NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Jeppe]

Important Singh announcement tomorrow. Horgan or Julian endorsement? Pretty sure Singh's not dropping out.

Machinists union endorses Singh.

I don't think Horgan would endorse, since he's the sitting premier, same with Notley. I'm leaning towards Peter Julian endorsing him, but I'm not too sure. Weren't there rumours about Julian was endorsing Singh when he dropped out? I certainly remember reading about that, although nothing came to fruition.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could also be Nathan Cullen.

[lilTommy]

Anyone remember Pat Stogran? who was in the NDP leadership race for about a hot minute then had a tantrum at the party?... He just endorsed Charlie Angus. Good?, bad?

[brucejoel99]

Julian endorses Singh.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone remember Pat Stogran? who was in the NDP leadership race for about a hot minute then had a tantrum at the party?... He just endorsed Charlie Angus. Good?, bad?

irrelevant

[MAINEiac4434]

Julian endorses Singh.

Huge for Singh.

[toaster]

Singh has been receiving international press for how he handled a racist disruption at a campaign even in Brampton. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y67DnNRPszA


I'm surprised Angus or Ashton didn't put out any kind of release.

[King of Kensington]

A dog whistle from Angus in the debate about Singh's fundraising, saying a lot of it came "from Brampton."

[Njall]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

Not that I'm aware of.

Eric Grenier's compilation of endorsements only showed one from Alberta, and that was former Alberta NDP Leader and MLA Ray Martin endorsing Charlie Angus.

[Jeppe]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

Not that I'm aware of.

Eric Grenier's compilation of endorsements only showed one from Alberta, and that was former Alberta NDP Leader and MLA Ray Martin endorsing Charlie Angus.

Probably Notley issuing a gag order on her caucus then. The pipeline issue could cause some image issues if a bunch of NDP MLA's were photographed together with a federal leader that's anti-pipeline.

[Jeppe]

Singh takes a slim lead in Mainstreet's newest poll. For reference, he was last place in a poll conducted by the same company last month.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/09/11/singh-takes-slim-lead-over-angus-mainstreet-ndp-leadership-poll/

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is the breakdown

Singh: 34.9%
Angus: 33.1%
Ashton: 18.5%
Caron: 13.5%

Singh isn't doing well on people's second preferences though, and would probably lose if these numbers are to be believed. But this is all good news for Singh, as I reckon his support is much lower in these polls than in reality.

[Jeppe]

Full breakdowns

Singh (27.3%), Angus (25%), Not Sure (25%), Ashton (13%), Caron (9.8%)

Decided & Leaning
Singh (34.9%), Angus (33.1%), Ashton (18.5%), Caron (13.5%)

Age
18-34: Singh (61.5%), Ashton (14.9%), Angus (13.60%), Caron (9.9%)
35-49: Singh (62.2%), Angus (14.9%), Ashton (14.3%), Caron (8.6%)
50-64: Singh (41.8%), Angus (25.6%), Ashton (19.8%), Caron (12.9%)
65+: Angus (41.9%), Singh (22.6%), Ashton (20%), Caron (15.4%)

Regional breakdowns
BC: Singh (43.7%), Angus (25.8%), Ashton (16.6%), Caron (13.9%)
AB: Singh (43.4%), Angus (33.8%), Ashton (13.1%), Caron (9.8%)
SK: Angus (45.6%), Ashton (28.6%), Singh (15.3%), Caron (10.6%)
MB: Ashton (29.6%), Singh (29.1%), Angus (24.5%), Caron (16.8%)
ON: Singh (45.1%), Angus (32.5%), Ashton (11.8%), Caron (10.6%)
QC: Caron (30.6%), Ashton (26.1%), Singh (23.5%), Angus (19.5%)
Atlantic: Singh (30.3%), Angus (29.3%), Caron (21.7%), Ashton (18.7%)


Gender preferences
Angus: Male (31%), Female (37%)
Caron: Male (15%), Female (13%)
Singh: Male (36%), Female (30%)
Ashton: Male (18%), Female (20%)


Second choice preferences
Angus (25.3%), Ashton (23.3%), Caron (20.3%), Singh (10.8%)

[mileslunn]

On the bigger note, should the NDP aim to win outright or should their goal just be to reduce the Liberals to a minority and then use their leverage to push them to adopt more progressive policies?  The former seems like a long shot although we live in unpredictable times whereas the latter seems far more realistic.

Also while unlikely, if in the event the Tories win the most seats but the Liberals + NDP got over 170 seats, do you think they should form a coalition or alliance like the NDP and Greens did in BC to keep out the Tories or would this just like 2008 create a strong backlash.

[Kingpoleon]

On the bigger note, should the NDP aim to win outright or should their goal just be to reduce the Liberals to a minority and then use their leverage to push them to adopt more progressive policies?  The former seems like a long shot although we live in unpredictable times whereas the latter seems far more realistic.

Also while unlikely, if in the event the Tories win the most seats but the Liberals + NDP got over 170 seats, do you think they should form a coalition or alliance like the NDP and Greens did in BC to keep out the Tories or would this just like 2008 create a strong backlash.

I think it's possible the NDP gives confidence to a minority Liberal government, depending on if the Liberals are just a few seats below the Conservatives or quite a few.

[mileslunn]

On the bigger note, should the NDP aim to win outright or should their goal just be to reduce the Liberals to a minority and then use their leverage to push them to adopt more progressive policies?  The former seems like a long shot although we live in unpredictable times whereas the latter seems far more realistic.

Also while unlikely, if in the event the Tories win the most seats but the Liberals + NDP got over 170 seats, do you think they should form a coalition or alliance like the NDP and Greens did in BC to keep out the Tories or would this just like 2008 create a strong backlash.

I think it's possible the NDP gives confidence to a minority Liberal government, depending on if the Liberals are just a few seats below the Conservatives or quite a few.

Agreed that closeness matters.  I also think if the Liberals win the popular vote but not seats there would be a good case for them to stay on, whereas if it is a repeat of 2008 (the odds of that happening are extremely slim as I believe there is an 80-90% chance the Liberals will win the most seats in 2019) then you could see a backlash due to the large gap.

[DL]

Here is the breakdown

Singh: 34.9%
Angus: 33.1%
Ashton: 18.5%
Caron: 13.5%

Singh isn't doing well on people's second preferences though, and would probably lose if these numbers are to be believed. But this is all good news for Singh, as I reckon his support is much lower in these polls than in reality.

Its actually a remarkably good showing for Singh considering that the sample polled was recent NDP donors...meaning its likely very very light on the 47,000 new members Singh's campaign signed up

[toaster]

Those numbers tell a lot, and frankly align with what I was sensing.  Angus is not the Bernie candidate.  He is the candidate of old (probably white) folks.  Jagmeet is the candidate of younger, millennial, voters.  Look at that 18-34 number for Singh, in the 60s.  That's approaching Bernie levels among young voters. 

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison compares the heckling to Justin's boxing match.

[136or142]

Those numbers tell a lot, and frankly align with what I was sensing.  Angus is not the Bernie candidate.  He is the candidate of old (probably white) folks.  Jagmeet is the candidate of younger, millennial, voters.  Look at that 18-34 number for Singh, in the 60s.  That's approaching Bernie levels among young voters.  

I'm not 100% sure that Charlie Angus' Brampton comment was 'dog whistle politics' but having seen the Vancouver debate I think he clearly lacks subtlety in his approach.  His comments about "my friend Guy has good ideas" were such an obvious attempt at second ballot support as to be laughable. Also, while his comment about 'the only time the NDP contacts you is when engaging in fundraising' is hard to dispute his 'we need to democratize the party' was so vague as to be meaningless.

I would have expected better from an artist and writer.

I also didn't hear from him much of his vaunted 'working person's economics' and politics.

I thought the only time he was really animated was when indigenous issues were brought up and I think he's done some excellent work on fighting for indigenous and other isolated northern communities.

To be totally honest, I'm not really sure why he's running.

These are his planks on party democratization:
http://www.charlieangusndp.ca/party_renewal

Not much there that isn't done already I don't think.

[136or142]

If/when Jagmeet Singh wins, does anybody think there will be pressure on him to run in Outremont if Thomas Mulcair steps down?

[DC Al Fine]

If/when Jagmeet Singh wins, does anybody think there will be pressure on him to run in Outremont if Thomas Mulcair steps down?

I'm sure some silly newspaper columnist who knows nothing about predicting elections will, but no one important.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, there will be a lot of so called "pundits" (read: morons) who will say that he has to run because OMG IT IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE LEADER TO HAVE A SEAT.

Of course, the impending Outremont by-election will be a huge test for him. A lot of the so-called pundits think it is a natural Liberal riding, and maybe it is, but if the NDP is to remain relevant in Quebec with a let's say... cosmopolitan... leader like Singh, it needs to do well in the Montreal area, which will be more tolerant to his shall we say... overt displays of his religion. I don't buy the hype that Singh will be toxic in Quebec, but I do think he will not be popular in rural Quebec, but that is not to say he would not be in Montreal.

[RogueBeaver]

Donnelly endorses Caron.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, there will be a lot of so called "pundits" (read: morons) who will say that he has to run because OMG IT IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE LEADER TO HAVE A SEAT.

Remember in the last federal election, when half the 'ridings to watch' were seats Harper barely won in 2011? Expect the same sort of nonsense with Outremont and Singh.