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September 17, 2019, 09:38:36 am
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  NJ - Rutgers: Clinton 51%, Sanders 42% (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ - Rutgers: Clinton 51%, Sanders 42%  (Read 1755 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: April 18, 2016, 06:41:10 pm »

Clinton apparently gained massively over the course of the polling period:



A 9 point lead in NJ isn't a gain no matter how you spin it.

She only won it by 10 in 2008, im not shocked if she wins the by the same margin this time. That being said, I think this poll is underestimating her.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2016, 09:38:43 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 09:41:30 pm by Fusionmunster »

This is one poll, but if I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't be optimistic about this poll. NJ should be as good of a state for Clinton as NY (if not better, due to how urban it is), so a 9-point lead this far out is hardly great for her.

I mean, NJ is urban in a sense. We have no major cities(the cities we do have are small and run down) and plenty of wealthy suburbs. We also have quite a few "sparsely" populated ruby red countys in the northwest and southeast. Sanders, just like Republicans, should have a high floor but a low ceiling. Dont be shocked if the result map looks identical to the 2008 general election.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2016, 10:35:51 pm »

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.

Not bad for a Clinton supporter as well - Apart from Maryland, Virgin Islands & Delaware, I think blowouts or big victories would be hard to obtain for Clinton!

Its not competitive because neither candidate can afford to campaign here over California. We have two media markets, NYC and Philadelphia. If Sanders is smart, he ignores NJ and goes all in on a state that isnt fools gold.
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