NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[mileslunn]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She likes to compare herself to them but agree.  Sanders was only considered radical by American standards, but he would be fairly mainstream in most other industrialized countries.  Corbyn I meant in terms of ideology but unlike Ashton he does have more a populist appeal to the blue collar and those struggling whereas you are right Ashton is just more your typical keyboard SJW and agree beyond a certain hardcore base her appeal is limited.  I doubt she will win it, but if she does, the Liberals will be laughing all the way to the bank.  She will ensure the centre-left NDP-Liberal swing vote stays with the Liberals and with Scheer not likely to expand much beyond the CPC's base this will make winning 2019 quite easy provided they don't screw up.  That being said I think anyone defeating Trudeau, especially the NDP (the Tories have a somewhat better but still low chance) is unlikely.  Rather the bigger question is does Trudeau keep his majority or get reduced to a minority and if he gets reduced to a minority the NDP could then hold the balance of power.

[the506]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She comes across to me as a right-winger's parody of what a left-wing activist would sound like.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She comes across to me as a right-winger's parody of what a left-wing activist would sound like.

How hilarious is it that on the very day I made that post Ashton apologizes for calling Quebec a  “diverse, multicultural society".

This is why Trump won, folks.

[mileslunn]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She comes across to me as a right-winger's parody of what a left-wing activist would sound like.

Good point and while she is very left wing like Corbyn, Corbyn at least could appeal to the blue collar workers which I think she would have trouble doing.  Otherwise a sizeable portion of UKIP voters in 2015 swung over to Labour in 2017 whereas with Niki Ashton I doubt she could appeal to your Sanders-Trump style voters or UKIP-Labour style voters

How hilarious is it that on the very day I made that post Ashton apologizes for calling Quebec a  “diverse, multicultural society".

This is why Trump won, folks.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Excellent Hébert column on this topic.

[DL]

Excellent Hébert column on this topic.

One thing Hebert avoids discussing is the fact that Trudeau has said absolutely nothing about the discriminatory law being proposed in Quebec, for some reason it's only an issue when a fringe candidate for the NDP leadership fails to unequivocally condemn the Premier of Quebec but no one gives a hoot that the PM of Canada is staying silent and sending out ambiguous signals

[RogueBeaver]

Singh's with Angus on Bill 62.

[Poirot]

I didn't see it coming NDP candidates would all of a sidden start attacking Quebec proposed bill 62. It comes from the provincial Liberals, they have stalled to take action and lower the requirements. They don't forbid wearing of religious symbols for people rin position of authority. They only ask for people to give or get government services to show their face. I will let Couillard explain himself:

Couillard explained that the legislation is not about religion.
“Public services should be given with an open face,” he said. “Why? Not because of religion but because of issues related to communication, safety, and identification. It’s the characteristic of any society that when we talk to each other I see your face, you see mine. This is something that is very distinct from religion.”
“Seeing your face, you seeing mine, is part of a normal and healthy communication, which is quite distinct from religion,” he explained. “The rest of what people want to wear around their neck, on their heads, frankly I don’t care. If they come to work and do a good job, are involved in Quebec, this is what we want.”

He wanta to avoid the religion issue. It's probably an English media issue because the complaints in French media would not be against it, it's good or not enough. Caron's proposal was to not intervene in this provincial debate. It would not be good if there is coverage of the Montreal debate and what comes out is NDP thinks uncovered face in government is unacceptable.

[Jeppe]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

[Jeppe]

Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

This post is gonna look crazy when Niki Ashton randomly wins the leadership race and - even more oddly - the next general election and henceforth places a ban on white people wearing dreadlocks.

America elected Trump, you never know.

[MaxQue]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

[DC Al Fine]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

[DL]

In many ways there is a bit of a "narcissism of small difference" here between the four candidates. All four have expressed their personal opposition to Bill 62. Some have used tougher language than others and Caron has acknowledged that it's a debate that needs to be resolved among quebecers. But substantively it makes no difference which of these four people becomes PM. The Government of Canada doesn't get to arbitrarily revoke provincial laws that it disagrees with. There is some debate as to whether or not Bill 62 or is not in contravention of the Canadian charter of rights and freedoms or the Quebec human  rights act....only the courts can decide that. So in the end we are choosing between four people who agree on this issue but use slightly difference nuances in how they express their opinion

[MaxQue]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

Banning using a government job to prozelytisation ends isn't discrimination. I support grandfathering current employees, through.

[Holmes]

Max, come on.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

This post is gonna look crazy when Niki Ashton randomly wins the leadership race and - even more oddly - the next general election and henceforth places a ban on white people wearing dreadlocks.

This is the greatest post I've ever seen.

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

Banning using a government job to prozelytisation ends isn't discrimination. I support grandfathering current employees, through.

It's not banning "prozelytisation" (which isn't a word), but rather banning Muslims and Sikhs from observing their religion. It's bigotry, plain and simple.

[Poirot]

The Montreal debate was televised on RDI, Radio-Canada's news network. After the debate their  regular political commentators said Caron and Ashton did the best performance.


 

[Zioneer]

Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

This post is gonna look crazy when Niki Ashton randomly wins the leadership race and - even more oddly - the next general election and henceforth places a ban on white people wearing dreadlocks.

This is the greatest post I've ever seen.

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

Banning using a government job to prozelytisation ends isn't discrimination. I support grandfathering current employees, through.

It's not banning "prozelytisation" (which isn't a word), but rather banning Muslims and Sikhs from observing their religion. It's bigotry, plain and simple.

Yeah, I don't see how wearing religious clothing and symbols counts as "proselyting". If they aren't saying anything or handing out religious literature, or anything like that, and are just wearing symbols of their faith, I don't see how a ban on such is justified.

[Poirot]

It seems to me the progressive view is removing religion from public affairs, be free of code of conducts dictated by religion.

Le Devoir is reporting different NDP reactions to proposed bill 62 and Singh's willingness to challende to court. MP Hélène Laverdière who is supporting Singh is comfortable with his position. MP Alexandre Boulerice finds Singh's position too extreme in defense of individual rights. He says his position is more balanced between individual rights and defense of some collective rights and some social norms. Reaction from already critical of Singh ex-MPs: Pierre Dionne Labelle: says it's going more and more difficult to win seats with his position. Labelle finds bill 62 timid and they can't be against something 80% of the ppulation agrees with. Alain Giguère thinks the bill doesn't go far enough and doesn't target all religious symbols.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/506693/la-laicite-s-invite-au-npd

So a diversity of opinions on this topic. 

[Jeppe]

It seems to me the progressive view is removing religion from public affairs, be free of code of conducts dictated by religion.

Le Devoir is reporting different NDP reactions to proposed bill 62 and Singh's willingness to challende to court. MP Hélène Laverdière who is supporting Singh is comfortable with his position. MP Alexandre Boulerice finds Singh's position too extreme in defense of individual rights. He says his position is more balanced between individual rights and defense of some collective rights and some social norms. Reaction from already critical of Singh ex-MPs: Pierre Dionne Labelle: says it's going more and more difficult to win seats with his position. Labelle finds bill 62 timid and they can't be against something 80% of the ppulation agrees with. Alain Giguère thinks the bill doesn't go far enough and doesn't target all religious symbols.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/506693/la-laicite-s-invite-au-npd

So a diversity of opinions on this topic.  

Then why aren't Quebeckers clamoring to have the Catholic cross removed from the Speaker's throne? It's xenophobia and religious intolerance fueling Bill 62.

If Quebec wants to target religious and ethnic minorities, then screw their votes, I'd rather be in a party that doesn't target minorities. I fully support Singh's position on the issue and I hope the courts strike down bill 62 as the gross violation of human rights it actually is.

I don't want the party to pander to xenophobes and racists for votes, that's the Conservative party's agenda, not ours. I hope the rest of my party is principled enough to take the same stand.

[Poirot]

Léger has a poll on the federal political scene in Quebec and it contains questions on the NDP leadership race. (document in English)
http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Politics%20in%20Quebec_August%202017%20-%20EN-FED.pdf

25% are interested in the NDP leadership race. (46% of non francophones, 20% of francophones)

Considering the level of interest I don't know if other questions are meaningful.

Which candidate is preferes for next leader: Don't know 58%, None 22%
Caron 10%, Singh 4%, Angus 3%, Ashton 2%
(but Singh leads among non-franco with 8% before Caron and Ashton at 6%)

The impact of leader with turban: no effect 55%. discourage from voting 28%, encourage to vote for him 2%.

For voting intentions, Léger's question includes the name of the leader and the party.
The current situation using Mulcair's name for NDP leader is Lib 43%, NDP 19%, Bloc 19%, Conservative 15%.   
NDP gets 23% of the franco vote and 9% of the non franco and by region does best outside the Quebec City and Montreal metro areas with 22%.

Using the different candidates names as leader, The Liberals gain 4% with the two frontrunners and would be at 47% while NDP gets 13% with Angus and 11% with Singh. Caron performs better with 16% (and Lib at 46%). Ashton gets 11% (Lib 46%)

So the next leader will have to get known and develop a message to attract voters.

[mileslunn]

Léger has a poll on the federal political scene in Quebec and it contains questions on the NDP leadership race. (document in English)
http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Politics%20in%20Quebec_August%202017%20-%20EN-FED.pdf

25% are interested in the NDP leadership race. (46% of non francophones, 20% of francophones)

Considering the level of interest I don't know if other questions are meaningful.

Which candidate is preferes for next leader: Don't know 58%, None 22%
Caron 10%, Singh 4%, Angus 3%, Ashton 2%
(but Singh leads among non-franco with 8% before Caron and Ashton at 6%)

The impact of leader with turban: no effect 55%. discourage from voting 28%, encourage to vote for him 2%.

For voting intentions, Léger's question includes the name of the leader and the party.
The current situation using Mulcair's name for NDP leader is Lib 43%, NDP 19%, Bloc 19%, Conservative 15%.   
NDP gets 23% of the franco vote and 9% of the non franco and by region does best outside the Quebec City and Montreal metro areas with 22%.

Using the different candidates names as leader, The Liberals gain 4% with the two frontrunners and would be at 47% while NDP gets 13% with Angus and 11% with Singh. Caron performs better with 16% (and Lib at 46%). Ashton gets 11% (Lib 46%)

So the next leader will have to get known and develop a message to attract voters.

Interesting regional breakdowns.  No doubt good numbers for the Liberals although not quite as great at first blush since they are piling up the numbers in Montreal area and amongst non-Francos.  NDP and BQ are in fairly bad positions although to be fair the NDP is still polling above what they were at before the 2011 election, not that it means a lot.  Tory numbers pretty bad, but if you look at the regionals it seems they are getting slaughtered in the Montreal area still competitive in the Quebec City region, while well behind elsewhere in Quebec although not totally off the map.  I do though think at the moment (a lot can change between now and 2019, especially as Quebec is known to swing en masse on a moment's notice) that the Tories, NDP, and BQ would all lose seats and in the case of the NDP and BQ it would more be individual candidates as they don't really have any region of strength.  The Tories at least are somewhat more concentrated so would probably come in second, but in the single digits in seats.  Liberals despite being only 43% (note Pierre Trudeau usually got over 60% in Quebec) would probably dominate much the way Pierre Trudeau did due a divided opposition.

[RogueBeaver]

UFCW endorses Singh.

124k members eligible, up from 41k. Most in BC/ON.

[DL]

UFCW endorses Singh.

124k members eligible, up from 41k. Most in BC/ON.

I suspect Jagmeet Singh wins on the first ballot