NDP Leadership Convention 2017

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If the party members are determined to move to the left, the most obvious choices would be her, Niki Ashton or Avi Lewis/Naomi Klein.  Unless people here can suggest somebody else.

Though even if he himself doesn't have elected experience, Avi Lewis is of a family that does, so that ought to count for something.  (Even if the last time was nearly four decades ago--but a strangely "short" four decades, all things considered.)

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Who in the NDP is as left as Corbyn and actually has a legitimate chance of winning?

Peter Kormos would have been.

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Because John Diefenbaker tried that 50 years ago, and you had the pathetic spectacle of an incumbent leader and former PM being in 5th on the first ballot. More recently, Preston Manning and Stockwell Day got crushed when they ran to succeed themselves.

And don't forget Joe Clark in 1983.

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One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

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At this point, for Olivia Chow to still be in the lead is just plain inertia gone berzerk.

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Yes but will quebecers warm to Charlie Angus if his French is not good at all? I hear very mixed accounts of his French but what little I've heard is on a par with Lisa Raitt which is awful

A lot depends on whether he has the tacit support of current Quebec-caucussers like Boulerice, Caron, or his immediate neighbours Saganash and Moore--they can carry a lot of the linguistic weight on Charlie's behalf.  But let us also consider that the fluke laughing-gas circumstances of 2011 might have *over*-elevated NDP expectations of Quebec.  That is, maybe it's better to henceforth consider a 50-member Quebec contingent as more of a "nice-to-have" than a "must-have", and make up for that in the ROC--but at the same time not to blithely throw away whatever caucus the NDP has remaining in Quebec (half of which won by less than a third of the vote, anyway; so they're like twice-in-a-row "accidents", first through the Orange Crush, and then through FPTP favourable vote splits).  Which is why, at the very least, keeping the Carons and Boulerices on-side is critical...

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I agree that we should nt expect the next leader to take the NDP back to 50 seats in Quebec. BUT, right now the NDP has 16 seats in Quebec. That is more than in any other province and is 1/3 of the whole federal caucus. A new leader who is fluent in French and who has a personal story that connects to Quebec could have a good chance of holding those 16 seats. A new leader who is a unilingual anglophone would be viewed as an insult to Quebec and the NDP would almost certainly lose all 16 seats. Period.

But you also have to remember that the remaining caucus 16 is, as I indicated, a bit of an "accident two-times running".  Electorally speaking, at least half of that 16 are de facto walking-wounded flukes.  I mean: really, realistically speaking, must the NDP be so tethered to the ghost-of-2011 "Quebec idea"?  I'd almost rather argue that a bit of Moynihan-esque "benign neglect" might be necessary re said "Quebec idea", i.e. don't coddle, let things settle and progress at their own speed, too much growth too fast might lead to a root system undermining the foundation, etc.  And it needn't even mean that the caucus be wiped out, if there's a Boulerician core that lends a touch of "Quebec Solitaire" gravitas.  (Though yeah, I know it didn't prevent the wipeout of the Maritime and Toronto caucuses last election)

I mean: sometimes, DL, it seems like you're overplaying the "unilingual handicap" gambit as a front for deeper personal issues with Charlie Angus (which I can understand, given reports of his snippiness t/w some of the more "no compromise" left-supporters).  But the thing is, he probably has more of that Laytonesque nation-conscious galvanizing "charisma thing" than any other of the present leadership contenders, Franco- or bilingual or no--and besides, being so squarely a Quebec politician didn't help Mulcair except vestigially through caucus survivors.  And I doubt that simple bi/multilingualism is enough for Peter Julian or Niki Ashton to replenish the Quebec stock; even Guy Caron might work out little better than Jean Charest as PC leader in 1997 (esp. if he's facing Trudeau *and* Maxime Bernier as leaders of their respective parties).  So, if we're still looking at single-digit Quebec NDP caucus numbers: symbolism aside, what's the difference btw/ 6-10 seats and 0-4 seats?  Angus might be faulty in his spoken French; but he hardly fits the toxically Franco-phobic stereotype--and regardless of Quebec, he's probably the primary leadership hopeful when it comes to visions of *growing* the caucus *across Canada*...

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I actually think Jagmeet Singh is the man of the future for the NDP and his French is better than Angus 's

Okay, forgot about him.  (Though he's more of a growing-the-caucus "wild card".)

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Mulcair spoke French like Parizeau spoke English? ;-)

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Why are so few NDP politicians (and would be politicians bilingual) in the first place? Some people speculated about Avi Lewis - but again he speaks ZERO French. What's his excuse? He grew up in the 70s when French immersion was very much "in vogue" among the English Canadian intelligentsia and he was sent to private schools in Toronto.

It could be that until the Orange Crush, Quebec was viewed as terminally marginal NDP turf that was best targeted in spot increments or unique circumstances (like Phil Edmonston in 1990 as an "anti-establishment-party" pre-Bloc proxy option).  In fact, the first general-election Dipper who banked his bombproof success on "Franco-appeal" was probably Acadie-Bathurst's Yvon Godin in 1997--and he was more a force unto himself than anything...

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Even in loss, Philip Toone had a 4% larger notional vote total in Gaspe-LIdlM, and his personal share was only down 1.24% from what he got in 2011 under former boundaries.

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There's another exceptional case in Quebec where the NDP "held their share" from 2011: BQ defector Marie Mourani in Ahuntsic-Cartierville.

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Angus wins Gilles Bisson (Timmins-James Bay) (big surprise there! lol) and John Vanthof (Timiskaming-Cochrane) support, both Northern ON MPPs

Keep in mind that because Northern Ontario provincial riding boundaries do not match federal (unlike Southern Ontario), *both* Bisson *and* Vanthof represent Charlie Angus territory.

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I find it interesting that the NDP might be optimistic enough to think Canadians will elect a brown guy Prime Minister.

Are we not supposed to say that? I have no faith in our people whatsoever.

The locals from my native Timmins-James Bay wouldn't be so hot on him, and it's an NDP stronghold.

Then again, your representative is the chief competition.

(And come to think of it, re Hatman's comment:  wouldn't Charlie Angus represent an earthier kind of "cool progressivism"?)

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I like everything about Charlie Angus...except his French is no where near good enough

He represents one of the most Francophone ridings in Ontario. I think he's good in that regard. Love him!

Mm. He's ok. Which I think is the general consensus on him in the riding. He's probably least popular in Timmins itself considering it's the most right-leaning part of the riding.

Not so much "most right-leaning" as "least populist"--sort of an "urban thing" (think of Sudbury vs Nickel Belt)

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I do think Singh's politics align much more with the North than Angus' do.  It is not uncommon to hear people in Timmins say they feel like they don't get much representation because Angus is always worrying about the "natives" (a word still used by Indigenous and white/non indigenous in the north).  On the surface is sounds racist, but it is much more a reflection of the problem with creating these huge ridings, and grouping urban cities with Aboriginal communities.

OTOH Angus has always tended to overachieve in Timiskaming (Kirkland Lake, Englehart et al)--territory that's historically been more populist-Conservative (and a relative strong spot for Confederation of Regions in the 90s) and where First Nations isn't really a factor.

As I've suggested before, the real weakness may owe something to Timmins being too "city slicker"--a pattern duplicated in other Northern Ontario urban centres such as Sudbury, the Soo, Thunder Bay; it's where those with bourgeois middle-class aspirations settle.  (And who knows whether the Franco-Ontarian demo in Timmins has a problem with Angus' weak grasp of French.)

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That comment on Charlie Angus' page makes me think back to David Ahenakew--the whole loaded "aboriginal racism" thing...

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Mainstreet Research
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/07/07/charlie-angus-leads-ndp-leadership-field-mainstreet-research-poll/ (paywalled, unfortunately)

Decided respondents:

Angus 35.2%
Ashton 31.9%
Julian 11.8%
Singh 11.7%
Caron 9.5%

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It depends on the kinds of coalitions set--for instance, an Angus/Singh deal could pin down both ends.

Also, remember that Singh's overperformance potential is not so much in Vancouver and Toronto, as it is in Surrey and Brampton.

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Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

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Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

Potentially. His lack of ability in French will hurt him in Quebec though. Though Singh will not do that well in Quebec either (due to "secularism"), but could be strong in the more tolerant Montreal area.

I'd be interested in seeing what effect Julian's withdrawal will have on Caron's bid--I always saw the potential for a "Kennedy-Dion" deal there...

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Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

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Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

That's interesting, and maybe true on paper, but are there any ridings in particular you can think of? I'm thinking he could have appeal in Tory ridings in Northern Ontario and SW Ontario, and maybe urban Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Maybe some parts in BC.

In general, I think of Angus as having the most "Sanders Republican" reach, i.e. the likeliest to channel a "Tommy Douglas traditionalist" dynamic, or to crack the rural-west firewall even Layton couldn't breach.  That is, unless CPC ridings in the West are simply too far gone at this point.

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

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Timmins has always been a weak spot within the Timmins-James Bay riding for the NDP.  I believe the Liberals actually won in the city limits of Timmins in 20165.  It is similar to Sudbury, the reason it appears to be a stronghold for the NDP is because of the Northern Part of the riding.

But there's also an element of "more of a Charlie Angus riding than an NDP riding" within Timiskaming--pre-Angus, there was a pattern there of strong Conservative support with a Confederation of Regions undercurrent for good measure...

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And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

Or more like: non-reserve rural/small-town "populist", cities "establishment".  A bit like how areas which favoured Reform over PC in the 90s morphed into having outsize Layton-era NDP (and/or undersize Liberal) shares.

What's interesting about Angus's Timiskaming clout is that it'd be like the NDP outperforming *today* in rural Saskatchewan.