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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderator: AndrewTX)
  NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54  (Read 3371 times)
dspNY
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« on: April 10, 2016, 08:31:57 am »

Dem electorate looks locked in

85% of Clinton supporters are certain to support her
79% of Sanders supporters are certain to support him
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2016, 08:37:13 am »

Hoping Clinton nears 60. Her base is Philly and NE.

Probably looking at something like 57-43 or 58-42 according to that poll
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2016, 08:43:56 am »

Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2016, 09:05:07 am »
« Edited: April 10, 2016, 09:10:21 am by dspNY »

Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2016, 09:27:47 am »

Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state
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dspNY
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Posts: 2,574
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2016, 09:29:00 am »

Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state.

Also remember that New York has been LOSING congressional districts for the past 40 years which is the ultimate sign of an aging state
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dspNY
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Posts: 2,574
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2016, 11:46:47 am »

If Clinton leads the white vote by 13%, it's gonna be a bigger margin of victory than 16%.

I'm wondering whether Fox folded a lot of the Hispanic demo into White. They should have had a separate Hispanic demo for New York of all places
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