NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[RogueBeaver]

Garrison endorses Singh.

[Hatman 🍁]

And it's hardly just Conservatives who think so:

What % of Americans wouldn't vote for a Black person before 2008?

[Boston Bread]

In 1999, Gallup had 95 percent of Americans willing to vote for a Black president. Im surprised it was that high.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155285/Atheists-Muslims-Bias-Presidential-Candidates.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

[Hatman 🍁]

In 1999, Gallup had 95 percent of Americans willing to vote for a Black president. Im surprised it was that high.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155285/Atheists-Muslims-Bias-Presidential-Candidates.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

oh, wow. I'm sure if Jagmeet is elected leader, and people get to know him, the numbers will go up. I have trouble believing more than 1/3 of NDP voters wouldn't vote for a Sikh. Maybe most of them are in Quebec?

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm. If Julian dropped out, who would he endorse, if anyone?

[136or142]

Hmm. If Julian dropped out, who would he endorse, if anyone?

I hope he's not dropping out.  There was that journalist from the Toronto Star who was previously quoted in this thread as writing something like "the only two candidates of importance are Charlie Angus and Jagmeet Singh."  (Both of whom happen to be from Ontario.)  I'd hate for a damned Toronto-centric journalist to actually be proven correct.  (Just as I'd hate for a Vancouver-centric journalist to be proven correct.)

[RogueBeaver]

Julian is dropping out.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad to see him go, but makes sense. Case in point, I wasn't intending to support him, even though I used to work for him.  I know he's a great guy and a very qualified, but he isn't very exciting.

[RogueBeaver]

Le Devoir: Julian quit because of $, Singh leads in Q2 fundraising and is extremely popular in BC/ON.

[adma]

Mainstreet Research
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/07/07/charlie-angus-leads-ndp-leadership-field-mainstreet-research-poll/ (paywalled, unfortunately)

Decided respondents:

Angus 35.2%
Ashton 31.9%
Julian 11.8%
Singh 11.7%
Caron 9.5%

[Hatman 🍁]

junk poll!

[toaster]

Mainstreet Research
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/07/07/charlie-angus-leads-ndp-leadership-field-mainstreet-research-poll/ (paywalled, unfortunately)

Decided respondents:

Angus 35.2%
Ashton 31.9%
Julian 11.8%
Singh 11.7%
Caron 9.5%

This makes me a little nervous.
Ashton as leader would make me vote Green.  She's too reactionary, hyper-sensational for me.

[136or142]

junk poll!

How is this poll conducted?  Does Mainstreet have access to the membership lists?  Because otherwise, if you assume there are 100,000 members of the NDP with say 17.5 million Canadian households, they'd have to call 175 households (assuming a 100% response rate) to find a single NDP member.

[Poirot]

I don't have access to the full article but at the start they explain their method:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[136or142]

I don't have access to the full article but at the start they explain their method:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thanks!

[DC Al Fine]

oh, wow. I'm sure if Jagmeet is elected leader, and people get to know him, the numbers will go up. I have trouble believing more than 1/3 of NDP voters wouldn't vote for a Sikh. Maybe most of them are in Quebec?

It's too bad that poll didn't include results for the Bloc, or by province, that would have been useful to figure that out. That said, I think Quebec is the obviously a big part of that followed by ridings with a larger blue collar working class type vote.

As an aside, I wonder if Singh's election could create a "reverse Howarth" trend at the federal level. A lot of promiscuous progressives might be:

a) Think Justin Trudeau is insufficiently progressive, reformist etc.
b) Want to vote for a racial and religious minority Prime Minister

You could see the NDP underperform in Northern Ontario, Windsor and Hamilton, while overperforming in Vancouver and Toronto. Is that realistic or am I completely out to lunch?

[adma]

It depends on the kinds of coalitions set--for instance, an Angus/Singh deal could pin down both ends.

Also, remember that Singh's overperformance potential is not so much in Vancouver and Toronto, as it is in Surrey and Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

It depends on the kinds of coalitions set--for instance, an Angus/Singh deal could pin down both ends.

Also, remember that Singh's overperformance potential is not so much in Vancouver and Toronto, as it is in Surrey and Brampton.

Surrey and Brampton for the minority voters, but I think DC was thinking about the promiscuous progressives coming back home in the bobo ridings of downtown Toronto.

[adma]

Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

[Hatman 🍁]

Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

Potentially. His lack of ability in French will hurt him in Quebec though. Though Singh will not do that well in Quebec either (due to "secularism"), but could be strong in the more tolerant Montreal area.

[Jeppe]

I'd sorta like to see a "path to a majority" map for all 4 candidates. Like seeing which ridings Singh would likely win compared to Angus and etc if the NDP formed a majority government under them.

[Zioneer]

So why isn't Singh "catching fire", so to speak? He seems like an obvious front-runner for the NDP leadership, especially since he seems to have the charisma that the other candidates lack.

[MaxQue]

So why isn't Singh "catching fire", so to speak? He seems like an obvious front-runner for the NDP leadership, especially since he seems to have the charisma that the other candidates lack.

Well, if someone wants charisma over anything else, they'll vote Trudeau.

[Poirot]

Kennedy Stewart, MP from Burnaby South, has endorsed Singh. One of his reasons for support is the fact Singh is a visible minority.

http://www.burnabynow.com/news/mp-kennedy-stewart-endorses-jagmeet-singh-for-party-leader-1.21041704

[adma]

Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

Potentially. His lack of ability in French will hurt him in Quebec though. Though Singh will not do that well in Quebec either (due to "secularism"), but could be strong in the more tolerant Montreal area.

I'd be interested in seeing what effect Julian's withdrawal will have on Caron's bid--I always saw the potential for a "Kennedy-Dion" deal there...