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Author Topic: Marist/NBC4 MD Poll: Clinton +22 Trump +12  (Read 3681 times)
Fargobison
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« on: April 12, 2016, 10:32:10 pm »

Clinton 58%
Sanders 36%

Trump 41%
Cruz 29%
Kasich 24%

http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2016, 10:35:28 pm »

This is probably Kasich's best chance for a win, but he doesn't look all that competitive. I'm still kind of surprised Sanders isn't down by 30+ here, like he was before, but I guess the results could resemble VA or NC, and Sanders might not get absolutely pummeled like he did in the Deep South.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2016, 10:47:12 pm »

This is probably Kasich's best chance for a win, but he doesn't look all that competitive. I'm still kind of surprised Sanders isn't down by 30+ here, like he was before, but I guess the results could resemble VA or NC, and Sanders might not get absolutely pummeled like he did in the Deep South.

There are probably enough liberal whites here to give Sanders a respectable floor here (there is a ton of visible support for Sanders where I live here in MoCo), but probably not much room to grow upwards.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2016, 10:48:31 pm »

Trump would vulnerable here in a head to head but fortunately for him that isn't going to be the case.

Kasich should be much stronger here, this poll is bad news for him.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2016, 11:26:16 pm »

And again - again - Cruz struggles to hit 30% at this stage. That's the pattern, but some people hacks want to rig a major convention for this guy? Come on.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2016, 11:30:53 pm »

Awful news for Sanders.
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2016, 11:37:49 pm »

I am surprised - This is pretty damn good for Sanders - MD has one of the highest Black population, higher than NC or SC I think.

If there is one state where Clinton can win 34-40-45% it is MD - 22% now, I am hoping with time left, Sanders can push & get a NC type result & get to a 16-17% loss!
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marty
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2016, 11:52:44 pm »

I am surprised - This is pretty damn good for Sanders - MD has one of the highest Black population, higher than NC or SC I think.

If there is one state where Clinton can win 34-40-45% it is MD - 22% now, I am hoping with time left, Sanders can push & get a NC type result & get to a 16-17% loss!

LOL
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Castro
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2016, 12:07:04 am »

And again - again - Cruz struggles to hit 30% at this stage. That's the pattern, but some people hacks want to rig a major convention for this guy? Come on.

It's not rigging. If Trump doesn't get to 1237, that's on him. The majority of delegates were unable to decide on one candidate, and thus all is fair game after the 1st ballot.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2016, 12:08:15 am »

Awful news for Sanders.

Sanders's target in Maryland is only 40%. 36% with two weeks to go is a great place to be.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2016, 12:12:05 am »

Awful news for Sanders.

Sanders's target in Maryland is only 40%. 36% with two weeks to go is a great place to be.

Aiming to lose when you're already way behind and with time running out?  Great strategy.
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2016, 12:21:18 am »

Awful news for Sanders.

Sanders's target in Maryland is only 40%. 36% with two weeks to go is a great place to be.

Aiming to lose when you're already way behind and with time running out?  Great strategy.

I think you'll find that winning in Maryland or even coming closer than 20 points there is unnecessary to catch up in pledged delegates by June 7 if you look at the math. I've linked the set of margins Sanders needs in my sig. And yes, I think him landsliding in OR/WV/ND/SD and getting 60% in PA is less unrealistic than him making MD a close race.

Obviously you can mix and match things - giving Clinton a 10 point win in Maryland gives Sanders room to fall below some of his other april 26 targets - for instance, he can settle for 60% in RI, 59% in PA, and 58% in CT and still end up 1 delegate ahead after June 7. But I think Sanders getting to 45% in Maryland is far more of a pipe dream than him getting 60% in PA, 61% in CT, and 65% in RI.
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« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2016, 01:09:05 am »

Mississippi   - 37
Louisiana   - 32
Georgia   - 30.5
Maryland   - 29.4
South Carolina - 27.9
Alabama - 26.2
North Carolina -    21.5

(Rough % of Black Population in different states - In a Dem Primary this number becomes 1.5-2 times as % of population as most black people vote in the Dems than say GOP).

Look at the states around Maryland with similar Black % - Louisiana, Georgia, SC, Alabama - These states Sanders got 19-26/27/28% of the votes. I would say take an average of 23-24%.

He is already @ 36% at MD without even campaigning much - We have seen that margins tend to go down in states where Sanders campaigns heavily. (there maybe some exceptions).

I think 40% is a realistic target & if he does very well in NY, he can get 43-44% in MD at best, which is tremendous. In a state, with say 60% of the Dem primary voters are say Black, crossing 40% is fairly decent.
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« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2016, 02:35:35 am »

He is already @ 36% at MD without even campaigning much - We have seen that margins tend to go down in states where Sanders campaigns heavily. (there maybe some exceptions).
No way does Sanders campaign there, let alone heavily enough to make a difference. He only has a week and has much more fertile ground elsewhere with four other, not as diverse states, voting. WP already had him at 40 and he's likely stuck around here no matter what he does in MD.
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A Perez
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2016, 04:09:40 am »

I am surprised - This is pretty damn good for Sanders - MD has one of the highest Black population, higher than NC or SC I think.

If there is one state where Clinton can win 34-40-45% it is MD - 22% now, I am hoping with time left, Sanders can push & get a NC type result & get to a 16-17% loss!
Why are you surprised being that Hillary led MD by only 15% in a poll before this one?
I think you are lowering expectations.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2016, 06:35:32 am »

New Poll: Maryland President by Marist College on 2016-04-09

Summary:
Trump:
41%
Cruz:
29%
Kasich:
24%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2016, 06:37:14 am »

New Poll: Maryland President by Marist College on 2016-04-09

Summary:
Clinton:
58%
Sanders:
36%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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swf541
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2016, 09:42:28 am »

Looks much more accurate than the TargetPoint poll
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2016, 10:35:15 am »

I can see Sanders getting 36% here. On election night. If he's lucky. NoVA already showed us how PG and Montgomery counties will vote, and we know that Clinton will get at least 75% of the black vote like in every other southern state.

And even if the margin is magically 20%, that's still a poor showing with so few states left to vote afterwards.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2016, 10:38:33 am »

I can see Sanders getting 36% here. On election night. If he's lucky. NoVA already showed us how PG and Montgomery counties will vote, and we know that Clinton will get at least 75% of the black vote like in every other southern state.

Maryland is not a southern state. Period.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2016, 10:42:38 am »

I can see Sanders getting 36% here. On election night. If he's lucky. NoVA already showed us how PG and Montgomery counties will vote, and we know that Clinton will get at least 75% of the black vote like in every other southern state.

Maryland is not a southern state. Period.

We all know that Wulfric asserting something makes it a fact.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2016, 10:47:17 am »

I can see Sanders getting 36% here. On election night. If he's lucky. NoVA already showed us how PG and Montgomery counties will vote, and we know that Clinton will get at least 75% of the black vote like in every other southern state.

Maryland is not a southern state. Period.

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« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2016, 11:16:03 am »

I can see Sanders getting 36% here. On election night. If he's lucky. NoVA already showed us how PG and Montgomery counties will vote, and we know that Clinton will get at least 75% of the black vote like in every other southern state.

Maryland is not a southern state. Period.



haha owned

Srsly tho Wulfric, you gotta educate yourself
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xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2016, 11:20:04 am »

Maryland could be considered a Southern state, but that doesn't mean AAs in the state will vote the same way they did in Alabama. This poll is suggesting Sanders might be at more like MI-level support with AAs in Maryland. He needs to better to make this race respectable at all, but as I've said before, it looks like the MD numbers will resemble VA or NC, and won't be the same kind of blowout for Clinton that the Deep South was.
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« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2016, 11:21:17 am »

Uh, Clinton won Virginia almost 2:1.
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