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  NY-Monmouth Uni: Hillary+12
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Author Topic: NY-Monmouth Uni: Hillary+12  (Read 2180 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: April 11, 2016, 01:03:27 pm »

51-39 Hillary/Bernie

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/f0b0dbc3-0429-48fe-9e98-567137ad786d.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2016, 01:12:43 pm »

A new Marist/NBC poll will also be out later today (for both races).
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2016, 01:14:54 pm »

BERNIE WITHIN 15 POINTS, HE HAS A CHANCE TO CRUSH SHILLARY HARPY LADY
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2016, 01:15:59 pm »

A new Marist/NBC poll will also be out later today (for both races).

Awesome!
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Castro
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2016, 01:20:33 pm »

A new Marist/NBC poll will also be out later today (for both races).

They've been pretty good so far I think.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2016, 01:22:01 pm »

Whites: Sanders +2 (48-46)
Non-whites: Clinton +40 (62-22)

Outside of the south, Clinton has generally held a +40 lead (70-30) with African Americans.  This result suggest that either Clinton is outperforming this number with New York blacks, or her performance with Hispanics matches her Florida and Texas performance rather than Nevada and Illinois.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2016, 01:25:59 pm »

A new Marist/NBC poll will also be out later today (for both races).

PPP was also doing a New York poll this weekend, but I'm not sure when they're releasing it.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2016, 01:31:49 pm »

Very small sample size.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2016, 01:34:34 pm »

Yep, this is going to be a single digit race folks, though Clinton should win.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2016, 01:51:25 pm »

I hope this at least puts to bed the idea that this is going to look anything like Cuomo-Teachout in terms of the margin.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2016, 02:42:04 pm »

New Poll: New York President by Monmouth University on 2016-04-10

Summary:
Clinton:
51%
Sanders:
39%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2016, 02:42:59 pm »

The issue is he is only at 35% in Manhattan/Bronx - and I bet the percentage in the Bronx alone is much lower. This is going to be a huge delegate haul for Hillary in those CD's.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2016, 02:48:05 pm »

The issue is he is only at 35% in Manhattan/Bronx - and I bet the percentage in the Bronx alone is much lower. This is going to be a huge delegate haul for Hillary in those CD's.

I imagine that the Bronx is what is bringing that number down to 35%. Sanders is going to get destroyed there, while I wouldn't be shocked if Manhattan is his closest borough.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2016, 02:55:58 pm »

Sanders may be able to keep Clinton to a 10-point win, at this rate, but he's not going to win.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2016, 03:11:31 pm »

Interestingly, Bernie's support is more solid in this poll (65%-56%).
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2016, 03:14:13 pm »

The issue is he is only at 35% in Manhattan/Bronx - and I bet the percentage in the Bronx alone is much lower. This is going to be a huge delegate haul for Hillary in those CD's.

I imagine that the Bronx is what is bringing that number down to 35%. Sanders is going to get destroyed there, while I wouldn't be shocked if Manhattan is his closest borough.

Nah, I think the boroughs break as follows:

Staten Island: 54-45 Sanders
Brooklyn: 52-47 Clinton
Manhattan: 55-44 Clinton
Queens: 60-39 Clinton
Bronx: 65-34 Clinton

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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2016, 05:52:22 pm »

Brooklyn is going to go massively for Clinton.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2016, 06:05:33 pm »

Interestingly, Bernie's support is more solid in this poll (65%-56%).

So this is another way in which this poll is different to the others, along with Sanders winning the white vote?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2016, 05:52:59 pm »

I hope this at least puts to bed the idea that this is going to look anything like Cuomo-Teachout in terms of the margin.

I've always thought it would be more like the 08 primary overall, but with massive regional swings. I have a strong feeling that the pollsters aren't screening well enough for this ultra restrictive closed primary, and that Hillary is going to outperform by at least a few points as a result. One of them even included independents!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2016, 10:30:45 pm »

I hope this at least puts to bed the idea that this is going to look anything like Cuomo-Teachout in terms of the margin.

I've always thought it would be more like the 08 primary overall, but with massive regional swings. I have a strong feeling that the pollsters aren't screening well enough for this ultra restrictive closed primary, and that Hillary is going to outperform by at least a few points as a result. One of them even included independents!

I will now accept my accolades. Smiley
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