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  CA - Field Poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 41
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Author Topic: CA - Field Poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 41  (Read 2605 times)
yankeesfan
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« on: April 07, 2016, 10:58:34 pm »
« edited: April 07, 2016, 11:00:06 pm by yankeesfan »

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article70613117.html

Clinton 47
Sanders 41
Undecided/Other 12

There's a picture that I'd like to embed but I can't on my iPad
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marty
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2016, 10:59:38 pm »

whoa
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2016, 11:00:25 pm »

Wow where is a itshappening.gif when you need it
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2016, 11:02:46 pm »

Img
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RJEvans
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2016, 11:05:07 pm »

Looks about right to me. She was +8 in '08 I think.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2016, 11:06:09 pm »

Img

Fascinating crosstabs. And this is in line with the other polling we have seen.
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2016, 11:07:26 pm »

It looks like the democratic race is much more even across most of the state. compare that with GOP side where one candidate leads widely depending on region.

What's up with the discrepancy?
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RJEvans
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2016, 11:07:37 pm »

Looks about right to me. She was +8 in '08 I think.

Against Barack Obama.  This is against Bernie freakin' Sanders.

I don't understand your point.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2016, 11:10:58 pm »

Damn those whites for not supporting Bernie like Asians do.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2016, 11:16:06 pm »

Seems realistic.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2016, 11:23:56 pm »

Only a 10% lead among independents is not going to do it for Sanders. He's only won states when he carried independents by 20% or more.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2016, 12:15:13 am »

Only a 10% lead among independents is not going to do it for Sanders. He's only won states when he carried independents by 20% or more.

Well, he's obviously going to end up winning independents by more than 10% in the end so Hillary better firm up her support with Democrats here.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2016, 12:20:07 am »

Let's not forget 2008 CA polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2016, 12:23:55 am »

Let's not forget 2008 CA polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

Hillary really outperformed the polls 8 years ago in NH, but it was Bernie who outperformed this time.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2016, 12:26:13 am »

Interesting, though I have a hard time believing there are that many undecided voters.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2016, 12:29:28 am »

Let's not forget 2008 CA polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

Hillary really outperformed the polls 8 years ago in NH, but it was Bernie who outperformed this time.

Plus, Zogby's garbage poll royally screwed up the average. Thankfully, he and his crew don't seem poll that much these days.

SUSA pretty much nailed it!
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Arch
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« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2016, 02:29:52 am »

He has room to grow among Whites, Hispanics, and Asian-Americans.
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Shadows
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2016, 06:59:13 am »

Cross-tabs of % of people in 18-29 & so on?

Look depending on this number, the entire result may chance - If young voters are under-estimated, Hillary gets a bump.

Bernie looks strong among Whites, Latinos & Asians & they constitute the majority in CA. These numbers are very strong for Bernie from Democrats - Even when he wins big he does barely a little better than these numbers in Dem Base.

I have already said way back I am willing to bet on a Bernie win in CA - He will win & if he is competitive then, he will win BIG!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2016, 09:21:46 am »

Anything other than a 20 point Sanders win here is a disaster for him... so, I'll take it. Especially since by that time he'll need to win by 50 points, if NY/PA go Hills.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2016, 03:13:34 pm »

Anything other than a 20 point Sanders win here is a disaster for him... so, I'll take it. Especially since by that time he'll need to win by 50 points, if NY/PA go Hills.


CNN would be a perfect fit for you. It's Establishment, corrupt and ADORES Hillary.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2016, 04:37:31 pm »

Anything other than a 20 point Sanders win here is a disaster for him... so, I'll take it. Especially since by that time he'll need to win by 50 points, if NY/PA go Hills.


CNN would be a perfect fit for you. It's Establishment, corrupt and ADORES Hillary.

Someone is butthurt here.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2016, 04:41:03 pm »

Anything other than a 20 point Sanders win here is a disaster for him... so, I'll take it. Especially since by that time he'll need to win by 50 points, if NY/PA go Hills.


I've worked out a scenario where he only needs a 17 point win.
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Shadows
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« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2016, 08:32:47 pm »

18-29 - 12%

I don't know what the numbers were in 08 but if it is similar to NH or Iowa, Sanders is doing better than this poll.

Anyways fun facts

Sanders with voters Under 40 -
Whites - 62%
Latino - 69%
Whites - 67%

Sanders is doing extremely well with Latino & Asian voters under 40 - Tremendous numbers - It's just that the older lot of those group are voting for Sanders a little less than the older whites are.

I think people have consensus that Sanders can't win mathematically but CA will go to Clinton (according to most Clinton fans by around 10%) - I don't what has changed - He has little chance of winning PD's!

Now we are getting this weird talk of 50 point wins n so on!
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2016, 11:27:17 am »

This is Sanders last stand as he will win all the caucuses.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2016, 06:00:29 pm »

Sorry to burst some bubbles here, but the SUSA poll showing her up 14 is actually more recent if you look at the field dates. Not that it matters since Bernie needs to win this by 20+ points anyway.
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