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  FINAL EMERSON WI POLL: Cruz +5, Sanders +8
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Author Topic: FINAL EMERSON WI POLL: Cruz +5, Sanders +8  (Read 3551 times)
marty
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« on: April 04, 2016, 12:08:01 am »

Both candidates have expanded their leads compared to last emerson poll


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_467ac76d49a447e58bf894d49a8df939.pdf
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2016, 12:14:47 am »

Clinton lead in the last poll, ftr, but I'm not sure it means a whole lot. This pollster is a bit...
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2016, 12:17:30 am »

Sounds like it could be right but its Emerson.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2016, 12:20:41 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2016, 12:21:54 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


Yeah, if that were the case Sanders would be up alot more than 8.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2016, 12:23:21 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


How can 10% of early voters be undecided/other?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2016, 12:24:51 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


How can 10% of early voters be undecided/other?

Could be that they refused to say, though I don't know.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2016, 12:26:47 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


How can 10% of early voters be undecided/other?

Could be that they refused to say, though I don't know.

Yeah, some people get defensive if you ask who they voted for. It's different than responding to a poll about who you are going to vote for.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2016, 12:43:37 am »

Cruz winning by only 5 could be a moral victory for Trump.

They also say Sanders is winning every CD but the 4th, which I imagine is possible.

Cruz is winning 5 of the 8 CDs, Trump is winning the 3rd, 2nd and 4th are close among all 3.
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marty
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2016, 12:50:30 am »

Cruz winning by only 5 could be a moral victory for Trump.

They also say Sanders is winning every CD but the 4th, which I imagine is possible.

Cruz is winning 5 of the 8 CDs, Trump is winning the 3rd, 2nd and 4th are close among all 3.

problem for trump is that emerson was showing him up 1 at same time MU and Fox were showing +10. the fact that he is drifting away from that earlier emerson poll could spell trouble.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2016, 12:52:15 am »

Dems

Sanders 51%
Clinton 43%

GOP

Cruz 40%
Trump 35%
Kasich 21%
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« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2016, 12:54:24 am »

While I'm pretty sure Cruz and Bernie are up, Emerson is a terrible pollster.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2016, 01:00:45 am »

This must mean Cruz and Sanders are higher than what this poll suggests.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2016, 01:10:31 am »

Trump leads in CD2 and CD3, Cruz/Kasich tie in CD4, Cruz leads in all other CDs.
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marty
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« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2016, 01:14:40 am »

Trump leads in CD2 and CD3, Cruz/Kasich tie in CD4, Cruz leads in all other CDs.


trump cannot, and I mean CANNOT, get more than 3 delegates out of WI because it would allow him to claim victory.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2016, 01:41:10 am »

Looks like Bernie's got the momentum!
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A Perez
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« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2016, 02:18:34 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


How can 10% of early voters be undecided/other?

Could be that they refused to say, though I don't know.

Yeah, some people get defensive if you ask who they voted for. It's different than responding to a poll about who you are going to vote for.
Polls are anonymous. People don't care to say who they voted for. Nobody knows who they are.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2016, 07:38:36 am »


Sanders didn't even have a lead in their last poll. What a ridiculous swing. Emerson is trash.
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: April 04, 2016, 08:27:44 am »
« Edited: April 04, 2016, 08:31:59 am by Torie »

Trump leads in CD2 and CD3, Cruz/Kasich tie in CD4, Cruz leads in all other CDs.


Surprising Trump is trailing in WI-07. That was slotted to be his best CD. But then the Wausau area (a major population center in the district) is heavily German, and the area quite religious, and thus perhaps "socially connected" rather than anomic, and thus more immune to Trump's siren song. And presumably St. Croix (another population node) has a Scandinavian flavor to it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: April 04, 2016, 08:37:10 am »

Trump leads in CD2 and CD3, Cruz/Kasich tie in CD4, Cruz leads in all other CDs.


Surprising Trump is trailing in WI-07. That was slotted to be his best CD. But then the Wausau area (a major population center in the district) is heavily German, and the area quite religious, and thus perhaps "socially connected" rather than anomic, and thus more immune to Trump's siren song. And presumably St. Croix (another population node) has a Scandinavian flavor to it.

With 8 congressional districts in the state, the MoE on each individual CD is going to be huge.  The CD crosstabs are fun, but I wouldn't treat them as gospel.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: April 04, 2016, 08:54:41 am »

Trump leads in CD2 and CD3, Cruz/Kasich tie in CD4, Cruz leads in all other CDs.


Surprising Trump is trailing in WI-07. That was slotted to be his best CD. But then the Wausau area (a major population center in the district) is heavily German, and the area quite religious, and thus perhaps "socially connected" rather than anomic, and thus more immune to Trump's siren song. And presumably St. Croix (another population node) has a Scandinavian flavor to it.

With 8 congressional districts in the state, the MoE on each individual CD is going to be huge.  The CD crosstabs are fun, but I wouldn't treat them as gospel.


You're no fun at all Morden. Party pooper!
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Shadows
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« Reply #21 on: April 04, 2016, 09:01:29 am »

March 30-April 3rd - Could suggest a recent surge.

Look I feel Emerson is terrible, mostly because it does landlines only. So that favors Clinton. But this poll a Sanders 55-45 looks reasonable.

If the early voting numbers hold this will be a landslide. Sanders also leads 57-38 among 35-54 & is only down by 11 points among 55-74!

I still don't buy Emerson but I am sticking to a Sanders 15-18% victory in Wisconsin

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2016, 09:35:32 am »

"Early voting also favors Sanders 52% to 38%."


How can 10% of early voters be undecided/other?

Could be that they refused to say, though I don't know.

Yeah, some people get defensive if you ask who they voted for. It's different than responding to a poll about who you are going to vote for.
Polls are anonymous. People don't care to say who they voted for. Nobody knows who they are.

Shy Tory Factor? Bradley Effect?
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2016, 12:03:07 pm »

From the link:

"If Cruz is the primary winner, he will win 15 delegates, Cruz is also ahead in five of the
eight congressional districts where three delegates will be awarded to the winner of
each district."

These guys at Emerson really know their stuff.

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Flake
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2016, 10:43:12 pm »

This pretty much adds credibility to the claim that the % Trump is at in a given poll is the actual result he'll get, regardless of the margin.
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