The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[libertpaulian]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I don't even know if he'll be my mayor 14 months from now

Crime is pretty low in New York.

[Figueira]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

Similarly, I think the biggest problem with Harris at this point is the optics of her having been a San Francisco local politician. Most of the other negatives about her can be cancelled out--'muh soft on crime' with the fact that she was a DA, her less-than-Ozzie and Harriet personal life with Trump's vastly worse one, et cetera--but not that one, unfair as that is.

Yeah, I still think Harris is a good candidate, but that is a major roadblock for her.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

He's too 'finance capitalist with socially liberal characteristics', not too overall-moderate.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

Because being pro choice is the sole determinant of liberalism .

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Again, Biden will be 78 in 2008. While it's becoming more and more common for older politicians to run viable campaigns, I still think 2016 was his last chance.

[coloradocowboi]

It's not going to be Cuomo, Booker, Kaine, or any other Democrat in that mold. It's going to be someone popular with the young-uns, trust me on that.

Maybe, but good luck getting that person to win anything in the South.

That candidate wouldn't need to win the South. They'd just need to do better than Bernie there and in the Rust Belt.

I also don't get the assertion that only a "New Democrat" could win in the South. sh**tty AA turnout is what doomed us in FL and NC not lopsided defeat among moderate whites, and Hillary's appeal to the intellectual class in places like the Triangle and Tampa paid very meager dividends.

I think leftwing populism is a smart investment plan in the South, especially as homophobia and religious conservatism begins to fade across the country. The Country Club Repubs will always hold their nose and vote GOP, but we can start picking off some hillfolk again if we shed the elitist image.

[Devout Centrist]

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

No, he's too corrupt.

Clinton had a lot of smoke around her. Cuomo is on fire.

[Vega]

Yeah, let's appoint another corrupt New York Democrat who served in the Clinton administration as the Nominee!

[Horsemask]

I feel like Booker is really gearing up for a run in 2020.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

Sounds like Clinton in 2013/2014... just saying

Actually, I would enjoy it greatly if Cruz repeated 2016 (but flipped) in 2020. Given how overwhelmed Trump has been so far (and not even in office yet!), I wouldn't be surprised if he declined to run...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

Sounds like Clinton in 2013/2014... just saying

Actually, I would enjoy it greatly if Cruz repeated 2016 (but flipped) in 2020. Given how overwhelmed Trump has been so far, I wouldn't be surprised if he declined to run

A lot of Trump supporters are optimistic that he might complete the "holy trinity of Trumpism" (NAFTA, the wall, and Obamacare) by 2020 and turn the keys over to Pence. He himself has hinted that he only wants the job as long as he is needed. I personally want him to serve two full terms, even if it means handing the Presidency over to the Democrats afterwards (second terms always seem to go south) in 2024 because I don't want the exiled establishment Republicans launching a counter-revolution before we become entrenched.

Anywho, Trump being a one term President is almost more likely if he's successful than unsuccessful.

[Vega]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

Sounds like Clinton in 2013/2014... just saying

Actually, I would enjoy it greatly if Cruz repeated 2016 (but flipped) in 2020. Given how overwhelmed Trump has been so far, I wouldn't be surprised if he declined to run

A lot of Trump supporters are optimistic that he might complete the "holy trinity of Trumpism" (NAFTA, the wall, and Obamacare) by 2020 and turn the keys over to Pence. He himself has hinted that he only wants the job as long as he is needed. I personally want him to serve two full terms, even if it means handing the Presidency over to the Democrats afterwards (second terms always seem to go south) in 2024 because I don't want the exiled establishment Republicans launching a counter-revolution before we become entrenched.

Anywho, Trump being a one term President is almost more likely if he's successful than unsuccessful.

I could see Trump not running in 2020 because he can spin things as "a job done" and not being a career politician, etc.

[coloradocowboi]

I feel like Booker is really gearing up for a run in 2020.

Democratic consultants everywhere are rejoicing!

But normal people won't like this guy.

[Kingpoleon]

Everyone is saying that Cuomo is too moderate to win a Democratic nomination, but he is literally the guy who said that pro-lifers have no place in New York.  How liberal does one have to go to win the nomination?

Corrupt social liberals =/= progressives/social democrats

[Mr. Morden]

Republican Governors Association is meeting this week, and as this story notes, it now looks like folks like Kasich and Walker are putting their presidential ambitions on hold because Trump will presumably be re-nominated in 2020:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-15/now-in-trump-s-shadow-republican-governors-put-presidential-aspirations-on-hold

In Kasich's case, "on hold" might well mean "giving up on", since he'll be over 70 in 2024.

[Figueira]

Republican Governors Association is meeting this week, and as this story notes, it now looks like folks like Kasich and Walker are putting their presidential ambitions on hold because Trump will presumably be re-nominated in 2020:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-15/now-in-trump-s-shadow-republican-governors-put-presidential-aspirations-on-hold

In Kasich's case, "on hold" might well mean "giving up on", since he'll be over 70 in 2024.

I wouldn't be shocked if he runs in 2024, but he'll do about as well as George Pataki.

[Confused Democrat]

Tim Ryan appears to be angling for house minority leader.

Any chance that he throws his hat in the ring come 2020?

[Sedona]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

That's assuming he doesn't get primaried in 2018.

[Mr. Morden]

With Warren as (potentially) de facto Dem. frontrunner, it's worth taking a look at how she's handling her new position as part of the opposition to Trump.  The latest is that she sent Trump a letter:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/15/elizabeth-warren-wants-trump-shake-his-transition-team-else/1VIgKifk1aXmf1P1zsDf3K/story.html

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[Vega]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

[Figueira]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

There's only been one poll (from before the 2016 election) and it had Warren ahead. I'm not sure if Sanders was even included though.

[Confused Democrat]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

There's only been one poll (from before the 2016 election) and it had Warren ahead. I'm not sure if Sanders was even included though.

Warren will be 71 in 2020.

It will be her last chance to run if she really wants it.

[The Other Castro]

Boston Globe: 20 candidates who could run in 2020 — Democrats and Republicans

Democrats
John Bel Edwards
Bill de Blasio
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Tulsi Gabbard
Kamala Harris
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Joe Manchin
Thomas Perez
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Jon Tester
Elizabeth Warren
Tom Wolf

Republicans
John Kasich
Ted Cruz

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/16/candidates-who-could-run-democrats-and-republicans/hxdFmFwXHg64rEEaIgKa9I/story.html?event=event25