The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Blackacre]

Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar, and Claire McCaskill are all asked about running for president in 2020:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/313666-cory-booker-kicks-off-2020-maneuvering-in-the-senate

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NNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Blackacre]

I'll believe him when he announces his intent to run for re-election to his senate seat in 2020

[Blackacre]

Politico reports that Nancy Pelosi and Joni Ernst will speak at the Gridiron Club dinner this year:

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/playbook/2017/02/the-backstory-how-trump-got-to-yes-on-gorusch-playbook-exclusive-petraeus-warns-us-scaramucci-under-fire-biden-launches-foundation-bday-caas-michael-kives-218503

While this is an event that often draws folks with presidential ambition, I am not expecting either Pelosi or Ernst to be running in 2020.  Pelosi is even older than Bernie Sanders, and Ernst is highly unlikely to launch a primary challenge against Trump.  Though, as chronicled in this thread, Ernst was doing several national events last year that suggested she might have presidential ambitions.  So maybe she’ll be looking at running in 2024.

What are you talking about? Ernst is running in 2020

For reelex

[Blackacre]

Biden to teach at University of Pennsylvania

Not Delaware???

[Blackacre]

Biden to teach at University of Pennsylvania

Not Delaware???

Delaware has universities?

I kind of saw Biden moving to Pennsylvania or New York or wherever after he left his post.  It's hard to imagine Delaware being a place where people live by choice, you know?

The University of Delaware's a pretty good school

[Blackacre]

Murphy asked about 2020 again:

http://yaledailynews.com/blog/2017/02/23/chris-murphy-talks-politics-in-trump-era/

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That either sounds like "I want to run in 2024 if the Dems lose 2020" or "I want to be the Senate leader that helps the next Dem President achieve their goals"

[Blackacre]

Somebody better drag Brown there

[Blackacre]

WaPo has a new story on Franken:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/al-franken-has-found-a-new-role-in-the-trump-era/2017/03/18/247737bc-0b54-11e7-a15f-a58d4a988474_story.html

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Franken and (to an extent) Chris Murphy have both been pretty clear that they don't intend to run for president and I believe them. I think Murphy's dream job is either Senate Majority Leader or Secretary of State, and Franken seems like he's content with being a career Senator.

Yeah, Franken seems satisfied with his platform as a Senator, and I think he's more interested in governance than campaigning anyway. But that also means that all of his positioning against Trump has been for its own sake, not to build a national profile, and that makes it all the more admirable

[Blackacre]

Biden is the only Dem who could defeat Trump by over 20%. Just think about all the congressional seats that would inevitably come with that. If he doesn't run, he's making a huge mistake.

Here we go again with this. Centrist Dems cannot win. Even Obama got only +7% win with a total economic meltdown in 2008

He's not a centrist

He's a Democrat whose main accomplishment is passing Heritage Foundation' healthcare bill. In what world is he not a centrist?

The heritage foundation bill didn't have a public option in it. The public option was included in the PPACA until it couldn't clear the 60 vote threshold when Lieberman said he wouldn't vote for the bill if it included a public option.

Obama never intended on passing a public option. That whole story with Liberman is just a fluff piece as the Public Option was passable with 51 votes under reconciliation. Obama, who received $10s of millions from various health insurance+pharmaceutical lobbies during his run, refused to bring up a public option for a simple vote under reconciliation.

Democrats keep playing this game with their voting base of always dangling a carrot in front of them then yanking it back. Hence why the party is hollowed out and nobody even bother's showing up anymore (2014 mid-terms had the lowest turnout in US History)

There's no way in Hell you could've passed the PPACA through reconciliation unless you completely nuked the filibuster which opens up a whole nother can of worms. You'd basically turn the senate into a smaller House of Reps which sounds great until the GOP get a trifecta and pass a slew of conservative  agenda items with only 51 votes.

Well...it was possible:

Sanders: Senate has the votes to pass public option via reconciliation
BY JORDAN FABIAN - 02/25/10 04:16 PM EST

Yeah it's possible by nuking the filibuster. Speaker Ryan couldn't even get rid of the lines around the states in regards to insurance competition due to that initiative having to pass the 60 vote threshold. The PPACA with or without the public option was always gonna have to pass the 60 vote threshold.

If Democrats ever win a structural advantage similar to the one they had during the New Deal days then they may as well junk the filibuster and cuck the Republicans repeatedly

When that happened, we might. But we didn't have one in 2009.

Even if we did manage to use reconciliation to get the public option, btw, it would have gone away after the 10 year budget window. Which would have created a looming nightmare similar to the fiscal cliff at the end of fiscal year 2020. We'd need a trifecta by then or else we'd be screwed

[Blackacre]

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As if Jeff Merkley. I think Vox was right. Every potential 2020 contender is slowly coming over.

...whelp.

As someone who isn't a fan of medicare-for-all... (or at least has substantial reservations) I know when I'm not on the winning side of an issue. Let's just hope whatever bill gets signed works and doesn't block advancement of that many other issues.

[Blackacre]

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As if Jeff Merkley. I think Vox was right. Every potential 2020 contender is slowly coming over.

...whelp.

As someone who isn't a fan of medicare-for-all... (or at least has substantial reservations) I know when I'm not on the winning side of an issue. Let's just hope whatever bill gets signed works and doesn't block advancement of that many other issues.

What are your issues with it?

Mainly that getting everyone, especially everyone who has coverage through their employer, onto the new system is going to be messy, and might result in worse care for a lot of people. I'm more a fan of a public option and/or further expansions of Medicaid.