NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[ProgressiveCanadian]

What a beautiful result! Finally a true leader of the NDP

[King of Kensington]

I think Singh might win on the first ballot.

You must be from the GTA.

I think I did alright in my prediction. 

[DC Al Fine]

Any riding by riding results?

[lilTommy]

Jagmeet Singh is the new Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, on the 1st round of voting, with 53.8% of the vote

Jagmeet Singh: 35,266 (53.8%)
Charlie Angus: 12,705 (19.4%)
Niki Ashton: 11,374 (17.4%)
Guy Caron: 6,164 (9.4%)

TOTAL # OF VOTES CAST: 65,782
REJECTED BALLOTS: 101
TOTAL # OF ABSTENTIONS: 172

Singh did better in the first round then most thought, solid first round win; Angus did worse then thought, less then 20% and Ashton did better almost tying Angus (19% and 17%) Caron did as expected, around 10%

I believe there were more first round voters then in 2012 as well, I believe the votes cast were 62K

Personally I had Ashton #1 Singh #2, purely for policy reasons (Her greater focus on government ownership, taxation, childcare plans) But I knew she would not win, she is not as likable to those outside of the left-left sphere. Singh brings left policy cred and the much needed charisma and social media presence... the NDP needs a leader who can such the wind out of Trudeau personalist government.
Singh needs Ashton,Angus and Caron to now step up in the house, along with others in the House. Singh will have to spend the next two years working grassroots rebuilding the party, expanding it in particular Quebec and Rural/Regional areas.   

[Hatman 🍁]

What a beautiful result! Finally a true leader of the NDP

Still gonna vote Green though, right?

Any riding by riding results?

No, the NDP does not care about data nerds unfortunately

[lilTommy]

The only breakdown I see is the % of members who voted by province:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/by-the-numbers-a-look-at-a-breakdown-of-the-ndp-leadership-vote-1.3615945#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=eJFK4NP

Alberta -- 43 per cent of 10,188 members
B.C. -- 51 per cent of 31,974 members
Manitoba -- 39 per cent of 10,134 members
New Brunswick -- 49 per cent of 737 members
Newfoundland and Labrador -- 36 per cent of 1,260 members
Nova Scotia -- 45 per cent of 3,595 members
Northwest Territories -- 82 per cent of 56 members
Nunavut -- 81 per cent of 21 members
Ontario -- 59 per cent of 52,200 members
Prince Edward Island -- 74 per cent of 140 members
Quebec -- 66 per cent of 4,907 members
Saskatchewan -- 49 per cent of 8,083 members
Yukon -- 38 per cent of 503 member

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba being low makes sense, as they just had a leadership election as well, so a good chance many people there didn't care about the federal leadership, and might even be federal Liberals.

[toaster]

Jagmeet Singh is the new Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, on the 1st round of voting, with 53.8% of the vote

Jagmeet Singh: 35,266 (53.8%)
Charlie Angus: 12,705 (19.4%)
Niki Ashton: 11,374 (17.4%)
Guy Caron: 6,164 (9.4%)

TOTAL # OF VOTES CAST: 65,782
REJECTED BALLOTS: 101
TOTAL # OF ABSTENTIONS: 172

Singh did better in the first round then most thought, solid first round win; Angus did worse then thought, less then 20% and Ashton did better almost tying Angus (19% and 17%) Caron did as expected, around 10%

I believe there were more first round voters then in 2012 as well, I believe the votes cast were 62K

Personally I had Ashton #1 Singh #2, purely for policy reasons (Her greater focus on government ownership, taxation, childcare plans) But I knew she would not win, she is not as likable to those outside of the left-left sphere. Singh brings left policy cred and the much needed charisma and social media presence... the NDP needs a leader who can such the wind out of Trudeau personalist government.
Singh needs Ashton,Angus and Caron to now step up in the house, along with others in the House. Singh will have to spend the next two years working grassroots rebuilding the party, expanding it in particular Quebec and Rural/Regional areas.   

Even within the left-left sphere, there are many who feel she de-legitimizes that perspective, and is hyper-reactionary and sensationalist.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

[mileslunn]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Wouldn't that benefit the Conservatives as I doubt many Conservatives will go over to the NDP, it will probably be mostly Liberals, although perhaps Conservatives will fall due to NDP picking up some undecided voters.  Should be interesting to see what happens.  That being said it is tough for opposition leaders to get much attention so I think the next election is when people will really get to know Singh.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of my NDP friends are hopping mad about Terry Milewski's interview of Singh.  Milewski says Singh  initially demanded to see the questions in advanced to which Milewski refused and Singh decided to go ahead anyway.  Milewski is tough and arrogant and for not being afraid to confront the people in power, but many felt his interview was race-baiting.  I haven't yet watched the interview.

[Holmes]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Well it's the NDP so prepare for disappointment.

[lilTommy]

A lot of my NDP friends are hopping mad about Terry Milewski's interview of Singh.  Milewski says Singh  initially demanded to see the questions in advanced to which Milewski refused and Singh decided to go ahead anyway.  Milewski is tough and arrogant and for not being afraid to confront the people in power, but many felt his interview was race-baiting.  I haven't yet watched the interview.

I have, Singh did pretty well i thought... what I think most people had issue with was Milewski was basically asking Singh to apologize for the Air India bombing, since the suspected bomber was Sikh... for context Singh was 6 years old in 1985. He pressed Singh about, paraphrasing, "is it right to have this bomber held up as a hero, etc" Singh at one point told him to basically "shut up and let me finish my sentence" obviously with more tact then that, but Milewski wanted a Yes or No and Singh, rightly, was giving context to his answer, which was any terrorism is wrong but trying to give a more robust answer about false religious hatred. Try and find it.
Giving more context Milewski was all over this story back in the day when he was in BC with the CBC there.
 

[Hatman 🍁]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Wouldn't that benefit the Conservatives as I doubt many Conservatives will go over to the NDP, it will probably be mostly Liberals, although perhaps Conservatives will fall due to NDP picking up some undecided voters.  Should be interesting to see what happens.  That being said it is tough for opposition leaders to get much attention so I think the next election is when people will really get to know Singh.

If it is 5, my guess is it will be 3 points from the Liberals, 2 points from the Greens or something like that. Maybe more, to compensate for a point or two loss to the BQ? Anyways, this is just speculation of course; but the NDP hasn't been this relevant (as in having a lot of good news that has reached a lot of households) since the Alberta election, which saw quite a bounce for the NDP in the polls. But as Holmes said, I will "prepare for disappointment".

[DL]

Guy Caron has been chosen by Jagmeet Singh to lead the NDP in the House of Commons for the next two years. Great choice!

[MAINEiac4434]

Guy Caron has been chosen by Jagmeet Singh to lead the NDP in the House of Commons for the next two years. Great choice!

I like that Guy!

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

[Vega]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

Not sure how good of a sign it is that 22% of his own party seems to rule out voting for him at this point.

[MaxQue]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

I would say 53% is higher than the NDP ever got and it can only go up, given how sikhs are unknown in Quebec.

[mileslunn]

I think the NDP was going to be in a tough bind to hold the 16 seats they won in Quebec no matter what.  It is more can they make gains in BC and Ontario and perhaps pick up a few in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (note at the last federal election, provincial NDP was doing really badly in both provinces but has somewhat rebounded since).  Also any seats they do win in Quebec will probably in Montreal rather than the regions of Quebec and in Montreal people are a lot more open to diverse candidates than in the regions of Quebec.  Also much like Quebec Solidaire, their support in Quebec will likely be strongest amongst millennials who are far more open and tolerant as opposed to the older pure laine who after Jack Layton died probably weren't going to go NDP again anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Of the 16, I'd only bet on Boulerice/Brosseau/Caron/Laverdiere's reelections. Would've said same with Angus.

[MaxQue]

I think the NDP was going to be in a tough bind to hold the 16 seats they won in Quebec no matter what.  It is more can they make gains in BC and Ontario and perhaps pick up a few in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (note at the last federal election, provincial NDP was doing really badly in both provinces but has somewhat rebounded since).  Also any seats they do win in Quebec will probably in Montreal rather than the regions of Quebec and in Montreal people are a lot more open to diverse candidates than in the regions of Quebec.  Also much like Quebec Solidaire, their support in Quebec will likely be strongest amongst millennials who are far more open and tolerant as opposed to the older pure laine who after Jack Layton died probably weren't going to go NDP again anyways.

I don't feel much bigotry in my remote region of Quebec. It's more in rural area near to Quebec City.

[Hatman 🍁]

I figure the NDP can make some inroads in Montreal. We saw a big uptick in turnout to kick the PQ out in Montreal in 2014 because of the charter. This is why the coming Outremont by-election will be a big deal for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Of the 16, I'd only bet on Boulerice/Brosseau/Caron/Laverdiere's reelections. Would've said same with Angus.

Who'd have thought that Brosseau would be one of the safest Quebec NDP MPs back in 2011. Truth is stranger than fiction.

[adma]

I'm less bullish on Brosseau--I can see the novelty of electing and then reelecting her wearing off.  But I'd count Christine Moore as a sleeper "hold", even if her man Charlie lost the leader's race...