Icelandic parliamentary election 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, another disappointment.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just a reminder, pretty much everything you would want to know about this election is covered on excruciating detail on AAD.

[Diouf]

Self-description by the Revival-party before the election:

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It seems like Bright Future and Revival is rather similar, with the former leaning centre-left and the latter leaning centre-right. The Independence Party will just have a majority, 32 seats, together with these two parties. This is probably among the more likely scenarios, although a one-seat majority might be deemed to thin as just one defection would make it collapse. But the political differences should be more manageable than most other possible scenarios. 

http://grapevine.is/mag/articles/2016/10/10/where-do-they-want-to-take-us-the-platforms-explained/

[DavidB.]

No, the most likely scenario seems to be a coalition consisting of the Left-Greens, Pirates, Bright Future and Regeneration, supported from the outside by the Social Democratic Alliance, who do not want to govern because they have lost so much. The absolute expert on Icelandic politics, a certain Scandinavian poster who was banned from participating on this forum, agrees with this (see AAD). The reason is that Regeneration explicitly state they do not want to govern with Independence. While there are vast differences in outlook among the Left-Greens and Pirates on the one hand and Regeneration on the other hand, they could probably agree on some sort of a reformist agenda, perhaps including a referendum on EU membership and a proposal for a new constitution.

[Diouf]

No, the most likely scenario seems to be a coalition consisting of the Left-Greens, Pirates, Bright Future and Regeneration, supported from the outside by the Social Democratic Alliance, who do not want to govern because they have lost so much. The absolute expert on Icelandic politics, a certain Scandinavian poster who was banned from participating on this forum, agrees with this (see AAD). The reason is that Regeneration explicitly state they do not want to govern with Independence. While there are vast differences in outlook among the Left-Greens and Pirates on the one hand and Regeneration on the other hand, they could probably agree on some sort of a reformist agenda, perhaps including a referendum on EU membership and a proposal for a new constitution.

Well, just looked there. And the three possible coalitions mentioned are basically the same as those I have described in the two last posts:

There is a centre-right majority with Independence - Revival - Progressive

I guess Revival could try to form a sort of modernizing majority with the left wing parties

It seems like Bright Future and Revival is rather similar, with the former leaning centre-left and the latter leaning centre-right. The Independence Party will just have a majority, 32 seats, together with these two parties.

[Diouf]

Finally a government in Iceland.

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I'm not sure the EU vote is much of a concession, but will probably take a lot of space in international reporting. The anti-EU parties have a clear majority in parliament, so even a few rebels will not be enough. To not even get started on the very low probability of a yes in a referendum.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14U12T?il=0

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would pro-EU parties make such a big push for membership now? It's pretty clear the EU isn't exactly showing its best talents these days...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Politicus has a huge thread on Iceland on aad right now, and supposedly it's more about the principle than anything else. And yeah, Now that Britain (a huge trading market for Iceland, although I can't remember if it's the biggest) is out, no way Iceland is joining.


Also this may have been one of the lamest elections of last year, considering we all thought we were going to get a crazy experimental government, and ended up with yet another IP HoG with bland liberals Reform. (Ok Bright future have got a bit of fun about them, but still)