NY-Marist: Hillary +17

[RogueBeaver]

57/40.

[Ebsy]

Identical to her 2008 performance.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, this one is over.

Of course it is. New York is the closest of the closed primaries. Weekend at Bernies can't get any crossover vote from Indies because they had to reregister as Democrats in October in order to vote.

[Ebsy]

Extremely interesting crosstab:

Jewish vote (16% of the electorate):

Clinton: 65
Sanders: 32

[Wiz in Wis]

Not a big shift, but shows this lead is durable. No reason to suspect Sanders can pull this out without a major Clinton catastrophe.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm sticking with my Hillary +8 prediction for now, though I might change it depending on what happens at the debate tonight.

[dspNY]

Extremely interesting crosstab:

Jewish vote (16% of the electorate):

Clinton: 65
Sanders: 32

Very believable. Massachusetts' Jewish precincts went 2-1 for Hillary. In fact this lead could be bigger because of Sanders' remarks about 10,000 dead in Gaza in 2014 in the NYDN interview

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful!

No wonder his campaign is desperately trying to rile up his angry sexist male base in these closing days.

[Holmes]

End it, Clinton.

[RJEvans]

End it, Clinton.

I do want to see another poll though. One does not make a trend.

NY won't end it. But a clean sweep on 4/26 may change the tone of this campaign. That's all I want. I don't like that Bernie and his surrogates are using such attacks on Clinton. Attacks that the GOP are already taking advantage of. If she can get a clean sweep I think Bernie will realize this is lost.

[dspNY]

End it, Clinton.

I do want to see another poll though. One does not make a trend.

NY won't end it. But a clean sweep on 4/26 may change the tone of this campaign. That's all I want. I don't like that Bernie and his surrogates are using such attacks on Clinton. Attacks that the GOP are already taking advantage of. If she can get a clean sweep I think Bernie will realize this is lost.

Even a 4-1 split on 4/26 with Sanders edging it in Rhode Island might have that effect, as long as the PA and MD margins are sizable

[The Other Castro]

I wonder what it means by "Potential Democratic Electorate", since that has Clinton leading by a smaller margin of 53-42.

[Ebsy]

I wonder what it means by "Potential Democratic Electorate", since that has Clinton leading by a smaller margin of 53-42.

Looking at the poll pdf, Potential Democratic Electorate is likely just RV. Clinton's gain with RVs was actually outside of the margin of error, incidentally.

[EliteLX]

Beautiful!

No wonder his campaign is desperately trying to rile up his angry sexist male base in these closing days.

Haha oh I'm sure you'll find just droves of digusting sexists awaiting the revocation of the 19th amendment in that pile of hippies Lief

[Xing]

Looks like I'll be sticking with my prediction of a 14/15% win for Clinton.

[IceSpear]

Identical to her 2008 performance.

Around what I've expected for a while now.

[IceSpear]

End it, Clinton.

What do you mean? If you mean literally end it, he's not dropping out even if he lost NY 99-1. If you mean de facto, then that's already happened.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

End it, Clinton.

What do you mean? If you mean literally end it, he's not dropping out even if he lost NY 99-1. If you mean de facto, then that's already happened.

But I think we are reaching a point where even the Bernbots would admit that a loss in New York is the end. And as awful as it sounds, demoralizing his base is kind of important right now, because things are getting a little out of control.

[IceSpear]

End it, Clinton.

What do you mean? If you mean literally end it, he's not dropping out even if he lost NY 99-1. If you mean de facto, then that's already happened.

But I think we are reaching a point where even the Bernbots would admit that a loss in New York is the end.

I see you're an eternal optimist. Ain't gonna happen.

The realistic ones have already realized it after 3/1 and/or 3/15. The rest will just pin their hopes on winning California by 30+ points.

[Lief 🗽]

I think if Clinton wins NY and then sweeps the next five states, people will start to realize that this is over. No one but the craziest Bernie Bros think Sanders can win California by 40 points.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think if Clinton wins NY and then sweeps the next five states, people will start to realize that this is over. No one but the craziest Bernie Bros think Sanders can win California by 40 points.

Wanna bet that even if he gets swept everywhere the old codger and his campaign lackeys will refuse to drop out and will continue panhandling their gullible supporters for more money?

[Ogre Mage]

I think if Clinton wins NY and then sweeps the next five states, people will start to realize that this is over. No one but the craziest Bernie Bros think Sanders can win California by 40 points.

How numerous is this crazy fringe among his supporters?  I fear they are pretty significant, but perhaps the Internet makes them look bigger than they actually are.

[angus]

How numerous is this crazy fringe among his supporters?  I fear they are pretty significant, but perhaps the Internet makes them look bigger than they actually are.

Resistance is futile.  You will all be assimilated.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Identical to her 2008 performance.

Also identical to their prediction for Michigan.

While I think it's pretty certain she'll win NY, it doesn't exactly seem like a good omen.

[OkThen]

Identical to her 2008 performance.

Also identical to their prediction for Michigan.

While I think it's pretty certain she'll win NY, it doesn't exactly seem like a good omen.

Hillary won Democrats in Michigan 58-40. Bernie won because he won 71% of independents. NY is a closed primary so much less likely to have a Michigan repeat.