The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

I continue to think that if Trump gets a challenger, it’s most likely to come from the so-called Liberty wing of the party.  Maybe it’ll be Rand Paul, but Justin Amash continues to be the one I’m looking at as a leading possibility.  Amash is already voicing skepticism about Trump, as seen by his recent tweets:

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797213664021512194
https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/797264890197053440
https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/797421508297707520 (this one is from the AP, but was retweeted by Amash)

Meanwhile, on the Sanders front, Bernie’s wife says that he’s not concerned about what happens in 2020, as he’s focused on the present:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/jane-sanders-bernie-sanders-2020/

But then, what else is she going to say?

[White Trash]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

[Acestroke]

Hard to see a scenario where Democrats don't go full Corbyn in 2020. Hillary's coalition of white neoliberal elites and minorities barely stopped the left in 2016 (helped by collusion and cheating). Who can replicate that in 2020? Cory Booker maybe?

[Wells]

I've been hearing that some people, some very important, highly respected people want Michelle Obama to run for president.

[publicunofficial]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

[Comrade Funk]

I've been hearing that some people, some very important, highly respected people want Michelle Obama to run for president.

Maybe, but it'd continue the streak of an election with a Bush/Clinton/Obama on the ticket, starting from 1980. Feel like people are getting sick of that, so another Obama is risky.

[JA]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

If any of them could be competitive in the primary, I think they could help bring the eventual Democratic nominee (which is extremely unlikely to be any of those three) back to earth enough to understand how and why they should appeal to the White working class.

[White Trash]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

Lynch isn't really even a social conservative. He's a conservative in comparison to the rest of Massachusetts's politicians. Which is like being the most honest man in Washington.

[Figueira]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

Lynch isn't really even a social conservative. He's a conservative in comparison to the rest of Massachusetts's politicians. Which is like being the most honest man in Washington.

He'd do about as well as Lincoln Chafee. He wouldn't even have name recognition in Massachusetts outside his district if it wasn't for his failed Senate run in 2013.

[White Trash]

I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

Lynch isn't really even a social conservative. He's a conservative in comparison to the rest of Massachusetts's politicians. Which is like being the most honest man in Washington.

He'd do about as well as Lincoln Chafee. He wouldn't even have name recognition in Massachusetts outside his district if it wasn't for his failed Senate run in 2013.

You're probably right. But a boy can dream, can't he?

[Figueira]

I guess if I had to pick a dream candidate from the MA House delegation it would be Jim McGovern. He's able to sell progressive ideas in a relatively moderate district. But he's expressed no interest in running for higher office.

We're getting kind of off-topic though.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Didn't Jon Tester vote against the auto bailout? There's a winning Michigan candidate!

[Mr. Morden]

More Cuomo talk:

http://buffalonews.com/2016/11/13/cuomo-in-2020/

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The story also notes that it’s unclear if, should Cuomo decide to run, he’ll bother running for a 3rd term as governor first in 2018.  It might be easier for him to leave Albany before mounting a presidential campaign.

[Vega]

Cuomo will be crushed in the primary. This isn't 1992.

[coloradocowboi]

If he survives what could be a tough Senate election...Joe Manchin??

No way he would be nominated.

This.  The Dems are too SJW now to nominate a white Southern man who would already be in his 70s when primary season starts.

It is not even that. He is old. We need to stop nominating old people and rebuild our bench. PERIOD.

And he's owned by fossil fuels. We didn't lose this election by not being moderate enough. We lost it because people couldn't tell the difference.

Hard to see a scenario where Democrats don't go full Corbyn in 2020. Hillary's coalition of white neoliberal elites and minorities barely stopped the left in 2016 (helped by collusion and cheating). Who can replicate that in 2020? Cory Booker maybe?

And those same groups didn't turn out for HRC. Makes me wonder whether her "coalition" in the primary was really just older African Americans and Hispanics, corporate Dems, and women and LGBTQ folks (like myself) who were too enthusiastic about her historicity to see her flaws clearly.

The data has always said that economics wins elections, and I think leftist populism that gets the WWC folks who will be inevitably disappointed by the Donald and communities of color to the polls, tinged with feminist and pro-equality rhetoric builds a much better coalition than Cory Booker's corporate PR non-message.

[Xing]

It's not going to be Cuomo, Booker, Kaine, or any other Democrat in that mold. It's going to be someone popular with the young-uns, trust me on that.

[Mr. Morden]

2020 watch on the Sunday morning talk shows: Booker was on Meet the Press this morning, while Sanders was on Face the Nation.

[justfollowingtheelections]

What about Inslee in 2020 for the Democratic nomination

The moron who predicted Hillary would beat Bernie in Washington?  No thanks.  He's so out of touch, it's not even funny.  The nominee has to be a Bernie supporter because everyone else proved themselves to be clueless.  Jeff Merkley would be the best option by far.  Keith Ellison would be a good option but being Muslim would hurt his chances.

[Xing]

It's not going to be Cuomo, Booker, Kaine, or any other Democrat in that mold. It's going to be someone popular with the young-uns, trust me on that.

Maybe, but good luck getting that person to win anything in the South.

That candidate wouldn't need to win the South. They'd just need to do better than Bernie there and in the Rust Belt.

[Mr. Morden]

Some more 2020 talk from the Dems (much of it dated, but relevant again)….

Biden
Over the summer, Biden said that he wouldn’t rule out running for office in the future:

http://time.com/4432295/joe-biden-vice-president-office-2/

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Booker
A few days before the election, this was Booker on 2020:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/politics/elections/us-senator-cory-booker-one-on-one/347525918

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de Blasio

This story from last year is worth a read again:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-does-bill-de-blasio-want-in-2016-2015-4

It talks about how de Blasio made a trip to Iowa last year, which sparked a brief round of speculation about whether he might be interested in running as the progressive insurgent candidate against Clinton in the ’16 Dem. primaries.  Of course, de Blasio passed on a run:

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But that was in response to the question of whether he’d run in ’16.  Running for reelection as mayor of NYC doesn’t preclude him running for president in 2020.

[Vega]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

[Shadows]

De Blasio is left nowhere - Neither on the Bernie camp nor Hillary although he is trying to cosy up to Bernie to get the progressive rub off further.

But he is only a big city mayor. IMO he should run for Senate or be a governor to be considered seriously. I think he will run for NY Governor soon!

Hope xingkerui is right & we don't get Booker, Kaine, Gillebrand, Coumo type but a firebrand progressive with strong appeal to young voters - 4 years is a long time & new leaders will come too

[LLR]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I don't even know if he'll be my mayor 14 months from now

[Figueira]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

Similarly, I think the biggest problem with Harris at this point is the optics of her having been a San Francisco local politician. Most of the other negatives about her can be cancelled out--'muh soft on crime' with the fact that she was a DA, her less-than-Ozzie and Harriet personal life with Trump's vastly worse one, et cetera--but not that one, unfair as that is.