The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Vega]

2020 as it stands does remind me a lot of 1980, but with roles reversed.

[Vega]

Cuomo isn't going to be the nominee. Don't need to worry about that.

4 years ago I might have been worried that he had a shot, but given how damaged goods he is now (he spoke out of prime-time at the DNC, if you recall), he won't bee.

[Vega]

Cuomo will be crushed in the primary. This isn't 1992.

[Vega]

de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

[Vega]

Yeah, let's appoint another corrupt New York Democrat who served in the Clinton administration as the Nominee!

[Vega]

Any rumblings about Cruz? The rumor I heard early on in the summer was that he was preparing to coral potential donors in preparation for a 2020 run regardless of who wins.

Sounds like Clinton in 2013/2014... just saying

Actually, I would enjoy it greatly if Cruz repeated 2016 (but flipped) in 2020. Given how overwhelmed Trump has been so far, I wouldn't be surprised if he declined to run

A lot of Trump supporters are optimistic that he might complete the "holy trinity of Trumpism" (NAFTA, the wall, and Obamacare) by 2020 and turn the keys over to Pence. He himself has hinted that he only wants the job as long as he is needed. I personally want him to serve two full terms, even if it means handing the Presidency over to the Democrats afterwards (second terms always seem to go south) in 2024 because I don't want the exiled establishment Republicans launching a counter-revolution before we become entrenched.

Anywho, Trump being a one term President is almost more likely if he's successful than unsuccessful.

I could see Trump not running in 2020 because he can spin things as "a job done" and not being a career politician, etc.

[Vega]

I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

[Vega]

Fournier says Clinton is keeping her options open.

Reminds me of Kerry in 2008 if true.

[Vega]

Kerry doesn’t rule out running for president again in 2020:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/john-kerry-hasnt-ruled-anything-in-or-anything-out-for-2020-run/article/2615099

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For now though, Kerry has a new job:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/16/us/john-kerry-finds-a-job-as-a-yale-fellow.html

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Yeah, I would definitely watch Kerry. He must be lending some thought to it or otherwise he would dismiss it out of hand.

[Vega]

Meanwhile, Seth Moulton asked about 2020:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/03/30/moulton-calls-russia-biggest-threat-national-security/MGlZ4sRHGcSnQ4ckQPaSEK/story.html

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At some point, we're gonna have to move past the idea that only Senators can run for President. Yes, it makes sense given how large the country is and the difference in fundraising/campaigning required for each job, but the Democrat bench would be infinitely better if we had Moulton, Ruben Gallego, Joe Kennedy and other talented backbenchers also in the mix

I think the problem isn't that they're House members (though that inherently will bring national profile and cash challenges in running for President) but that they have only been in office for a few years. Someone like Richard Gephardt or with an equivalent national profile wouldn't have as much of a problem.