The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[LLR]

Funnily enough, I think Joaquin would be a better candidate. Maybe Julian runs in 2024 to pave the way for Joaquin in 2028?

[Kingpoleon]

Funnily enough, I think Joaquin would be a better candidate. Maybe Julian runs in 2024 to pave the way for Joaquin in 2028?

Joaquin would be more likely to win any Senate races. He has four years under his belt in Congress already and twelve years in the State House before that.

[Mr. Morden]

Justin Amash hinted both at a "Young Americans for Liberty" event and on Twitter that he's up for a 2020 presidential run:

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/amash-hints-2020-presidential-run/

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[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul was asked about whether he'd run for president again in 2020, and "gave no specific response", saying only that he's focused on his reelection:

http://www.wave3.com/story/32558846/senator-rand-paul-believes-trump-has-taken-a-huge-step-forward

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz is facing yuge donor blowback for his convention speech.

[OwlRhetoric]

I think Rand is out. His campaign bombed and the Ron Paul liberty movement is largely in disarray, splintered between purists, people supporting Johnson, or going to Trump.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton is attending a Heck fundraiser next week. He's also speaking at Laxalt's Basque Fry event.

[LLR]

Cotton is attending a Heck fundraiser next week. He's also speaking at Laxalt's Basque Fry event.

Paul Laxalt will likely not be alive in 2020. No use courting his endorsement

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton is attending a Heck fundraiser next week. He's also speaking at Laxalt's Basque Fry event.

Paul Laxalt will likely not be alive in 2020. No use courting his endorsement

Did I need to specify Adam, not Paul?

[Kingpoleon]

Cotton is attending a Heck fundraiser next week. He's also speaking at Laxalt's Basque Fry event.

Paul Laxalt will likely not be alive in 2020. No use courting his endorsement

I wasn't even invited to his Basque Fry event/funeral!

I mean, I probably wouldn't eat him, but still.

[Mr. Morden]

Former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling says he plans to run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2020 or 2024:

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2016/08/09/Curt-Schilling-eyes-2020-presidential-bid/1961470747032/

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[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think Rand is out. His campaign bombed and the Ron Paul liberty movement is largely in disarray, splintered between purists, people supporting Johnson, or going to Trump.

Yeah, Amash is our best hope in my opinion. He's more popular with the base while maintaining an ability to appeal to a broader base without alienating his core like Rand did.

[Mr. Morden]

John Weaver, on whether Kasich will run again in 2020:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/08/yes-john-kasich-is-still-running-for-president.html

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[LLR]

Former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling says he plans to run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2020 or 2024:

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2016/08/09/Curt-Schilling-eyes-2020-presidential-bid/1961470747032/

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Well, he's a racist bigot, so it makes sense.

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT has a story on how Pence is positioning himself to be a "post-Trump" GOP leader:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump.html?_r=0

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[Mr. Morden]

Former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling says he plans to run for president (presumably as a Republican) in 2020 or 2024:

http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/2016/08/09/Curt-Schilling-eyes-2020-presidential-bid/1961470747032/

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Here's more on Schilling's political ambitions:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/08/16/curt-schilling-says-considering-running-against-senator-elizabeth-warren/a4i6Z8QLWxy8TcBlaAnN8M/story.html

Looks like he might run for Warren's Senate seat in 2018.

[Mr. Morden]

Dispatch from the annual RedState Gathering a few days ago:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438980/five-observations-redstate-gathering

Sasse "stole the show", Fiorina also received well, Cory Gardner "had an uneven performance".

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[Mr. Morden]

This story’s a few weeks old, but it’s about Cuomo and Gillibrand politicking at the DNC in Philly a few weeks ago.  Unlike Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and O’Malley, neither of them talked to the Iowa or New Hampshire delegations while they were there:

http://politicsnow.buffalonews.com/2016/07/28/cuomo-gillibrand-look-like-presidential-candidates-in-philly-sort-of/

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[RogueBeaver]

Kasich meeting NH supporters.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich meeting NH supporters.

If you asked me a year ago, I would have rated Kasich low on the list of 2016 GOP presidential candidates most likely to run again in 2020.  I didn't think that Kasich was desperate for the job in the same way that, say, Marco Rubio was.  As with Jeb Bush, I wondered if it was just that the people around him talked him into it.  (And of course, unlike Cruz and Rubio, Kasich's starting to get up there in age, as he'll be in his late 60s in 2020.)

But now I guess Kasich really does want to be president, as he's signalling an interest in another run more strongly than anyone else from the 2016 field other than Cruz (and Rubio, sort of...though that's in hibernation while Rubio runs for reelection).  Will be interesting to see where this goes.  With (presumably) no Bush running in 2020, will there be a sizeable contingent of donors rallying around Kasich as the "electable" option for 2020?

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo: Rubio is still running for the presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/marco-rubio-is-running-for-the-senate--or-maybe-still-the-presidency/2016/08/22/48278658-6663-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html

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[Arbitrage1980]

Kasich meeting NH supporters.

If you asked me a year ago, I would have rated Kasich low on the list of 2016 GOP presidential candidates most likely to run again in 2020.  I didn't think that Kasich was desperate for the job in the same way that, say, Marco Rubio was.  As with Jeb Bush, I wondered if it was just that the people around him talked him into it.  (And of course, unlike Cruz and Rubio, Kasich's starting to get up there in age, as he'll be in his late 60s in 2020.)

But now I guess Kasich really does want to be president, as he's signalling an interest in another run more strongly than anyone else from the 2016 field other than Cruz (and Rubio, sort of...though that's in hibernation while Rubio runs for reelection).  Will be interesting to see where this goes.  With (presumably) no Bush running in 2020, will there be a sizeable contingent of donors rallying around Kasich as the "electable" option for 2020?

He's gonna run again, but he's a bad fit for today's GOP.  Even if Trump had not run, Kasich would not have been the nominee; it would have been either Rubio or Cruz.  He's not considered conservative enough, and his policies on medicaid expansion, common core, and illegal immigration really upset the base.  Having said that, if Trump loses in an epic landslide, it is possible that the GOP learns its lesson and turns to someone like Kasich (similar to the Democrats' mea culpa after getting their butt kicked by Nixon, Reagan, and HW Bush, and turned to a moderate southern democrat who wanted to move the party to the center). 

[Mr. Morden]

Having said that, if Trump loses in an epic landslide, it is possible that the GOP learns its lesson and turns to someone like Kasich (similar to the Democrats' mea culpa after getting their butt kicked by Nixon, Reagan, and HW Bush, and turned to a moderate southern democrat who wanted to move the party to the center). 

I'm honestly not sure that it's possible for parties to "learn their lesson" on who to nominate in the primary era.  The prototypical example people talk about is the Dems nominating Bill Clinton in '92, which was a move to the center after folks like Mondale and Dukakis.  But I think that was more just an accident of the primary calendar and who Clinton's competition was, plus credit to Clinton's own exceptional political skills.  If a heavyweight like Cuomo had run, then there's a good chance that Clinton would have lost.  Likewise, if Jesse Jackson had run again, then, like in '84 and '88, he would have sucked up black votes in the South, and diluted the strong Southern vote for Clinton.

I think "learning your lesson" can help the discontents make peace with the nominee once he's been nominated.  If the Republicans nominated Kasich in 2020, then the right flank of the party might mute their criticism of him during the general election campaign, because they're desperate to win after 12 years of Democratic presidents.  But would they be any more likely to nominate him in the first place?  Probably not.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton will be speaking at a Scott Co. (IA) party dinner in October.

[Figueira]

I think Rand is out. His campaign bombed and the Ron Paul liberty movement is largely in disarray, splintered between purists, people supporting Johnson, or going to Trump.

Yeah, Amash is our best hope in my opinion. He's more popular with the base while maintaining an ability to appeal to a broader base without alienating his core like Rand did.

Couldn't Cruz do that too?

Cruz is just a really extreme conservative.