NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

Holding out for Jagmeet.

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I honestly have more faith in Canada than us.

[MAINEiac4434]

Looks like there is another Candidate that has stepped in; Ibrahim Bruno El-Khoury

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/06/fifth-candidate-registers-to-enter-ndp-leadership-race-to-replace-mulcair/ - paywall article.

Found a blog as well - http://ibelkhoury.blogspot.com/2015/08/publications.html

Considering I can find literally nothing on this guy, I doubt he even makes the ballot.

[MAINEiac4434]

Finally. My god I feel like it's been rumored for a year.

[MAINEiac4434]

How does he get into Parliament?

Safe seat MP resigns, he runs in the by-election.

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Agreed it will be between Singh and Angus, with Ashton in third.

Has as improved at all after her disastrous 2012 performance, or is it just a desire to have a left-wing leader following someone closer to the center?

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If I was Singh I'd be livid. And if Angus does win the leadership, this could be used against him by the Liberals.

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[You must be from the GTA.

Very funny.  But it looks like the Layton coalition is very much behind Singh.

I'm not thrilled about Jagmeet, but that's how I see it.

Be still my heart...

[MAINEiac4434]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

[MAINEiac4434]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

This is why I support him too. Though I acknowledge his candidacy could be a risky proposition, but the NDP needs to throw a hail Mary right about now.

Agreed. Even if Singh leads to a drop in support in rural areas and Quebec, I can see him more than making up for it in Ivan and suburban areas.

[MAINEiac4434]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

I'd be more worried about the Liberals if I were an NDP supporter. Trudeau is really popular among promiscuous progressives. That's annoying for a Tory, but horrifying for a Dipper.

This. The NDP needs to cut into the Liberals' numbers to keep them honest.

[MAINEiac4434]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.

It's not 2003 anymore. If Singh is elected, he needs to get into parliament as soon as possible. The NDP has countless safe seats.

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he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

[MAINEiac4434]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

Could this have been an effect of the Liberal wave? Could traditional NDP voters have wanted so desperately to get the Tories out that they voted Liberal just to make sure?

[MAINEiac4434]

Huge get for Angus. Wow.

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Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

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Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

This post is gonna look crazy when Niki Ashton randomly wins the leadership race and - even more oddly - the next general election and henceforth places a ban on white people wearing dreadlocks.

This is the greatest post I've ever seen.

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

Banning using a government job to prozelytisation ends isn't discrimination. I support grandfathering current employees, through.

It's not banning "prozelytisation" (which isn't a word), but rather banning Muslims and Sikhs from observing their religion. It's bigotry, plain and simple.

[MAINEiac4434]

Julian endorses Singh.

Huge for Singh.

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Cullen endorsing Singh.

Another huge get for Singh. The ball is in his court.

[MAINEiac4434]

Guy Caron has been chosen by Jagmeet Singh to lead the NDP in the House of Commons for the next two years. Great choice!

I like that Guy!

[MAINEiac4434]

An end note here, the NDP just gained two new supporters, well Niki has... Niki Ashton just posted to facebook that she has gave birth to twins.

Names? (I really hope she named one Bernie).