NY-0ptimus: Trump 49, Kasich 24, Cruz 14

[yankeesfan]

Probably garbage based on the Wisconsin results, but presented all the same.  It's broken out by region.

Trump 49
Kasich 24
Cruz 14

http://politicalmachination.com/poll-new-york-2016-presidential-primary-2/

Politico Summary:
"In the poll, Trump’s strongest showings are on Long Island and in Brooklyn, Queens, and Staten Island in New York City, where he’s above or within the margin of error of 50 percent in 10 congressional districts. His weakest spots are a swath of upstate districts where he polled closer to 40 percent than to a majority. In the two congressional districts that cover Buffalo and its surrounding area, Trump hovered right around 50 percent.

Overall, the survey shows Trump well above the 50 percent threshold in five districts. It has him within the margin of error of the 50 percent threshold in another 14 districts. He is below that threshold in eight districts. A couple of the most heavily Democratic seats, such as Rep. Charlie Rangel’s district, have very small sample sizes, rendering the results statistically insignificant."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trump-poised-for-new-york-landslide-221985

[swf541]

After their previous debacles, throw it in the trash.

[ashridge]

Optimus had Kasich beating Cruz in Wisconsin. Cruz beat Kasich by 34%. Optimus may be worse than ARG, seems to always overstate Kasich support too, like ARG. Was the House polling org. for Rubio campaign.

[Seriously?]

I think they overstated Kasich's support in Wisconsin at the expense of Cruz.

13% undecided is a lot, if this was basically a coordinated internal for Kasich (which has been suggested here on the WI threads), that number does not shock me.

Of note, when they pushed the undecideds, it shrinks to 9%, Trump is roughly at 51%, Kasich 26% and Cruz 14%.

They polled landlines only, using voter registration data for Registered Republicans.

With that said, the Politico report is wrong in one respect: If Trump is held under 50%, Cruz wouldn't get a single delegate of the 14 statewide delegates that are up for grabs because he didn't meet the 20% threshold.

He'd be shut out. Trump would then get roughly 2/3s of the statewide delegation with a split of roughly 10-4 or 9-5. (We'll assume 10-4 because Trump more than doubles Kasich's support.)

Trump is in position to win all 27 CDs. He's over 50% in 10 of those districts. He's under 50% in 17. Kasich is second in 15 districts and Cruz 2 (CD 9 and 10).

The MOE is terrible >6% in CD 7 (D+34), 8 (D+35), 13 (D+42) and 15 (D+43) where there aren't that many Republicans.

The split would be 74 Trump, 19 Kasich, 2 Cruz in this absolute worst-case scenario.

Assuming a uniform shift
if Trump actually breaks 50%, it's 80/13/2 as 4 statewide and 2 CDs would move into the Trump > 50% category.
If Trump gets to 53% (RCP average), it becomes roughly 84/10/1.
At 55%, it would swing to 85/9/1.
At 60% (best case) you'd be looking at 92/2/1 and even the three remaining CDs where Trump allegedly runs worst (CD 10, 15 and 24) would be marginal for 50%+1.

[dax00]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwpQSOvk_aoAcmtyZ3lISE5tanc/view

I used their figures to extrapolate (in parentheses)

→ (delegate range)
State: Trump 49.1 (53.7), Kasich 23.9 (27.9), Cruz 13.1 (15.4) → Trump 14
CD1: Trump 53 (60), Kasich 25 (29), Cruz 8 (11) → Trump 3
CD2: Trump 57 (63), Kasich 20 (28), Cruz 7 (9) → Trump 3
CD3: Trump 55 (60), Kasich 24 (29), Cruz 8 (11) → Trump 3
CD4: Trump 53 (56), Kasich 24 (32), Cruz 9 (12) → Trump 3
CD5*: Trump 53 (56), Kasich 18 (24), Cruz 17 (20) → Trump 3
CD6: Trump 57 (62), Kasich 20 (24), Cruz 11 (14) → Trump 3
CD7*: Trump 46 (54), Kasich 25 (27), Cruz 17 (19) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD8*: Trump 56 (63), Kasich 17 (22), Cruz 14 (15) → Trump 3
CD9*: Trump 47 (52), Kasich 21 (25), Cruz 23 (23) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1, Cruz 0-1
CD10: Trump 38 (43), Kasich 23 (27), Cruz 28 (30) → Trump 2, Kasich 0-1, Cruz 0-1
CD11: Trump 70 (76), Kasich 13 (15), Cruz 8 (9) → Trump 3
CD12: Trump 41 (45), Kasich 35 (40), Cruz 13 (15) → Trump 2, Kasich 1
CD13*: Trump 41 (42), Kasich 25 (34), Cruz 17 (24) → Trump 2, Kasich 1
CD14*: Trump 62 (67), Kasich 15 (20), Cruz 11 (13) → Trump 3
CD15**: Trump 38 (45), Kasich 22 (28), Cruz 19 (27) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1, Cruz 0-1
CD16: Trump 49 (53), Kasich 30 (36), Cruz 10 (11) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD17: Trump 52 (58), Kasich 22 (26), Cruz 13 (16) → Trump 3
CD18: Trump 51 (58), Kasich 25 (29), Cruz 11 (13) → Trump 3
CD19: Trump 47 (54), Kasich 25 (30), Cruz 14 (16) → Trump 3
CD20: Trump 42 (51), Kasich 24 (31), Cruz 15 (18) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD21: Trump 43 (48), Kasich 26 (34), Cruz 13 (18) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD22: Trump 43 (52), Kasich 21 (27), Cruz 18 (21) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD23: Trump 40 (47), Kasich 26 (30), Cruz 17 (23) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD24: Trump 39 (45), Kasich 28 (37), Cruz 15 (18) → Trump 2, Kasich 1
CD25: Trump 44 (50), Kasich 27 (33), Cruz 13 (17) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD26: Trump 48 (53), Kasich 28 (31), Cruz 12 (16) → Trump 2-3, Kasich 0-1
CD27: Trump 49 (58), Kasich 22 (27), Cruz 13 (15) → Trump 3

Total Delegate Range: Trump 81-91, Kasich 3-14, Cruz 0-3
Probable Delegate Count: Trump 87, Kasich 7, Cruz 1
*  MoE >5%
**MoE >10%

[Vosem]

CD10: Trump 38 (43), Kasich 23 (27), Cruz 28 (30) → Trump 2, Kasich 0-1, Cruz 0-1

Bless the congressional district of my childhood ignoring the propaganda and giving Cruz a delegate! (probably)

[IceSpear]

LOL, Trump is cracking 70% in Staten Island!

Cruz is only getting 7% in Peter King's district.

[RR1997]

Donald Trump is going to dominate NY.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can we get the Megatron one now?