The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-seek-reelection-run-president-article-1.2874698

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Beet]

Boston Globe: 20 candidates who could run in 2020 — Democrats and Republicans

Democrats
John Bel Edwards
Bill de Blasio
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Julian Castro
Andrew Cuomo
Russ Feingold
Tulsi Gabbard
Kamala Harris
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Joe Manchin
Thomas Perez
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Jon Tester
Elizabeth Warren
Tom Wolf

Republicans
John Kasich
Ted Cruz

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/16/candidates-who-could-run-democrats-and-republicans/hxdFmFwXHg64rEEaIgKa9I/story.html?event=event25

Joe Manchin but no Brian Schweitzer?

[Figueira]

Problem with Tester is that we need someone who can hold that sest in Montana. I guess Bullock can appoint himself, but I'd rather if he ran against Daines.

[Ronnie]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

I'm actually not sure it's likely they'll both throw their hat into the ring, since they agree on almost everything, and by splitting the vote, they would risk throwing the nomination to an establishment Dem.

[Figueira]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

I'm actually not sure it's likely they'll both throw their hat into the ring, since they agree on almost everything, and by splitting the vote, they would risk throwing the nomination to an establishment Dem.

Yeah, Sanders and Warren aren't both going to run. I'd probably bet on neither of them running, but they certainly aren't both going to run.

[Mr. Morden]

Kaine says no presidential run for him in 2020:

http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/article_cd9f08c2-9594-585d-a558-b4b7bbc55ced.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Figueira]

Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

[Mr. Morden]

Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

Among actual politicians?  Yes, I believe he's the only one.  However, Michelle Obama has also ruled out running:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/michelle-obama-president-sxsw/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

Aside from Kaine's apparently removing himself from the race....

In the week+ since election day, Sanders has explicitly said that he's not ruling out a 2020 presidential campaign.  Meanwhile, Cuomo, Klobuchar, and Warren have all been asked about future presidential plans, and they all gave non-answers like "that's a long way off".

[Figueira]

Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

Among actual politicians?  Yes, I believe he's the only one.  However, Michelle Obama has also ruled out running:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/michelle-obama-president-sxsw/index.html

Oh right, I heard about that.

[Mr. Morden]

On another note, it occurs to me that Booker faces a Rand Paul problem in 2020: He's up for reelection for his Senate seat that year.  And the primary for both Senate and President is the same day.  Can he legally run for both offices at the same time?  Would he actually do so?

OTOH, the NJ primary isn't until June, and the filing deadline is early April.  Presumably he could run for president, and the nomination will most like be decided by the end of March anyway, so he would know whether he needs to drop out of the race to run for Senate or not.

[Figueira]

There probably isn't a huge risk of losing that Senate seat in New Jersey (compared to Florida, where that was considered a real risk for the GOP), so the only issue is if Booker himself wants to stay in the Senate after 2020.

This is also an issue for Coons, Franken, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin. Most of those people are definitely not running though I guess all of those people could theoretically be VP choices. I don't know what the laws say in all of those states.

[Mr. Morden]

This is also an issue for Coons, Klobuchar, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin.

Klobuchar's seat isn't up in 2020.  Franken's seat is up that year.

[onejayhawk]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

That's assuming he doesn't get primaried in 2018.

Yeh. Right. Tell us another funny story. Ted's a hero in Texas. Also, no one comes close to his level of organization and effort.

Given the vigor with which he pursued this primary season, 2020 is a real possibility for Cruz. I do not see the Donald running twice. The one major exception is if he gets tapped for SCOTUS.

[Figueira]

This is also an issue for Coons, Klobuchar, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin.

Klobuchar's seat isn't up in 2020.  Franken's seat is up that year.

Whoops, I knew that. Let me edit.

[Sedona]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

That's assuming he doesn't get primaried in 2018.

Yeh. Right. Tell us another funny story. Ted's a hero in Texas. Also, no one comes close to his level of organization and effort.

Given the vigor with which he pursued this primary season, 2020 is a real possibility for Cruz. I do not see the Donald running twice. The one major exception is if he gets tapped for SCOTUS.

Cruz has a negative approval rating in Texas (though still positive, but relatively bad, among Republicans), and polls show that Rick Perry would beat him by nine points if he ran in the primary.  I would still bet my money on Cruz surviving a primary challenge, but stranger things have happened (like the election we just had).

[onejayhawk]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

That's assuming he doesn't get primaried in 2018.

Yeh. Right. Tell us another funny story. Ted's a hero in Texas. Also, no one comes close to his level of organization and effort.

Given the vigor with which he pursued this primary season, 2020 is a real possibility for Cruz. I do not see the Donald running twice. The one major exception is if he gets tapped for SCOTUS.

Cruz has a negative approval rating in Texas (though still positive, but relatively bad, among Republicans), and polls show that Rick Perry would beat him by nine points if he ran in the primary.  I would still bet my money on Cruz surviving a primary challenge, but stranger things have happened (like the election we just had).

I bet that was not taken recently. Cruz' run at Trump in the primaries improved his standing significantly. Now that Trump is President-elect, Cruz can expect a higher profile in the Congress.

Perry really is a joke at this point.

J

[Mr. Morden]

What are Julian Castro’s post-Obama admin. plans?

http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Castro-has-no-immediate-plans-to-run-for-office-10605120.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As the story notes, Julian’s brother Juaquin is considering running for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018.

[Confused Democrat]

What are Julian Castro’s post-Obama admin. plans?

http://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Castro-has-no-immediate-plans-to-run-for-office-10605120.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As the story notes, Julian’s brother Juaquin is considering running for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018.

I didn't believe Julian Castro was qualified to be Hillary's VP. What the hell makes him think he's qualified to be POTUS?

[Mr. Morden]

This is weird.  The South Carolina press is reporting on rumors that people are quietly urging Tim Scott to be ready to run for president in 2020 just in case this whole Donald Trump thing doesn’t work out:

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article115620113.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

There are both Cory Booker 2020 and Elizabeth Warren 2020 Facebook pages:

https://www.facebook.com/PresidentCoryBooker/
https://www.facebook.com/VoteforElizabethWarren/

Here is a picture of two people preparing to savagely attack each other on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage:

[KingSweden]

This is weird.  The South Carolina press is reporting on rumors that people are quietly urging Tim Scott to be ready to run for president in 2020 just in case this whole Donald Trump thing doesn’t work out:

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article115620113.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They have contingency plans already? Jesus. There'll be a 25th amendment force out at this rate within the year. I have no doubts most Republicans would not hesitate to kick Trump to the curb now that he's delivered them the Oval Office

[Mr. Morden]

Here's another picture of people preparing to tear each other's throats out on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage in a few years:

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here's another picture of people preparing to tear each other's throats out on the 2020 Democratic primary debate stage in a few years:

I can't see Harris and Booker running against each other.

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders on Meet the Press this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

He was on Face the Nation last week.  Is he going to be a regular fixture on these shows for the duration of Trump's term?