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  NJ - Rutgers: Clinton 51%, Sanders 42%
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Author Topic: NJ - Rutgers: Clinton 51%, Sanders 42%  (Read 1777 times)
yankeesfan
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« on: April 18, 2016, 05:52:08 pm »

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2016, 06:19:13 pm »

A single digit race in New Jersey? Hockeydude is liable to have a brain aneurysm.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2016, 06:33:26 pm »

Clinton apparently gained massively over the course of the polling period:

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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2016, 06:38:01 pm »

Clinton apparently gained massively over the course of the polling period:



A 9 point lead in NJ isn't a gain no matter how you spin it.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2016, 06:41:10 pm »

Clinton apparently gained massively over the course of the polling period:



A 9 point lead in NJ isn't a gain no matter how you spin it.

She only won it by 10 in 2008, im not shocked if she wins the by the same margin this time. That being said, I think this poll is underestimating her.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2016, 06:41:39 pm »

I wasn't spinning, just making an observation. Polls are polls are polls.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2016, 06:45:39 pm »

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2016, 07:00:11 pm »

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.

Not a fully closed primary (indies can declare a preference at the voting booth) but the registration deadline for everyone is 3 weeks before the election.

In 2008, Jersey held their primary on Super Tuesday and only 19% of the electorate was independent. This poll has 32% independents. No way is that going to happen, so this poll is understating Clinton by at least 6-7 points
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2016, 07:04:56 pm »

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.

Not a fully closed primary (indies can declare a preference at the voting booth) but the registration deadline for everyone is 3 weeks before the election.

In 2008, Jersey held their primary on Super Tuesday and only 19% of the electorate was independent. This poll has 32% independents. No way is that going to happen, so this poll is understating Clinton by at least 6-7 points

That's still a lot more open than NY is. Interesting.
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dspNY
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2016, 07:07:41 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 07:10:02 pm by dspNY »

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.

Not a fully closed primary (indies can declare a preference at the voting booth) but the registration deadline for everyone is 3 weeks before the election.

In 2008, Jersey held their primary on Super Tuesday and only 19% of the electorate was independent. This poll has 32% independents. No way is that going to happen, so this poll is understating Clinton by at least 6-7 points

That's still a lot more open than NY is. Interesting.

NY is historically super-closed in part because the big parties like having smaller parties (WFP, Independence, Conservative) cross-endorse candidates. If NY wasn't closed those parties would be subsumed into the big two. NY is one of the last states with smaller state-centric parties. The WFP grew out of the old Liberal Party which Jacob Javits ran on once after losing his primary to Al D'Amato
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2016, 07:22:42 pm »

About where I think polling would be, but she'll win cleanly in the end.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2016, 09:03:57 pm »

This is one poll, but if I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't be optimistic about this poll. NJ should be as good of a state for Clinton as NY (if not better, due to how urban it is), so a 9-point lead this far out is hardly great for her.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2016, 09:38:43 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 09:41:30 pm by Fusionmunster »

This is one poll, but if I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't be optimistic about this poll. NJ should be as good of a state for Clinton as NY (if not better, due to how urban it is), so a 9-point lead this far out is hardly great for her.

I mean, NJ is urban in a sense. We have no major cities(the cities we do have are small and run down) and plenty of wealthy suburbs. We also have quite a few "sparsely" populated ruby red countys in the northwest and southeast. Sanders, just like Republicans, should have a high floor but a low ceiling. Dont be shocked if the result map looks identical to the 2008 general election.
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Shadows
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2016, 10:28:33 pm »

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.

Not bad for a Clinton supporter as well - Apart from Maryland, Virgin Islands & Delaware, I think blowouts or big victories would be hard to obtain for Clinton!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2016, 10:35:51 pm »

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.

Not bad for a Clinton supporter as well - Apart from Maryland, Virgin Islands & Delaware, I think blowouts or big victories would be hard to obtain for Clinton!

Its not competitive because neither candidate can afford to campaign here over California. We have two media markets, NYC and Philadelphia. If Sanders is smart, he ignores NJ and goes all in on a state that isnt fools gold.
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Shadows
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2016, 10:42:34 pm »

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.

Not bad for a Clinton supporter as well - Apart from Maryland, Virgin Islands & Delaware, I think blowouts or big victories would be hard to obtain for Clinton!

Its not competitive because neither candidate can afford to campaign here over California. We have two media markets, NYC and Philadelphia. If Sanders is smart, he ignores NJ and goes all in on a state that isnt fools gold.

I do agree on that but there's around 20 odd days with no polls (maybe only PR) n stuff - And then you have got CA/NJ/MT/ND/SD/NM etc. If I was Sanders I would compete in every state & those 20 odd days give sufficient time - You take 6-7 days & give to NJ/MT/ND/SD etc & keep the rest 13-14 days for CA which is big.

I mean you only need 2-3 days of rallies & some ads n stuff to get a foothold!
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Desroko
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2016, 11:27:13 pm »

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.


We are long past the point where "it might maybe possibly be sorta competitive" is a reasonable standard. Sanders is behind by a mile and needs landslide victories.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2016, 02:10:22 am »

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.

Not a fully closed primary (indies can declare a preference at the voting booth) but the registration deadline for everyone is 3 weeks before the election.

In 2008, Jersey held their primary on Super Tuesday and only 19% of the electorate was independent. This poll has 32% independents. No way is that going to happen, so this poll is understating Clinton by at least 6-7 points

That's still a lot more open than NY is. Interesting.

Anything is more open than NY. Even the 2 other states where you're sh**t out of luck if you're an independent 31 days before the election.
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