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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
| | |-+  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread  (Read 130374 times)
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« Reply #400 on: November 25, 2016, 08:46:27 pm »

http://draftfranken.com/join-the-team/

DRAFT FRANKEN now has positions open for a National Finance Director, National Media Director, Social Media Coordinator, etc.

Looks like it's getting real and is probably the most sophisticated draft effort as of yet for 2020...though obviously it's crazy early
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« Reply #401 on: November 25, 2016, 09:01:33 pm »

I like Al but he comes off as a better VP than top ticket
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« Reply #402 on: November 26, 2016, 03:05:17 am »

Martin Heinrich (D-NM) (Senator Dreamboat) has taken up the mantle of attacking the Dakota Access Pipeline. He could be a good candidate. Pro-environment and anti-mass surveillance, but he doesn't have a widely publicized or controversial background to my knowledge (that's what holds Sanders and Warren back). This could be a start of Heinrich raising his profile for a 2020 run. He's pretty young (he'll be 49 in 2020), he's had two terms in the House (2009-2013) and will have been in the Senate for about 8 years. He also doesn't have the stigma of being a coastal liberal.

http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline
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« Reply #403 on: November 26, 2016, 11:33:10 am »

Martin Heinrich (D-NM) (Senator Dreamboat) has taken up the mantle of attacking the Dakota Access Pipeline. He could be a good candidate. Pro-environment and anti-mass surveillance, but he doesn't have a widely publicized or controversial background to my knowledge (that's what holds Sanders and Warren back). This could be a start of Heinrich raising his profile for a 2020 run. He's pretty young (he'll be 49 in 2020), he's had two terms in the House (2009-2013) and will have been in the Senate for about 8 years. He also doesn't have the stigma of being a coastal liberal.

http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline

The main drawback of Heinrich in the primary is that he had an A rating from the NRA at one point. Even Sanders has a D-, and it was a major issue for him.

But otherwise, yeah, I think he might be our best bet actually.
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« Reply #404 on: November 26, 2016, 04:23:09 pm »

In my humble opinion, as a former County Chair for Ted Cruz I am going to make my statement on this whole thing:
for the Republicans Trump will run for reelection with Pence at his side, nothing will change there.
Democrats...
Sherrod Brown-Maybe, but he'll be 68 years old, need someone younger I say, but he'll likely run
Cory Booker-definitely a go for a 2020 bid, successful who knows?
Martin Heinrich-wouldn't mind it, young, smart, a possibility for sure
Amy Klobuchar-who knows? she seems indecisive
Andrew Cuomo-I rather doubt it really
Julian Castro-I hope not
Jon Tester-I would truly love, smart, moderate, decent fellow (probably other than Heinrich my favorite democrat)
Elizabeth Warren-likely going to run but how far will she get, being 71 years old?
Deval Patrick-a distinct possibility
Brian Schweitzer-possible, though not likely
Kristen Gillibrand-too much ties to Hillary, but could see her running
Martin O Malley-I think he'll try again, how well he will do? I don't know
Bill DeBlasio-please heavens no!
Kamala Harris-not likely to run until 2024
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« Reply #405 on: November 26, 2016, 05:16:46 pm »

Martin Heinrich (D-NM) (Senator Dreamboat) has taken up the mantle of attacking the Dakota Access Pipeline. He could be a good candidate. Pro-environment and anti-mass surveillance, but he doesn't have a widely publicized or controversial background to my knowledge (that's what holds Sanders and Warren back). This could be a start of Heinrich raising his profile for a 2020 run. He's pretty young (he'll be 49 in 2020), he's had two terms in the House (2009-2013) and will have been in the Senate for about 8 years. He also doesn't have the stigma of being a coastal liberal.

http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline

The main drawback of Heinrich in the primary is that he had an A rating from the NRA at one point. Even Sanders has a D-, and it was a major issue for him.

But otherwise, yeah, I think he might be our best bet actually.

What he has at present is what will matter. Sanders used to have a very high rating. But it just goes to show the NRA has become another political hack group in the past 6-8 years.
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« Reply #406 on: November 26, 2016, 05:48:00 pm »

Because she's dropped hints over the past few years indicating presidential ambition, I kind of figured that Klobuchar would run for reelection for her Senate seat in 2018, before running for prez in 2020.  However, it looks like some are speculating that she may run for governor instead:

http://www.startribune.com/last-election-barely-past-minnesota-s-next-governor-s-race-gets-going/402072125/

Quote
At the top of that list is U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a DFLer who convincingly won two statewide races and repeatedly scores higher in public opinion polls than any other Minnesota politician.

Klobuchar’s Senate seat is also on the ballot in 2018. That leaves her in the enviable position of choosing whether to seek a third term or to jump into the governor’s race, which many DFL insiders believe she is at least considering, though she hasn’t said so publicly. Democrats in Washington are in for a rocky ride under the Trump administration and full GOP control of Congress, and a turn as a state chief executive would diversify Klobuchar’s political résumé.

“There are major issues before Congress, and the senator is focused on her job as United States senator representing the people of Minnesota,” said Justin Buoen, a political adviser to Klobuchar. But a number of possible DFL candidates are waiting to see what Klobuchar does before finalizing their own plans.


Followup to this: Like I said, I'm assuming that if she runs for governor, it means she's not planning to run for president in 2020.  That said, being elected governor might increase her chances of being on the 2020 ticket as VP.  If the Dems nominate a man for prez, then he might feel compelled to pick a woman as his running mate.  And there might be a political calculation to choose a woman from the Midwest rather than from the coasts.  There are only so many such options available, and if Klobuchar could add executive experience to her legislative experience, that could give her an advantage.
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« Reply #407 on: November 26, 2016, 06:48:58 pm »

Trump will be only one-term. He's 70 years old now.
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« Reply #408 on: November 26, 2016, 08:07:36 pm »

I'm thinking about a potential young candidate: Tim Ryan from Ohio

he could pick Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Duckworth, Amy Klobushar or whoever else in his ticket.
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« Reply #409 on: November 27, 2016, 10:29:51 am »

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders on Meet the Press this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

He was on Face the Nation last week.  Is he going to be a regular fixture on these shows for the duration of Trump's term?


Update for this week: Sanders on both This Week and State of the Union.  Yes, I guess he is going to be on the Sunday shows every week.  None of the other 2020 Dems are on this week or last.  Cruz and Rubio are both on the Sunday shows this week though, but I guess they're more like laying the groundwork for 2024.  (Seriously though, I assume they're on in large part because of Castro.)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 10:33:31 am by Mr. Morden »Logged

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« Reply #410 on: November 27, 2016, 01:41:25 pm »

Politico has a story about all the Republican presidential prospects who thought they’d be gearing up for 2020, but are now waiting until 2024 because of Trump’s win:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-republicans-cruz-rubio-231717

They mention a New Hampshire trip taken by Ernst shortly before the election that I hadn’t noticed btw.  But anyway, I don’t see Ernst challenging Trump for the nomination, so I guess that belongs in the future “Who is running in 2024?” thread.  As for the others:

Quote
Cruz appeared almost certain to run in 2020 if Trump lost, Rubio only slightly less so as he deflected questions about whether he would serve a full six-year term. Each senator had built early-state political operations that could have been quickly activated again for a repeat White House run.

Now, it's wait and see for them like everyone else.
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Though he won’t say it, Cruz’s skeptical stance could position him to run in 2020 if Trump’s first term is seen as a failure, particularly among staunch conservatives who preferred Cruz to begin with. But he added that he won't just be a bystander: He says he is “committed to doing anything I can to work with the new administration” to repeal Obamacare and cut regulations.
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[Rand] Paul is taking a different approach, publicly threatening to scuttle a nomination of John Bolton or Rudy Giuliani for secretary of state. Though he’s dialed back his previous description of Trump as a “fake conservative,” Paul is making clear he has no plans of laying down for a Republican president.

“I’ll be the same person I was under President Obama. I won’t change at all,” Paul said.
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« Reply #411 on: November 27, 2016, 03:49:10 pm »

For some strange reason, a reporter asked Rep. Joe Kennedy if he was interested in running for president:

http://wpri.com/2016/11/19/congressman-kennedy-trump-should-work-to-unify-america/

Quote
As for Kennedy himself, he laughed off a question on whether he would consider a presidential run in 2020. Kennedy won re-election earlier this month with 70 percent of the vote, and will start his third term in January.
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« Reply #412 on: November 27, 2016, 06:52:03 pm »

For some strange reason, a reporter asked Rep. Joe Kennedy if he was interested in running for president:

http://wpri.com/2016/11/19/congressman-kennedy-trump-should-work-to-unify-america/

Quote
As for Kennedy himself, he laughed off a question on whether he would consider a presidential run in 2020. Kennedy won re-election earlier this month with 70 percent of the vote, and will start his third term in January.


He's a Kennedy. That's why they asked. He'd be someone to watch for higher office in MA though. Maybe Gov in 2018. Baker is pretty moderate and popular from what I recall. Ed Markey is up in 2020; I'm guessing Markey has one more term in him. Warren is up in 2018 and I'm pretty damn sure that she'll be running. Kennedy is stuck for now. Governor would be the easiest route since I assume that he won't be primarying anyone. So, it's highly doubtful that he runs for Pres in 2020.
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« Reply #413 on: November 27, 2016, 06:55:50 pm »

Under the category of “I wasn’t really paying attention to the Dem. 2020 primary implications at the time, but with Trump winning this is suddenly relevant”…..looks like Franken, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Warren all did some campaigning for Clinton and/or Hassan in New Hampshire during the fall campaign:

http://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2016/10/hassan-kuster-gillibrand-and-britton-advocate-for-clinton
https://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy/2016/10/no-re-election-line-franken-and-klobuchar-step-party
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/09/24/elizabeth-warren-rallies-new-hampshire-for-clinton-and-hassan/EFfG16UkVOjTCoV3gWuDOK/story.html

Franken also used his PAC to give $ to Dem. candidates nationwide:

Quote
And, as we’ve noted earlier this year, Franken — through his Midwest Values PAC — has been exceedingly generous to fellow Democrats. He has distributed over $230,000 to 24 Senate candidates, along with $104,000 to 18 House candidates, including seven Minnesotans.

As noted way earlier in this thread, Gillibrand and Klobuchar also campaigned for Clinton in Iowa shortly before the caucuses back at the beginning of the year, as did Booker and Castro, among others.

Booker also campaigned for Clinton in NH before the primary there:

http://www.wmur.com/article/new-jersey-senator-campaigns-for-clinton-in-new-hampshire-1/5206715

Then he talked to the NH delegation at the DNC, and did an interview about his NH visits, saying that he’d “fallen in love” with the state:

http://www.nh1.com/news/booker-tells-nh1-news-nh-is-a-place-that-i-ve-now-fallen-in-love-with-/

Quote
“I really hope so. I’m literally going to do what the Clinton campaign tells me what to do. If they want me to go to New Hampshire, it’s a place that I’ve now fallen in love with, so I hope to come back,” Booker added.

Booker was also asked if he’ll return to New Hampshire in the 2020 or 2024 cycles to campaign for his own White House bid.

“Well I tell you what. You’re going to see me no matter what. It’s a tradition now. God knows what the future holds but I know I’m going to keep fighting for Democrats,” Booker answered.
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« Reply #414 on: November 27, 2016, 08:40:41 pm »

Addendum to the previous message: Looks like O'Malley also campaigned for Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire over the summer:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-is-headed-back-to-iowa-for-hillary-clinton-20160622-story.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-martin-o-malley-to-campaign-for-clinton-in-pennsylvania-20160715-story.html

And Booker campaigned for Clinton in the South Carolina primary:

http://www.gettyimages.com/event/presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton-holds-south-carolina-town-hall-events-606998899?#senator-cory-booker-a-democrat-from-new-jersey-speaks-during-a-town-picture-id512312102

So this year so far, we have the following early state visits:

Booker: IA, NH, & SC
Julian Castro: IA (when he was in the running for VP)
de Blasio: IA
Franken: NH
Gillibrand: IA & NH
Kaine: IA, NH, & SC (but he was first running for VP, and then the VP nominee, so what do you expect?)
Klobuchar: IA & NH
O’Malley: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Sanders: IA & NH (not just when he was running for president himself, but during the GE campaign for Clinton)
Warren: NH

Then at the DNC over the summer, we had:

Booker: spoke to the IA and NH delegations
Joaquin Castro: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
Julian Castro: spoke to the IA delegation
Klobuchar: spoke to the IA and SC delegations
O’Malley: spoke to the IA delegation
Sanders: spoke to the IA delegation
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« Reply #415 on: November 27, 2016, 08:44:17 pm »

^Sanders campaigned for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire during the general election as well.
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« Reply #416 on: November 27, 2016, 08:49:23 pm »

^Sanders campaigned for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire during the general election as well.

OK, added that.
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« Reply #417 on: November 28, 2016, 09:30:26 am »

Maria Comella, a former Christie aide (and operative in previous Republican presidential campaigns) who ended up backing Clinton over Trump this year, has gone to work for Cuomo:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/christie-aide-advising-cuomo-article-1.2888935

Quote
A long-time Republican player, Comella made headlines after breaking with Christie by publicly supporting Democrat Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.

She was a top communications and policy advisor to Christie in the governor’s office and for his failed 2016 presidential campaign. She previously worked on presidential campaigns for George W. Bush, Sarah Palin, and Rudy Giuliani.

Her hiring by Cuomo has raised eyebrows. Cuomo has been criticized by some fellow Dems of being too close to Republicans, particularly in the state Senate. He lured two top aides away from the state Senate Republicans this past year and in 2014  hired veteran GOP operative Susan Del Percio, who has since left the administration.

“I don’t know what he is,” said one Dem of Cuomo.

Cuomo has been mentioned as a potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and it's likely Comella and her knowledge of national politics is viewed as a plus.
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« Reply #418 on: November 28, 2016, 09:59:34 am »

Fournier says Clinton is keeping her options open.
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« Reply #419 on: November 28, 2016, 11:21:56 am »


Lol sure. Also, it's not fair at all to say Clinton is the one raising doubts about the election's legitimacy.
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« Reply #420 on: November 28, 2016, 11:29:52 am »


Reminds me of Kerry in 2008 if true.
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« Reply #421 on: November 28, 2016, 11:54:15 am »


Now she just needs to make a botched joke about being stuck in Iraq.
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« Reply #422 on: November 28, 2016, 02:21:42 pm »

I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.
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« Reply #423 on: November 28, 2016, 02:40:14 pm »

I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.

That would be the Adlai Stevenson route. The Grover Cleveland route would be nominating Jimmy Carter.
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« Reply #424 on: November 28, 2016, 02:47:12 pm »

I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.

That would be the Adlai Stevenson route. The Grover Cleveland route would be nominating Jimmy Carter.

It would be the Stevenson route in the sense that she didnt win, but the Cleveland route in the sense that she won the popular vote and ran again.
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