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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA- Field Poll: TRUMP 39 Cruz 32
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Author Topic: CA- Field Poll: TRUMP 39 Cruz 32  (Read 2260 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: April 07, 2016, 04:44:06 am »

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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2016, 04:48:55 am »

Kasich 18, Undecided 11 bodes very well; both groups should break very favorably. trump needs a large win here in order to get the delegate majority, and the campaign trajectory here suggests a narrow Cruz win. (That's assuming Kasich doesn't drop out after the mid-Atlantic primaries or Indiana, which I'm increasingly starting to think is a real possibility, especially if he fails to win a state).
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2016, 04:53:17 am »

Looks like Cruz will get a fair number of delegates even if he loses the state.
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chrisras
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2016, 05:23:34 am »

Trump hasn't even started hitting Cruz yet in California.  California Republican primary voters are similar to the Arizona electorate.  At least that's what I've heard on TV a few times.
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Donnie
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2016, 05:39:19 am »

Kasich 18, Undecided 11 bodes very well; both groups should break very favorably. trump needs a large win here in order to get the delegate majority, and the campaign trajectory here suggests a narrow Cruz win. (That's assuming Kasich doesn't drop out after the mid-Atlantic primaries or Indiana, which I'm increasingly starting to think is a real possibility, especially if he fails to win a state).

LOL. "the campaign trajectory" will be straighten up after Trump's wins in NY and the Northeast.
California=Arizona, no way Trump will lose this state to the Zodiac.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2016, 06:28:03 am »

The regional breakdown looks good for Cruz, especially if a lot of the Bay Area
Kasich support flows to him. Cruz is likely winning all those LA County Hispanic districts with few Republicans, not Trump. He will also win the Central Valley districts except for perhaps the Sacramento area districts.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2016, 08:39:51 am »

I still think that Cruz is overestimated here. I dont know that many Republicans, but the ones I know all support the Trumpster (with one exception for Kasich).
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2016, 09:01:56 am »

New Poll: California President by Field Research Corporation on 2016-04-04

Summary:
Trump:
39%
Cruz:
32%
Kasich:
18%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2016, 11:31:31 am »

When Kasich ties Cruz in the northeast and the undecideds just decline to turn out, we'll see what consolidation happens.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2016, 12:26:58 pm »

The delegate math in California is rather fascinating. Looks like Trump will clean up in rural California, but who will win those super-Democratic Bay Area and LAX counties? For maybe the first time in recent Republican primary history, they are disproportionately important.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2016, 12:32:02 pm »

This will come down to whether or not Kasich collapses.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2016, 01:36:17 pm »

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Again, Trump below 40 in CA, means he's vulnerable here as well. Trump *cannot* afford to split delegates with Cruz.

If Trump gets under 100 delegates in CA, he's finished.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2016, 03:11:38 pm »

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Again, Trump below 40 in CA, means he's vulnerable here as well. Trump *cannot* afford to split delegates with Cruz.

If Trump gets under 100 delegates in CA, he's finished.

TRUMP will easily get 45%, if not more.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2016, 06:30:18 pm »

The continuing story is not that Trump is barely at 40 in yet another state he is positioned to win, the story is that Cruz is barely at 30 at this stage! If Cruz would wind up with the nomination, he would have to be among the very weakest of candidates, if not the weakest, to ever get a major party nod, I would think, and probably by a lot.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2016, 06:31:34 pm »

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No Republican has ever won 12 states and lost. Cruz will have 12 with Colorado.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2016, 07:06:55 pm »

yeah but Trump has won way more than 12?
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2016, 08:05:44 pm »

Pretty sure this is considered the Gold Standard for California polls.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2016, 08:07:29 pm »

yeah but Trump has won way more than 12?

Yup.

The Democrats haven't ever nominated someone who wasn't a Christian male for President. Some rules  end every election.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2016, 08:07:42 pm »

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That he has, like Ford.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2016, 10:50:19 pm »

The continuing story is not that Trump is barely at 40 in yet another state he is positioned to win, the story is that Cruz is barely at 30 at this stage! If Cruz would wind up with the nomination, he would have to be among the very weakest of candidates, if not the weakest, to ever get a major party nod, I would think, and probably by a lot.

But same with Trump.  Trump has 37% of the total primary vote so far.  Maybe he'll get to ~40% when it's all over, which would mean that he'd have the smallest share of the popular vote for the leading candidate for the nomination since....Jimmy Carter in 1976, and maybe before that?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2016, 12:40:03 am »

The continuing story is not that Trump is barely at 40 in yet another state he is positioned to win, the story is that Cruz is barely at 30 at this stage! If Cruz would wind up with the nomination, he would have to be among the very weakest of candidates, if not the weakest, to ever get a major party nod, I would think, and probably by a lot.

But same with Trump.  Trump has 37% of the total primary vote so far.  Maybe he'll get to ~40% when it's all over, which would mean that he'd have the smallest share of the popular vote for the leading candidate for the nomination since....Jimmy Carter in 1976, and maybe before that?


I think Mondale had less in 1984, 38% IIRC.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2016, 02:16:21 am »

The continuing story is not that Trump is barely at 40 in yet another state he is positioned to win, the story is that Cruz is barely at 30 at this stage! If Cruz would wind up with the nomination, he would have to be among the very weakest of candidates, if not the weakest, to ever get a major party nod, I would think, and probably by a lot.

But same with Trump.  Trump has 37% of the total primary vote so far.  Maybe he'll get to ~40% when it's all over, which would mean that he'd have the smallest share of the popular vote for the leading candidate for the nomination since....Jimmy Carter in 1976, and maybe before that?


I think Mondale had less in 1984, 38% IIRC.

Ah, good point.  Yes, Trump will most likely end up beating Mondale's %age.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2016, 10:19:28 pm »

Enjoy the primary season. This is exceptional for the republican side.
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