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Author Topic: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8  (Read 2348 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: April 04, 2016, 04:06:16 pm »

http://abc7.com/politics/trump-still-leads-in-ca-despite-negative-views-poll-shows/1275688/

Republicans:

Trump - 40%
Cruz - 32%
Kasich - 17%

Democrats:

Clinton - 53%
Sanders - 39%
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2016, 04:42:26 pm »

But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc

Anyways, glad to get a California poll
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2016, 04:48:31 pm »

But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2016, 04:50:30 pm »

It's early, but Cruz/Sanders will need a lot of luck to win here.
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2016, 04:51:04 pm »

trump at 40% and the existence of a single clear anti-trump alternative is a small, single-digit trump victory that splits most CDs at best, and realistically probably ends in a narrow, single-digit loss.
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swf541
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2016, 04:54:06 pm »

But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.

I think people may be surprised, the Kasich voters I know lean more towards Trump than Cruz.

also didnt Trump just claim today or yesterday that Kasich was hurting him?
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2016, 04:54:58 pm »

Honestly not sure if an 8 point win would be good enough for Trump.  It really depends on how the CDs pan out.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2016, 04:55:12 pm »

Trump's lead isn't great.
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2016, 04:58:58 pm »

California has no shortage of anti-immigrant conservatives. This is good territory for Trump.
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Castro
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2016, 05:14:07 pm »

My end projection for Trump of 1119 has him winning 100 delegates from California, though I'm not sure what that would be PV wise.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2016, 05:17:27 pm »

Good numbers for Trump. He's coming off arguably his worst week. If it were anyone else the GOP side of this would be way over. The story here is how Cruz cannot catch on, cannot capitalize, cannot motivate, etc. He's just. . . there.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2016, 06:42:50 pm »

But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.

I think people may be surprised, the Kasich voters I know lean more towards Trump than Cruz.

also didnt Trump just claim today or yesterday that Kasich was hurting him?

There's no need to rely on anecdote for this though, when we have several polls that test a hypothetical 2-man race.  Most polls I've seen show that Kasich voters have a more favorable opinion of Cruz than Trump.  And when you poll the 2-man race, most of the polls show that more Kasich voters go to Cruz than Trump.
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« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2016, 09:22:26 pm »

New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2016-04-03

Summary:
Clinton:
53%
Sanders:
39%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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cowboys5xsbs
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« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2016, 10:57:41 pm »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  He has a rough road ahead of him.
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Austin Peterson 2016
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« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2016, 11:02:18 pm »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  He has a rough road ahead of him.

There's a lot of black and brown voters in California. So no.
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Desroko
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« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2016, 11:21:54 pm »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)
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Joshua
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« Reply #16 on: April 04, 2016, 11:36:19 pm »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

Fun fact: California actually used to be one-half Marin until the county was decimated after no one was vaccinated.
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cowboys5xsbs
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« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2016, 01:02:52 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
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Austin Peterson 2016
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« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2016, 01:15:41 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians
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Derpist
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« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2016, 01:22:55 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide and doing much better with black voters outside of the South. And his performance among Latino voters...well, it doesn't seem like anyone is that sure.

California's demographics are unique because it's not actually THAT black (only 6%). However, it is heavily heavily Latino (40%) and Asian (15%). In contrast, Nevada is only 27% Latino.

San Francisco isn't Seattle though. It's a corporatist yuppie hellhole filled with the banksters who would vote Hillary. If Sanders wins the Bay Area, it will probably be off a huge margin among Asian voters. I expect him to sweep the Bay Area but probably lose (overwhelmingly white and rich) Marin County.

I still view California as a genuine tossup.
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Desroko
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« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2016, 01:26:22 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2016, 01:52:09 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

He will probably mention the Hawaii caucuses which are about as indicative of Sanders' strength among Asians as his Oklahoma win is about his popularity among Dixiecrats.
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Desroko
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« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2016, 02:38:49 am »

I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

He will probably mention the Hawaii caucuses which are about as indicative of Sanders' strength among Asians as his Oklahoma win is about his popularity among Dixiecrats.

Leaving aside the implications of "Asian-Americans are alike, amirite?" we don't even have entrance polls for Hawaiian caucusgoers - you know, all 30K of them.
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2016, 06:10:53 am »

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Democratic_caucuses,_2016
https://berniesanders.com/new-poll-shows-sanders-strong-lead-among-asian-americans/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2016, 06:43:19 am »

Crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4114a2c6-213f-4447-8c7b-eb137d8c3312

Dems:
age 18-34: Sanders +16%
age 35-49: Sanders +6%
age 50-64: Clinton +42%
age 65+: Clinton +36%
whites: Clinton +6%
blacks: Clinton +44%
Hispanics: Clinton +11%
Asians: Clinton +36%
Central Valley: Clinton +29%
Greater L.A.: Sanders +1%
Inland Empire: Clinton +38%
Bay Area: Clinton +9%

GOP:
age 18-34: Cruz +2% over Kasich
age 35-49: Trump +9% over Cruz
age 50-64: Trump +30% over Cruz
age 65+: Trump +3% over Cruz
whites: Trump +11% over Cruz
blacks: no data because #s are too small
Hispanics: Cruz +15% over Trump
Asians: Trump +29% over Cruz
Central Valley: Trump +13% over Cruz
Greater L.A.: Trump +15% over Cruz
Inland Empire: Cruz +13% over Trump
Bay Area: Kasich +7% over Trump
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