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Author Topic: CT - Emerson: Trump +24, Clinton +6  (Read 2403 times)
Holmes
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« on: April 12, 2016, 11:14:29 am »



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PeteB
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2016, 11:20:29 am »

Very strong numbers from both Clinton and Trump!
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Volrath50
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2016, 11:24:01 am »

As much as Emerson usually sort of sucks, this seems about right. Looks like Trump will most likely sweep all delegates in CT. (AFAIK, it's WTA by CD.) I wonder how fast the media will switch from "TRUMP IS DOOMED" to "TRUMP IS INVINCIBLE, CRUZ IS DOOMED" after Trump wins in a blowout on both 19 April and 26 April.
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2016, 11:30:40 am »

Emerson has does a lot of landline & older voter sampling which is why Clinton does awesome in these polls.

If she is +6 in Emerson, I think in truth Sanders may well be tied or ahead. With so much time left, I think Sanders has a big BIG chance of winning CT (& this means probably CT as well).

Great results for Sanders!
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2016, 11:34:09 am »

If that helps you sleep at night.
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Shadows
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2016, 11:36:22 am »

If that helps you sleep at night.

It is the truth which most literate people would accept. I am yet to see crosstabs or breakups but Emerson giving +6 to Clinton 14 days before a poll is usually very strong news for Sanders
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2016, 11:37:21 am »

Clinton will win CT easily. Strong demographics for her, closed primary.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2016, 11:40:37 am »

I mean, for all the sh**t it gets, wasn't Emerson the most accurate in Wisconsin? And Lief is right, it's closed, going to be 20%+ non-white, and 65%+ over the age of 45. And Sanders is sh**tting the bed with the gun issue right now. But because it's in New England, it all leads to a comfortable single digit win for Clinton.
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2016, 11:44:24 am »

I mean, for all the sh**t it gets, wasn't Emerson the most accurate in Wisconsin? And Lief is right, it's closed, going to be 20%+ non-white, and 65%+ over the age of 45. And Sanders is sh**tting the bed with the gun issue right now. But because it's in New England, it all leads to a comfortable single digit win for Clinton.

It's amazing how, aside from Michigan, the polling and the demographics almost always predict the right winner, and the margin, within a few points. Bernie fans expecting a double digit win in CT are deluded.
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2016, 11:48:26 am »

I mean, for all the sh**t it gets, wasn't Emerson the most accurate in Wisconsin? And Lief is right, it's closed, going to be 20%+ non-white, and 65%+ over the age of 45. And Sanders is sh**tting the bed with the gun issue right now. But because it's in New England, it all leads to a comfortable single digit win for Clinton.

It's amazing how, aside from Michigan, the polling and the demographics almost always predict the right winner, and the margin, within a few points. Bernie fans expecting a double digit win in CT are deluded.

Demographics have been even more accurate than polling. Even in Michigan most demographic models were predicting a modest Sanders lead.
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Holmes
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2016, 11:49:36 am »

I mean, for all the sh**t it gets, wasn't Emerson the most accurate in Wisconsin? And Lief is right, it's closed, going to be 20%+ non-white, and 65%+ over the age of 45. And Sanders is sh**tting the bed with the gun issue right now. But because it's in New England, it all leads to a comfortable single digit win for Clinton.

It's amazing how, aside from Michigan, the polling and the demographics almost always predict the right winner, and the margin, within a few points. Bernie fans expecting a double digit win in CT are deluded.

Demographics have been even more accurate than polling. Even in Michigan most demographic models were predicting a modest Sanders lead.

Do you have any links to these models? I'd like to see what they were based on because Michigan hadn't had a competitive Democratic primary in a long time.
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« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2016, 11:55:25 am »

I think that Benchmark Politics blog had MI at basically a tie, despite the polls showing Clinton +20.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2016, 12:02:34 pm »

I think that Benchmark Politics blog had MI at basically a tie, despite the polls showing Clinton +20.

And Nate Silver's model was Sanders +4, IIRC.
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2016, 01:02:03 pm »

Pretty good for Sanders from an Emerson poll. Ads are just starting to run for him in the state.
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« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2016, 01:51:51 pm »

Wow, Cruz just continues to be stunningly weak.
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« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2016, 02:03:04 pm »

Wow, Cruz just continues to be stunningly weak.

For the rest of April, Kasich is Ted Cruz's best friend.  But when IN primary comes, it will be back to "a vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump, Hillary, Putin, and Hitler"
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« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2016, 02:06:43 pm »

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.
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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2016, 02:11:36 pm »

I think this poll has some major issues. The easiest one I can see is that Sanders leads Clinton 58-39 among voters age 18-24. I can't think of any state that has had that small of a divide (correct me if I'm wrong. Also, while CT is a closed primary, it does have same-day registration. Also this:

Quote
When Independents and Republican voters in the polling sample who expressed support for Sanders were added to the Democratic primary numbers, Sanders closed the current 6-point gap with Clinton to 1 point (47% to 46%). This suggests that if Sanders can persuade his non-Democratic supporters in Connecticut to reregister as Democrats, he could pull off a win without relying on a last-minute swing by younger registered Democrats.

Edit: also, this finds a Kasich win in the general of the state, and it has the largest favorabilities for Sanders (+60 to +32 for Clinton).
« Last Edit: April 12, 2016, 02:13:11 pm by Sorenroy »Logged

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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2016, 02:13:09 pm »

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.

This happened?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2016, 02:14:52 pm »

I think this poll has some major issues. The easiest one I can see is that Sanders leads Clinton 58-39 among voters age 18-24. I can't think of any state that has had that small of a divide (correct me if I'm wrong. Also, while CT is a closed primary, it does have same-day registration.
Here's the under 30 vote for states with exit polls (WI was >80% Sanders)
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2016, 02:27:32 pm »

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.

This happened?

Closed primary = always bad for Sanders, exaggerating demographic advantage for Clinton, etc.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2016, 02:36:04 pm »

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.

This happened?

Closed primary = always bad for Sanders, exaggerating demographic advantage for Clinton, etc.

Well, that's a fact. Except when the primary is full of conservative Dixiecrats who vote Sanders only because they want to stick it to Obama.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2016, 02:51:09 pm by Landslide Lyndon »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2016, 02:50:07 pm »

Does CT have a winner take all threshold for the at large delegates on the GOP side?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2016, 02:56:55 pm »

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.

This happened?

Closed primary = always bad for Sanders, exaggerating demographic advantage for Clinton, etc.

Well, that's a fact. Except when the primary is full of conservative Dixiecrats who vote Sanders only because they want to stick it to Obama.

So the evidence is the Southern primaries, and Oklahoma doesn't count? That doesn't really give us much basis to predict the NE contests, and it certainly isn't what I would consider solid evidence for predicting that Clinton will significantly beat her poll numbers.
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2016, 02:58:37 pm »

50% WTA trigger for the At-Large delegates, proportional with 20% threshold otherwise.  CD delegates are WTA (no trigger).

If Trump were to sweep the state, that's a 10-delegate haul over my projections for Trump; that's nothing to sneeze at.

Even if he doesn't, winning all 5 CDs and shutting Cruz out of delegates would still be a good night for him.

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