CA-Gravis: Clinton 47% Sanders 41%

[Mr. Morden]

Gravis poll of California, conducted April 7-10:

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/california-democratic-primary-polling/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Phew - it's Gravis.

[Matty]

R side?

[Holmes]

R side?

Who cares? It's Gravis.

[Ebsy]

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.

[IceSpear]

Same margin as their NY poll, lol.

I do think this will be a single digit race though, barring something major.

[Xing]

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.

As is the ideological make-up... like... a lot.

2008 exit poll
Liberal - 51%
Moderate - 37%
Conservative - 13%

This poll
Liberal - 31%
Moderate - 39%
Conservative - 30%

[IceSpear]

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.

But CA will be his last stand, and the donations will likely reach an unprecedented level due to this. On top of that, Hillary is mostly saving her money for the general at this point. He outspent her something like 10:1 in Wisconsin and 2:1 in New York.

[mds32]

The racial breakdown of this poll seems way better than their Delaware poll, but their religion and gender shares are a little off.

As is the ideological make-up... like... a lot.

2008 exit poll
Liberal - 51%
Moderate - 37%
Conservative - 13%

This poll
Liberal - 31%
Moderate - 39%
Conservative - 30%

That could be overall since they poll the Senate race

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Same margin as their NY poll, lol.

I do think this will be a single digit race though, barring something major.

I'm guessing a 4-7% margin, myself.

[Xing]

I'm actually not confident at all that it'll be this close. Clinton might very well only invest in CA after May 17th, since she really doesn't need any of the other states (and can probably take NJ mostly for granted anyway). Because of how much she'll pour into this state, I wouldn't be surprised if the margin is close to what it was in NY, or maybe OH.

But CA will be his last stand, and the donations will likely reach an unprecedented level due to this. On top of that, Hillary is mostly saving her money for the general at this point. He outspent her something like 10:1 in Wisconsin and 2:1 in New York.

I'm not denying that Sanders will also put up a huge effort, but the votes just might not be there for him to really make it competitive. He'll do well in Northern CA, and SF should be a good city for him, but I don't think that's be anywhere near enough to offset how badly he'll get beaten in SoCal.

[A Perez]

Gravis predicted a 6% victory for Clinton. She won by 16%.

[This account no longer in use.]

lol gravis

[dspNY]

Ironically it matches the Field Poll which is just as much of a gold standard as Ann Selzer

Still LOL Gravis. Interestingly all polling in California has Clinton ahead and I think most of the electorate there is locked in since we are so far into the process (fewer persuadable votes)