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  Russ Potts in Virginia
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Author Topic: Russ Potts in Virginia  (Read 3300 times)
afcassidy
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« on: June 07, 2005, 12:05:17 am »


I've written a little about him in my own blog...

http://thirdpartywatch.com/?p=5

But I'd be curious to hear what everyone thinks about maverick GOP State Senator Russ Potts and his (slightly weird) bid to become Virginia's next governor by running as an Independent.
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Ben Meyers
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2005, 12:23:39 am »

He'll take more votes away from Kaine - think Anderson in 80.
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afcassidy
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2005, 12:58:51 am »

How well do you think he'll do in the end?
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Alcon
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2005, 02:26:00 am »

Do you think he might pull some votes from the libertarian wing of the GOP, especially in the northlands?
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2005, 04:41:24 am »

I doubt Mr. Potts will do all that well, though I suppose taking even 2% from Kilgore would make a difference if its that close.  By running outside the Party, this guy embarrasses those who are working for real change within the Party.
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2005, 08:03:14 am »

What area is Potts from?
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Ben Meyers
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2005, 08:14:03 am »

I think he'll get 7%-14%.
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Jake
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2005, 11:08:04 am »

Potts is Kaine's only chance to win this thing. I see the race as being around 55-45 Kilgore with no third party candidates. If Potts can pull 7%, Kaine can win this, if Potts fails to pull that much, Kilgore will surely win.
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2005, 03:02:55 pm »


If I recall correctly, he is from Winchester, Virginia, a rural-ish city that voted Bush with about 57%.
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nick
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2005, 03:05:30 pm »

I can't believe Kilgore is actually ahead in the polls and on track to win this thing.  From what I have seen he is a horrible candidate.  He won't even debate.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2005, 04:15:35 pm »

Don't get me started on Russ Potts, my state Senator.

He is from Winchester (Frederick Co). I'll go further in detail later on tonight.
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MHS2002
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2005, 08:11:46 pm »

OK, as promised, my Russ Potts rant. This has probably been posted in other places before, but here it is, once again.

Russ Potts is my state Senator, elected from one of the most conservative districts in Virginia (basically the Northwest corner of the state). Potts himself is more liberal (especially socially) than the district that he represents: he could be described as a RINO/liberal Republican/maverick (whatever term you prefer) As the Republican primary rolled around in the summer of 2003, Potts faced a strong primary challenge from the right from a local businessman: think Pat Toomey/Arlen Specter in a sense, except in these neck of the woods the Republican primary essentially doubles as the general election. Potts won by small margin, mainly on the basis of incumbency. He went on to win the general election easily.

In the spring of 2004 (at least that's when I think it was), Gov. Warner was pushing hard for a tax increase that he said the state needed to balance its budget. Virginia's House and Senate are controlled by Republicans; however, Warner was able to pick off enough Republicans (Potts being one of them) to support the increase. Anyway, long story short, Potts didn't exactly endear himself to many Republicans with this move.

Summer of 2004, Potts first made a mention of running for governor. The establishment essentially gave Potts the cold shoulder, and instead threw its weight behind Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. I thought this was going to be the end of Potts running for governor, but in the Fall of 2004 he decided to run as what he calls an "Independent Republican." The Republican organizations in his district essentially booted him from the party and the other Republicans in the Virginia Senate tried to strip him of his committee positions (they failed).

So...how do I think Potts will do in the general election? No more than 5%, I would think. He isn't very well known outside this area and he doesn't have a lot of cash. Essentially, his campaign just doesn't have the resources to make a dent in either Kaine or Kilgore. I would guess he'll get about 3%, enough to make somewhat of a statement but not really enough to sway the election, I think. Also, someone else is already running for Potts' Senate seat, and Potts' career as a politician has got to be dead after the gubernatorial election.

Also, as a whole, Virginia hasn't really tuned into the gubernatorial race. The main topics so far have been transportation issues (especially in the ever-expanding Northern, and now Northwestern, Virginia area), property taxes, and funding for health care and education. I don't see social issues being as much of a factor. Kaine is trying to pull a (Mark) Warner and taking a centrist stand on social issues (for instance, Kaine has stated his support for the 2nd Amendment). If the election were held today, I'd give Kilgore a slight edge, but right now, the race for the Governor's Mansion hasn't really begun yet.   
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MHS2002
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2005, 08:13:59 pm »


If I recall correctly, he is from Winchester, Virginia, a rural-ish city that voted Bush with about 57%.

Alcon...as a resident of Winchester and Frederick County, I can tell you that the area won't be "rural-ish" for very long. Commuters from DC are pouring in by the thousands and something new is being built here every day. I would call Winchester more of a DC exurb at this point.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2005, 08:39:25 am »

id probably vote for potts, as kilgore and kaine are both pretty awful.

anyone remember the 94 senate race when marshall coleman and doug wilder both ran as independents?
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afcassidy
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2005, 11:50:50 pm »

That was pretty crazy... Coleman scored about 11% right?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2005, 11:38:15 am »

That was pretty crazy... Coleman scored about 11% right?

yes i think so.

wilder actually dropped out before election day (which probably saved chuck robb's butt).  i believe president clinton made wilder an ambassador to some african nation to entice him out of the race.

wilder and robb hated each other.  they had a bitter feud dating back to the early 80s.

by the way, isnt wilder the mayor of richmond now?
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MHS2002
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2005, 02:34:09 pm »


by the way, isnt wilder the mayor of richmond now?

Yes he is.
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afcassidy
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« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2005, 09:46:52 pm »


Interesting.  From the '92 Democratic primary field now Wilder is mayor of Richmond and Brown is mayor of Oakland.  Bob Kerrey should've jumped into the NYC race to make it a trifecta.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2005, 09:52:34 pm »


Interesting.  From the '92 Democratic primary field now Wilder is mayor of Richmond and Brown is mayor of Oakland.  Bob Kerrey should've jumped into the NYC race to make it a trifecta.

Or Tsongas in Boston.
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Akno21
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« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2005, 10:27:53 pm »


Interesting.  From the '92 Democratic primary field now Wilder is mayor of Richmond and Brown is mayor of Oakland.  Bob Kerrey should've jumped into the NYC race to make it a trifecta.

Or Tsongas in Boston.

Isn't he dead now?
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2005, 10:50:58 pm »


Interesting.  From the '92 Democratic primary field now Wilder is mayor of Richmond and Brown is mayor of Oakland.  Bob Kerrey should've jumped into the NYC race to make it a trifecta.

Or Tsongas in Boston.

Isn't he dead now?

Yes, he saddly died of cancer in January 1997.
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King
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2005, 11:12:52 pm »

i believe president clinton made wilder an ambassador to some african nation to entice him out of the race.

Ambassador to Nigeria is so much more prestigous than U.S. Senator Tongue
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afcassidy
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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2005, 03:21:08 am »


"Ambassador to Nigeria is so much more prestigous than U.S. Senator" 

Well... Ambassador to Nigeria is better than... well... nothing. 
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2005, 04:39:21 pm »

I pretty much agree with Jake (though I'd dec. Kilgore's range to 48-52).  Here's what I think may happen:
Kaine--49%
Kilgore--48%
Potts--2%
Others--1%
Whether Kilgore or Kaine wins, I don't think either would break 50%.  Kaine is supposedly more liberal than Warner, but Kilgore seems to be acting like a baby about the accent thing (which he's exacerbating / faking / embellishing like our current president from New Haven).  Potts:2005 VA Gov. Race::Perot:1992 Pres. race.
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afcassidy
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« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2005, 02:23:07 pm »


Potts might be like Perot, but Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992.

I suspect a better than expected showing for him... at least 7-10%.  As for the others, there aren't any... it's a 3-man race.
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