PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% (user search)
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  PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%  (Read 1489 times)
dspNY
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Posts: 2,868
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« on: April 21, 2016, 01:28:16 PM »

This lead is probably too big. I think Monmouth is on the money or very close to it
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dspNY
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,868
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2016, 04:51:29 PM »

The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.

Pennsylvania's electorate has always skewed older. This particular poll might skew that a bit more, but a 10 point race would be 55% - 45% and a 15 point race would be 57% - 42%.

Hillary getting 58% is optimistic, but entirely within reach.

2008 Democratic primary age breakdowns:

12% under 30
19% 30-44
37% 45-59
33% 60+

A plurality of that electorate voted for Bill twice and Hillary in 2008. I think a 27 point win is incredibly unrealistic but 12-15 points is certainly in the ballpark
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