The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[The Other Castro]

^Malloy was also speaking to a bunch of state delegations at the DNC this year. I was at North Carolina's delegate breakfast one morning, and when he walked in he sat right next to me. We got to talk for a bit.

#Malloy2020

I'm surprised because he seems like a major dick. Lindsey Graham was a real dick when I met him.

He's really nice in person. I've met him a few times.

[Mr. Morden]

At some point, I may go through all the leadership PACs for each of the potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.  E.g., Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren all have leadership PACs…

Booker: “CoryPAC”, contributed $171,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00497131&cycle=2016

Gillibrand: “Off the Sidelines”, contributed $565,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00525600&cycle=2016

Klobuchar: “Follow the North Star Fund”, contributed $167,500 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00431874&cycle=2016

Warren: “PAC for a Level Playing Field”, contributed $190,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00540195&cycle=2016

Gillibrand’s PAC is different in that 1) it only donates to women candidates, and 2) most of its money goes to House candidates.  The Booker, Klobuchar, and Warren PACs mostly donated to Senate candidates, with just a few token House candidates included as well.  The Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar PACs all donated to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as well, while Warren’s PAC didn’t.

Senate candidates who got donations from all four of these PACs:

Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Kamala Harris (CA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Kate McGinty (PA)
Patty Murray (WA)

In early state (IA/NH) action, Warren’s PAC was the only one to donate to Patty Judge (IA).  And Gillibrand’s PAC gave to House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s Martin O’Malley’s “O’ Say Can You See PAC” for comparison:

https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00525220

Since it was mostly concerned with getting O’Malley elected president, it didn’t actually give that much money to other Democratic candidates, contributing just $27,700 to other Dems this cycle.  Out of the 12 candidates to receive $ from this PAC, 5 were running in Iowa. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jack Fellure is running for the republican nomination again (he was the prohibition nominee a few cycles ago): http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/838/201611070300117838/201611070300117838.pdf

Here's something on Kander: http://forward.com/news/national/355832/jason-kander-iowa-bound-does-the-jewish-pol-have-presidential-ambitions/

And Steyer: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/28/does-left-wing-billionaire-tom-steyer-plan-on-trumping-dems-in-2020/

[Shadows]

Gillibrand is pleading to Hillary donors for their support to mount a run for 2020 - She is Hillary II IMO.

Booker also seems interested as does Warren.

But if Biden & Bernie run this will be a 2 horse race & all these vanilla midgets will struggle to reach even 10%.

[Mr. Morden]

Another possible indicator….all of these guys wrote books (in most cases, memoirs) that came out between 2014 and 2016:

Booker
Cuomo
Gillibrand
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
Warren

Just saying…most US Senators and Governors didn’t come out with books in the last few years, but these folks did.  It’s the sort of thing that could certainly be read as a sign of national ambitions.  In at least some cases, they might have been thinking about running in 2016 should Clinton choose not to run.  But if they thought about running in ’16, then ’20 is presumably a possibility as well.

[Mr. Morden]

One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

[Figueira]

One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

I think he might win a state, but I have no idea which one. Maine? Arkansas?

[The Other Castro]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/12/08/martin-omalley-to-return-to-iowa-for-lykam-special-election-help/

[Mike67]

I think Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders will both run for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 while I think Ted Cruz will challenge President Donald Trump in the 2020 GOP Primaries. I think Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic Nomination even though Joe Biden will have the backing of Obama and other Washington Insiders. I think President Trump will beat Ted Cruz easily in the 2020 GOP Primaries. I think Donald Trump will win a second term as President by beating Bernie Sanders in a close Election in 2020.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Someone else who did some campaign events for Clinton in early primary states this past year: Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.  Villaraigosa briefly flirted with running for president himself in 2016 (back when Clinton was nominally undecided on running, so the prospect of a more wide open contests existed), and now chairs the “Latino Victory Fund”, “a PAC that supports candidates who “reflect Latino values,” according to the group’s website.”

He did events for Clinton in the primaries in various states, including early states Iowa and Nevada:

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160314/former-la-mayor-antonio-villaraigosa-stumps-for-clinton-slams-trump

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What about a return to elected office?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If it helps, he's running for Governor of California in 2018:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-governor-villaraigosa-20161110-story.html

He'd need this to be VICE President.

[Mike67]

If a Republican wins, Julian Castro or Sherrod Brown can be possibilities

Watch out for Joe Biden because he'll probably have the backing of Barack Obama

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

[Mike67]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

Do you think Amy Klobuchar will run in 2020? I think it's very possible.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

Do you think Amy Klobuchar will run in 2020? I think it's very possible.

As shown in this thread already, she's dropped a lot of hints in the last few years that she's interested.  Sounds like some are speculating that she might run for governor in 2018 though.  If she does that, it means she's probably not going to run for prez in 2020.

[Mike67]

O'Malley returning to Iowa:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Seventh since the Iowa caucus?  Sheesh, I didn't realize it was that many.  And most of those came when Clinton was leading Trump in the polls, so O'Malley was figuring...what?  That he'd start laying the groundwork for 2024?

I guess, unlike Booker, Cuomo, Klobuchar, etc., O'Malley doesn't have a job, so he's free to hang out in the early states.

Do you think Amy Klobuchar will run in 2020? I think it's very possible.

As shown in this thread already, she's dropped a lot of hints in the last few years that she's interested.  Sounds like some are speculating that she might run for governor in 2018 though.  If she does that, it means she's probably not going to run for prez in 2020.

Thanks for the info,Mr Morden

[Mike67]

At this point, O'Malley is pretty much the Democratic version of Jim Gilmore. Time for him to hang it up for good.

Tax O'Malley would be an easy guy for President Trump to defeat in 2020.

[Kingpoleon]

One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

I think he might win a state, but I have no idea which one. Maine? Arkansas?

Utah??

[Figueira]

One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

I think he might win a state, but I have no idea which one. Maine? Arkansas?

Utah??

That's an interesting possibility. But I think Florida, New Jersey, and North Dakota might be more likely.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is asked about Dean calling her his top choice for 2020.  She says she’s running for reelection in 2018, and “[has] no plans for 2020” (which isn’t exactly a denial):

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/gillibrand-mentioned-among-next-round-of-white-house-hopefuls/article_ad662393-9f96-57bc-9df3-e2bc01f92c22.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mike67]

Gillibrand is asked about Dean calling her his top choice for 2020.  She says she’s running for reelection in 2018, and “[has] no plans for 2020” (which isn’t exactly a denial):

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/gillibrand-mentioned-among-next-round-of-white-house-hopefuls/article_ad662393-9f96-57bc-9df3-e2bc01f92c22.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillibrand seems to me to be a young Hillary Ciinton

[Figueira]

Gillibrand is asked about Dean calling her his top choice for 2020.  She says she’s running for reelection in 2018, and “[has] no plans for 2020” (which isn’t exactly a denial):

http://www.niagara-gazette.com/news/local_news/gillibrand-mentioned-among-next-round-of-white-house-hopefuls/article_ad662393-9f96-57bc-9df3-e2bc01f92c22.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillibrand seems to me to be a young Hillary Ciinton

I think she's perceived as being further left.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently on Wednesday, Biden updated his 2020-ometer reading to "I have no intention of running" (which is not really a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden-no-intention-running-2020

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mike67]

Apparently on Wednesday, Biden updated his 2020-ometer reading to "I have no intention of running" (which is not really a Shermanesque denial):

http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden-no-intention-running-2020

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If Hillary can still walk in 2020 I think there is a fairly strong chance that she will try to run again. I think her ego wont let her accept losing the 2016 Election.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, someone (either Warren herself or perhaps someone looking to promote her) has already scooped up the domain name http://elizabethwarren2020.com .  At present it just takes you to her Senate campaign website.  To be clear, her Senate seat is up in 2018, not 2020.  But someone must have realized that 2020 presidential buzz would eventually lead people to check out elizabethwarren2020.com .