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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA-Gravis: Clinton 47% Sanders 41%
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Author Topic: CA-Gravis: Clinton 47% Sanders 41%  (Read 745 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 20, 2016, 10:43:32 pm »

Gravis poll of California, conducted April 7-10:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-democratic-primary-polling/


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polnut
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2016, 10:46:42 pm »

Phew - it's Gravis.
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marty
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2016, 10:52:15 pm »

R side?
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2016, 11:07:47 pm »

R side?

Who cares? It's Gravis.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2016, 11:11:43 pm »

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2016, 11:15:52 pm »

Same margin as their NY poll, lol.

I do think this will be a single digit race though, barring something major.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2016, 11:18:04 pm »

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.
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polnut
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2016, 11:26:43 pm »

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.

As is the ideological make-up... like... a lot.

2008 exit poll
Liberal - 51%
Moderate - 37%
Conservative - 13%

This poll
Liberal - 31%
Moderate - 39%
Conservative - 30%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2016, 11:30:06 pm »

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.

But CA will be his last stand, and the donations will likely reach an unprecedented level due to this. On top of that, Hillary is mostly saving her money for the general at this point. He outspent her something like 10:1 in Wisconsin and 2:1 in New York.
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mds32
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2016, 11:57:23 pm »

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.

As is the ideological make-up... like... a lot.

2008 exit poll
Liberal - 51%
Moderate - 37%
Conservative - 13%

This poll
Liberal - 31%
Moderate - 39%
Conservative - 30%

That could be overall since they poll the Senate race
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2016, 12:24:48 am »

Same margin as their NY poll, lol.

I do think this will be a single digit race though, barring something major.

I'm guessing a 4-7% margin, myself.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2016, 01:19:13 am »

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.

But CA will be his last stand, and the donations will likely reach an unprecedented level due to this. On top of that, Hillary is mostly saving her money for the general at this point. He outspent her something like 10:1 in Wisconsin and 2:1 in New York.

I'm not denying that Sanders will also put up a huge effort, but the votes just might not be there for him to really make it competitive. He'll do well in Northern CA, and SF should be a good city for him, but I don't think that's be anywhere near enough to offset how badly he'll get beaten in SoCal.
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A Perez
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2016, 09:33:12 am »

Gravis predicted a 6% victory for Clinton. She won by 16%.
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cxs018
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2016, 09:39:47 am »

lol gravis
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2016, 05:57:58 pm »

Ironically it matches the Field Poll which is just as much of a gold standard as Ann Selzer

Still LOL Gravis. Interestingly all polling in California has Clinton ahead and I think most of the electorate there is locked in since we are so far into the process (fewer persuadable votes)
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