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  WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied.
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Author Topic: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied.  (Read 2230 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: March 31, 2016, 09:29:37 am »

Sanders 49%
Clinton 43%

Cruz 38%
Trump 37%
Kasich 17%

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715544664166764544
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715545605087608832
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2016, 09:32:01 am »

I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2016, 09:43:33 am »

I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier

I'd trust Marquette in WI before anyone else, at all. Believe me, Wisconsin is not a good fit for Trump. Trump bombed in IA, came in third in MN. Wisconsin is much more in line with those states than IL.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2016, 09:55:48 am »

I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier

I'd trust Marquette in WI before anyone else, at all. Believe me, Wisconsin is not a good fit for Trump. Trump bombed in IA, came in third in MN. Wisconsin is much more in line with those states than IL.

I generally agree, but the PPP senate numbers look more in line with what I'd expect than Marquette's.  I think Cruz will win, just not by 10
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2016, 10:56:28 am »

Hillary's sabre-rattlers over at PPP have her down 6? 

Looks like my 56-43 Sanders prediction is going to be right on the money.  The Northwest of Cheeseville is LOVING the Bern. 
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2016, 10:58:53 am »

I don't believe Trump is tied first gold here, the state seems like a bad fit for him.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2016, 11:15:17 am »

Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here!
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2016, 11:18:20 am »

Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though.
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Volrath50
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2016, 11:24:24 am »

Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though.

Wasn't he ahead in MO? I recall everyone expecting Cruz to win there and being surprised at Trump's narrow win.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2016, 11:24:58 am »
« Edited: March 31, 2016, 11:38:48 am by Holmes »

Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here!

How much did you have riding on this?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2016, 11:26:55 am »

Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here!

You're probably fine, I'm not sure of a time where Cruz has led a state in a poll but ended up losing.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2016, 11:31:22 am »

Marquette an outlier.  This is close to Emerson: 36 Cruz, 35 Trump, 19 Kasich
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2016, 11:36:02 am »

Interesting: Cruz does better with crossover Democrats than Trump by a margin of 51-30
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2016, 11:41:03 am »

Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though.

Wasn't he ahead in MO? I recall everyone expecting Cruz to win there and being surprised at Trump's narrow win.

I think the few MO polls that came out showed a slight Trump lead, but many (myself included) expected the demographics to favor Cruz.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2016, 11:43:47 am »

Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42.
If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2016, 01:18:37 pm »

This poll has Sanders winning African Americans 51-40.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2016, 01:51:39 pm »

This poll has Sanders winning African Americans 51-40.

Small subgroup. Don't worry about it
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2016, 02:00:03 pm »

Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42.
If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. 
There's a caveat: Closed primaries encourage independents to register as Democrats or Republicans, which would potentially make New York Democrats more favorable to Sanders than they otherwise would be.

Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2016, 02:04:26 pm »

Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42.
If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. 
There's a caveat: Closed primaries encourage independents to register as Democrats or Republicans, which would potentially make New York Democrats more favorable to Sanders than they otherwise would be.

Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest.

Exactly, if you are an independent in a closed primary state you are going to have to pick the party that you at least somewhat align with if you want to participate. Totally different from states that don't have any party registration like Wisconsin. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2016, 02:47:28 pm »

The GOP side seems to be truly a race, with Cruz perhaps favored. The Dem side is now all about the size of Sanders margin.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2016, 02:48:30 pm »

Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42.
If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. 
There's a caveat: Closed primaries encourage independents to register as Democrats or Republicans, which would potentially make New York Democrats more favorable to Sanders than they otherwise would be.

Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest.

I answered that elsewhere: the 2008 exit poll shows that just 12% of New York Democratic primary voters declared that they were "independents".
Much fewer than the 30-35% who usually take part in open primaries.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2016, 06:06:43 pm »

Man, would it be sweet if Trump could pull of WI. Unlikely, as it is in the heart of his weakest region in the country, but it might just shut up these haters for maybe a day, and yeah, it would clinch it with NY and the bulk of the northeast/mid-atlantic up next.
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marty
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2016, 06:09:10 pm »

Man, would it be sweet if Trump could pull of WI. Unlikely, as it is in the heart of his weakest region in the country, but it might just shut up these haters for maybe a day, and yeah, it would clinch it with NY and the bulk of the northeast/mid-atlantic up next.

not even selzer/dmr was off by as much as is required for MU to be if trump were to win.

Has trump won ANY races where the polls showed him tied or slightly losing? OTOH, has Cruz LOST any states where he was up or tied?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2016, 01:15:00 pm »

I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier

No, this is an outlier.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2016, 01:17:34 pm »

Hillary's sabre-rattlers over at PPP have her down 6? 

Looks like my 56-43 Sanders prediction is going to be right on the money.  The Northwest of Cheeseville is LOVING the Bern. 

Bashing PPP as Hillary hacks didn't work out so well in Missouri. Tongue

Even the Hillary sabre-rattlers over at Putrid Pathetic Polling can't hold back the Show-Me state from FEELIN THE BERN!
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