It did mention party, but obviously Delaney would get more than 38% in the GE. My estimate is that Trump would beat Delaney 52%-44% in the NPV.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1822 on: September 03, 2017, 08:46:47 AM »

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?



So 38% is the Dem floor because no one -- and I mean no one -- knows who Delaney is. Basically an anyone but Trump (did the poll mention party for these matchups?)

It did mention party, but obviously Delaney would get more than 38% in the GE. My estimate is that Trump would beat Delaney 52%-44% in the NPV.

You don't know that. It would depend on the campaign and also it's 3 years out.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1823 on: September 03, 2017, 12:24:34 PM »

Merkley writes an op-ed for the Des Moines Register:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/09/01/oregon-iowa-progressives-can-take-back-our-country/614555001/

Why is a Senator from Oregon writing an op-ed for an Iowa paper?

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/09/will_merkley_run_for_president.html

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Kamala
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« Reply #1824 on: September 03, 2017, 12:49:19 PM »

I like Merkely, but he's quite boring. Reminds me of a progressive Al Gore/John Kerry. Isn't necessarily a bad candidate, but not exciting either. To be honest, if I had to pick, I'd choose Sanders over Merkely. He's at least exciting.
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