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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread  (Read 113019 times)
Al Franken/Chris Murphy 2020
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1725 on: August 10, 2017, 02:34:30 pm »
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If Klobuchar is running that means Franken is probably seriously out. My king is dead Sad
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« Reply #1726 on: August 10, 2017, 02:39:32 pm »
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Delaney's announcement seems to have kicked the 2020 Democratic primary race into high gear.  Tongue
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« Reply #1727 on: August 10, 2017, 03:13:12 pm »
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Delaney's announcement seems to have kicked the 2020 Democratic primary race into high gear.  Tongue

They have to start early.

They can't wait too long if they want to contain-y the Delaney
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Moderate Republican

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first).
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« Reply #1728 on: August 10, 2017, 03:34:06 pm »
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It's probably time for me to rework my list of potential candidates. First, this is a comprehensive list of pretty much every plausible Democratic candidate by most recent position (in no particular order):

VPs: Biden, Gore
Governors: Bullock, Hickenlooper, Cuomo, O'Malley, Chafee, Patrick, McAuliffe, Brown
Senators: Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, Brown
Representatives: Delaney, Moulton, Ryan, Schiff, Gabbard
Mayors: Garcetti, Landrieu
Other politicians: Castro, Kander, Holder, Kerry, Kennedy, Clinton
Other non-politicians: Zuckerberg, Johnson, Cuban, Schultz, Iger, Steyer

In total, this is 38 names, though many of these people likely will not run. A more helpful list is to sort them into categories of likelihood.

Categories of Likelihood:

1. Declared: 1
-Congressman John Delaney (MD-6)

2. Senators and Governors under 70 who have expressed serious interest: 10
-Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
-Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN)
-Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
-Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
-Governor Martin O'Malley (MD)
-Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)
-Governor Steve Bullock (MT)
-Governor John Hickenlooper (CO)
-Governor Terry McAuliffe (VA)

3. Senators, Governors, and VPs 70+ who have expressed serious interest: 2
-VP Joe Biden (DE)
-Senator Bernie Sanders (VT)

4. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who have expressed serious interest: 6
-Congressman Tim Ryan (OH-13)
-Congressman Seth Moulton (MA-6)
-Mayor Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans, LA)
-Mayor Eric Garcetti (Los Angeles, CA)
-MO SoS Jason Kander (MO)
-HUD Sec. Julian Castro (TX)

5. Senators and Governors who may be interested: 6
-Senator Chris Murphy (CT)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (OR)
-Senator Sherrod Brown (OH)
-Governor Lincoln Chafee (RI)
-Governor Deval Patrick (MA)
-Governor Jerry Brown (CA)

6. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who may be interested: 5
-Congressman Adam Schiff (CA-28)
-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI-2)
-AG Eric Holder
-Actor Dwayne Johnson
-Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

7. All Others who could plausibly be interested in running, but probably won't run: 8
-SoS Hillary Clinton
-SoS John Kerry
-Businessman Mark Cuban
-VP Al Gore
-Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer
-Ambassador Caroline Kennedy
-Disney CEO Bob Iger
-Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz
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« Reply #1729 on: August 10, 2017, 03:48:42 pm »
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7. All Others who could plausibly be interested in running, but probably won't run: 8
-SoS Hillary Clinton
-SoS John Kerry
-Businessman Mark Cuban
-VP Al Gore
-Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer
-Ambassador Caroline Kennedy
-Disney CEO Bob Iger
-Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz

Inevitably, there are going to be some arbitrary lines drawn in making up such lists, but for me the key dividing line would be "potential candidates for whom there's actually some evidence that they're interested" and "potential candidates for whom the speculation just seems to be based on wishful thinking".  E.g., in the list above, to pick three examples, Cuban publicly says he might run (though I wouldn't necessarily assume that he'd run as a Dem. as opposed to going 3rd party), Kerry was asked about running, and said that he's not ruling anything out, and Iger hasn't said anything publicly, but we have background reporting indicating that he's told those close to him that he's thinking about it.  So for all of those folks, I'd say that there's some evidence of interest, even if we don't think the odds of them actually going through with it are all that great.

OTOH, I'm unclear on what evidence there is of interest on the part of Caroline Kennedy.  The New York Post wrote a story about how she might be interested in running for Congress, but how do you go from there to her being interested in a 2020 presidential run?  I'm unclear on what such speculation is based on.
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« Reply #1730 on: August 10, 2017, 03:54:25 pm »
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I figured I may as well include her just to be safe. I would have broken down the list into more categories, but it seemed a little excessive at that point to go behind seven. I don't think you can make a list without putting your own opinion into it regarding the likelihood of some candidates, so each list could be different but still fair.
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Senator R2D2
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« Reply #1731 on: August 10, 2017, 05:59:57 pm »
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*sigh* I miss the days when I thought Gillibrand would be the best Dem candidate in 2016/2020. How naive I was.

Klobuchar is interesting, though. She strikes me as a 2008 Chris Dodd type; someone who would run just to get their profile up enough to possibly make the VP shortlist.
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« Reply #1732 on: August 10, 2017, 08:00:40 pm »
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Kamala Harris has started emailing her subscribers a survey about topics in the country, at the end asking for a donation and thanks you for "standing up to Trump".

Considering she isn't up for reelection until 2022, Kamala 2020 is all but confirmed at this point.
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AZ Senate - Ward
FL Senate - Sol Invictus
KA Gubernatorial - Kobach
MA Senate - Shiva
MO Senate - Petersen
MT Senate - Rosendale
NJ Gubernatorial - Guadagno
NV Senate - Tarkanian
OH Senate - Mandel
TN Senate - Blackburn
TX Senate - Cruz
VA Gubernatorial - Gillespie
VA Senate - Stewart
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« Reply #1733 on: August 10, 2017, 10:29:46 pm »
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Klobuchar has the most upside she keeps MN safe and is a great fit for WI/IA, geographically she is the best candidate. The problem is she is so boring and bland it will be hard for her to make it thru the primary.
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« Reply #1734 on: August 11, 2017, 06:14:39 am »
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There is nothing to say WI or Iowa people care for Klobuchar. Even Hillary originally is from Illinois right. By this logic Michelle Bachmann will win the Mid-west & Trump would win NY. No1 cares where Klobuchar is from. The only state which Klobuchar brings in play so far is Minnesota where she is an elected Senator. Beyond that, wait for the debates & then the polls.

Anyways, Bernie news (He is going to Michigan) -

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont congressman who won Michigan's presidential primary in 2016, will join U.S. Rep. John Conyers in Detroit on Aug. 22 for a town hall meeting on health care and jobs. The Detroit Democrat said the town hall will be held at 7 p.m. at Fellowship Chapel Church, 7707 W. Outer Drive in Detroit.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/10/bernie-sanders-join-john-conyers-detroit-health-care-town-hall/556768001/
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« Reply #1735 on: August 11, 2017, 10:34:05 am »
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Yet another CEO in the mix for prez?:

http://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2017/08/04/ft-top-firm-ceo-said-may-run-for-president-in-2020/

Quote
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of US investment banking giant JPMorgan Chase, is a Democrat. Former colleagues believe he might throw his hat into the ring to become the next leader. One former JPMorgan senior manager recently let slip to the newspaper that he was convinced Dimon would run for president in 2020.
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Al Franken/Chris Murphy 2020
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« Reply #1736 on: August 11, 2017, 11:53:22 am »
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Oh the JP Morgan CEO could definitely be elected President of the United States...
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« Reply #1737 on: August 11, 2017, 12:54:58 pm »
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Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

Quote
There have been "New Democrats" and "Blue Dogs." This week, a new center-left group — called New Democracy — launched with a slate of mayors, governors and lawmakers aiming to steer the party in a pragmatic direction and win back some right-leaning areas.

The 2020 prospects involved in the launch: Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Delaney, the insanely early entrant into the Democratic presidential race.
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Al Franken/Chris Murphy 2020
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1738 on: August 11, 2017, 01:28:52 pm »
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This kind of New Democracy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democracy

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Governor-elect Ed Gillespie
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« Reply #1739 on: August 11, 2017, 01:35:19 pm »
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Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

Quote
There have been "New Democrats" and "Blue Dogs." This week, a new center-left group — called New Democracy — launched with a slate of mayors, governors and lawmakers aiming to steer the party in a pragmatic direction and win back some right-leaning areas.

The 2020 prospects involved in the launch: Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Delaney, the insanely early entrant into the Democratic presidential race.

Im actually pretty interested to see where this is going.
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Moderate Republican

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first).
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« Reply #1740 on: August 12, 2017, 09:49:34 am »
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Castro won't talk about whether his new PAC means anything re: presidential ambitions:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/brian_chasnoff/article/Castro-s-reservations-11756426.php

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At least for now, Castro is declining to speak to any media about the new PAC and whether it’s a launching pad for a presidential run in 2020.
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Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
AndrewCA🌹
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« Reply #1741 on: August 12, 2017, 05:33:03 pm »
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Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

Quote
There have been "New Democrats" and "Blue Dogs." This week, a new center-left group — called New Democracy — launched with a slate of mayors, governors and lawmakers aiming to steer the party in a pragmatic direction and win back some right-leaning areas.

The 2020 prospects involved in the launch: Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Delaney, the insanely early entrant into the Democratic presidential race.

Per Twitter:

Quote
Dem group @NewDemocracy warned immigrants stoke fears of a "dilution of our national identity." Now they removed it.

But remember guys, "Bernie Bros" are the real racists in the Democratic Party!
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Governor-elect Ed Gillespie
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« Reply #1742 on: August 12, 2017, 05:44:26 pm »
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Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

Quote
There have been "New Democrats" and "Blue Dogs." This week, a new center-left group — called New Democracy — launched with a slate of mayors, governors and lawmakers aiming to steer the party in a pragmatic direction and win back some right-leaning areas.

The 2020 prospects involved in the launch: Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Delaney, the insanely early entrant into the Democratic presidential race.

Per Twitter:

Quote
Dem group @NewDemocracy warned immigrants stoke fears of a "dilution of our national identity." Now they removed it.

But remember guys, "Bernie Bros" are the real racists in the Democratic Party!
Geez. That's a horrible thing to say. It's 100% not a winning strategy.
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Moderate Republican

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first).
Governor-elect Ed Gillespie
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« Reply #1743 on: August 12, 2017, 08:29:55 pm »
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Tom Steyer mulling a political run:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/12/politics/tom-steyer-california-governor-president-trump/index.html

Quote
Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist and Democratic mega-donor, says he is considering a run for political office -- and that he sees the United States in a "complete crisis, honestly," under President Donald Trump.

Steyer, who has pumped more than $160 million into Democratic politics through his NextGen America group in the last two election cycles, didn't rule out a run for California governor in 2018 or for the presidency in 2020.

Quote
"It's not a question of, what is the biggest thing I can do? It's, how can I make the biggest difference from what would otherwise happen?" he said. "And I honestly haven't figured it out, but I think we've spent a lot of time on it, and I think I still have some time to make up my mind."
« Last Edit: August 13, 2017, 09:42:41 am by The Saint »Logged

Moderate Republican

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first).
Parrotguy
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« Reply #1744 on: August 13, 2017, 02:02:07 am »
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Tom Steyer mulling a political run:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/12/politics/tom-steyer-california-governor-president-trump/index.html

Quote
Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist and Democratic mega-donor, says he is considering a run for political office -- and that he sees the United States in a "complete crisis, honestly," under President Donald Trump.

Steyer, who has pumped more than $160 million into Democratic politics through his NextGen America group in the last two election cycles, didn't rule out a run for California governor in 2018 or for the presidency in 2020.
Quote
"It's not a question of, what is the biggest thing I can do? It's, how can I make the biggest difference from what would otherwise happen?" he said. "And I honestly haven't figured it out, but I think we've spent a lot of time on it, and I think I still have some time to make up my mind."

I hope he replaces Feinstein.
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« Reply #1745 on: August 13, 2017, 10:59:12 am »
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De Blasio?
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« Reply #1746 on: August 13, 2017, 11:01:38 am »
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Ewwwwwww.

There's only one mayor I support for president, and he's about 3,000 miles west of that and slow jamming every time the 101 closes down. (I fully acknowledge the fact that even if he does run, I may be one of his only supporters.)

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« Reply #1747 on: August 13, 2017, 11:07:51 am »
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From that story:

Quote
Mayor de Blasio is putting out feelers to run for president, spreading whispers that Bernie Sanders, 75, and Elizabeth Warren, 68, are too old, sources say.

De Blasio, 56, will claim he’s the rightful standard bearer for the progressive wing of the Democratic party.

“He thinks he’s going to coast to re-election victory,” one Dem told me. “His people are sending out overtures asking where he should go next and whom he should meet on a national level.”

But the best part:

Quote
“He thinks he’s the inheritor of the Warren and Sanders legacy,” said a Democratic power broker, “but no one told Warren and Sanders they were dead.”
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Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

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Castro
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« Reply #1748 on: August 13, 2017, 11:50:24 am »
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Bill de Blasio is in way over his head if he thinks he's the heir to the Sanders fortune.
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« Reply #1749 on: August 13, 2017, 05:42:10 pm »
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Tom Steyer mulling a political run:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/12/politics/tom-steyer-california-governor-president-trump/index.html

Quote
Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist and Democratic mega-donor, says he is considering a run for political office -- and that he sees the United States in a "complete crisis, honestly," under President Donald Trump.

Steyer, who has pumped more than $160 million into Democratic politics through his NextGen America group in the last two election cycles, didn't rule out a run for California governor in 2018 or for the presidency in 2020.
Quote
"It's not a question of, what is the biggest thing I can do? It's, how can I make the biggest difference from what would otherwise happen?" he said. "And I honestly haven't figured it out, but I think we've spent a lot of time on it, and I think I still have some time to make up my mind."

I hope he replaces Feinstein.
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S: 3.7
E: -7.4
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