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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%  (Read 1125 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 21, 2016, 09:16:50 am »
« edited: April 21, 2016, 05:46:06 pm by Mr. Morden »

Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-18:

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/746493212120738645-f-m-poll-release-april-2016.pdf

Dems

Clinton 58%
Sanders 31%

GOP

Trump 40%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 24%
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Joshua
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2016, 09:17:26 am »

lol
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2016, 09:58:00 am »

WOW! Beautiful!
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2016, 10:07:47 am »

11% under 35? Junk.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2016, 10:54:28 am »

I feel like it'll be a bit closer on the Democratic side and a bit wider on the Republican side
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Shadows
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2016, 11:33:37 am »

Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep!
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2016, 11:33:59 am »

Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep!

True that.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2016, 12:00:53 pm »

The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2016, 12:15:12 pm »

Wow, they found a way to go to April 81st!!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2016, 12:19:24 pm »

FWIW, in 2008 the Dem electorate was 12% 18-29 and 22% 65+.

Also it had 14% independents and 3% Republicans.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2016, 12:47:55 pm »

He's dead Jim!
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IceSpear
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P P

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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2016, 01:09:54 pm »

Well, looks like F&M's reputation is about to take a hit.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2016, 01:15:26 pm »

I expect it to be closer than this.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2016, 01:28:16 pm »

This lead is probably too big. I think Monmouth is on the money or very close to it
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A Perez
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2016, 01:49:19 pm »

Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-81:



This poll is bullsh**t, because April doesn't have 81 days.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2016, 01:50:03 pm »

This poll is bullsh**t, because April doesn't have 81 days.

LOL
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Clarko95
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2016, 04:15:47 pm »

The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.

Pennsylvania's electorate has always skewed older. This particular poll might skew that a bit more, but a 10 point race would be 55% - 45% and a 15 point race would be 57% - 42%.

Hillary getting 58% is optimistic, but entirely within reach.
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dspNY
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« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2016, 04:51:29 pm »

The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.

Pennsylvania's electorate has always skewed older. This particular poll might skew that a bit more, but a 10 point race would be 55% - 45% and a 15 point race would be 57% - 42%.

Hillary getting 58% is optimistic, but entirely within reach.

2008 Democratic primary age breakdowns:

12% under 30
19% 30-44
37% 45-59
33% 60+

A plurality of that electorate voted for Bill twice and Hillary in 2008. I think a 27 point win is incredibly unrealistic but 12-15 points is certainly in the ballpark
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 05:05:00 am »

Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz
Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz
Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump
Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie
Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz
Central: Trump +6 over Cruz
Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Clinton 69/25% for +44%
Sanders 66/24% for +42%

Kasich 55/25% for +30%
Trump 46/44% for +2%
Cruz 45/44% for +1%
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 05:08:28 am »

I would be shocked if the Southwest is a Cruz/trump tie. That implies Cruz has a shot in West Virginia. Most of the rest of it looks legit.
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 06:51:39 pm »

Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz
Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz
Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump
Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie
Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz
Central: Trump +6 over Cruz
Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Clinton 69/25% for +44%
Sanders 66/24% for +42%

Kasich 55/25% for +30%
Trump 46/44% for +2%
Cruz 45/44% for +1%


Wow, it's almost as if Allegheny County is nothing like the rest of southwestern Pennsylvania politically. Who knew?
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