PA-Muhlenberg/Morning Call: Trump 41% Kasich 26% Cruz 23%

[Mr. Morden]

Muhlenberg College / Morning Call poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 7-12:

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html

Trump 41%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 23%

If Trump is the nominee, how would you vote in the GE?
Trump 66%
Clinton 9%
third party 13%
wouldn’t vote 5%
not sure 8%

[Comrade Funk]

Any bad news for Cruz is good news for America

[swf541]

Any bad news for Cruz is good news for America

Agreed, if Cruz ends up 3rd in PA, I'd say thats quite devestating

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

[Holmes]

Trump's numbers went up from Muhlenberg's previous poll.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

[Vosem]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

Not sure about pretty clearly; I think portions of Pennsylvania are Midwestern enough in their culture, as opposed to Northeastern, that Kasich and Cruz voters should prefer each other to _trump. I don't think _trump could win a 1-on-1 here. With either.

[Gass3268]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

Not sure about pretty clearly; I think portions of Pennsylvania are Midwestern enough in their culture, as opposed to Northeastern, that Kasich and Cruz voters should prefer each other to _trump. I don't think _trump could win a 1-on-1 here. With either.

Except that Trump is going to dominate in the Appalachian region, the most Midwestern area in PA, like he has everywhere else including Ohio.

[jaichind]

I would be interested in the regional breakdown.  It seems many of the unpledged PA delegates will go with the winner of they CD.  There are very few GOP voters in the urban areas but they make up several CDs and it is quite possible that Kasich might be ahead of Trump, even in this poll. Of course if this poll was accurate then the chances of Cruz beating Trump in the rural CDs are non-existent. 

[Seriously?]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

Not sure about pretty clearly; I think portions of Pennsylvania are Midwestern enough in their culture, as opposed to Northeastern, that Kasich and Cruz voters should prefer each other to _trump. I don't think _trump could win a 1-on-1 here. With either.

Eastern PA will just be an extension of NY. I don't see a viable path for Cruz or the Ohio governor that has won exactly one state here.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

Not sure about pretty clearly; I think portions of Pennsylvania are Midwestern enough in their culture, as opposed to Northeastern, that Kasich and Cruz voters should prefer each other to _trump. I don't think _trump could win a 1-on-1 here. With either.

Yep, what Gass said, and I'd also add that outside of the literal city limits of Pittsburgh, the only places he struggles are the northeastern suburbs. He's still likely to come out in front in a 3-way there.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ugh, there's no clear Anti-Trump.

He'd pretty clearly win a 2-way with either, especially with Cruz.

Not sure about pretty clearly; I think portions of Pennsylvania are Midwestern enough in their culture, as opposed to Northeastern, that Kasich and Cruz voters should prefer each other to _trump. I don't think _trump could win a 1-on-1 here. With either.

Yep, what Gass said plus I'd add that the only other place he struggles outside the city limits of Pittsburgh are the northeastern leaning parts of the state, which he has a decent shot at in a 3 way (and as I said, Cruz doesn't have a prayer here, it's Kasich that is stronger than he is as you go north).