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  CA: Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies - Trump dominating
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Author Topic: CA: Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies - Trump dominating  (Read 2648 times)
Ronnie
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« on: April 21, 2016, 02:01:08 pm »

Trump 41%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 21%
Undecided 15%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/donald-trump-california-primary-poll-222277
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2016, 02:01:46 pm »

Damn.

California really is Trump country.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2016, 02:11:49 pm »

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Junk!

The methodology is wonky, to be sure, but the fact that they derive respondents from voter files makes me think "junk" is a stretch.
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Jacob Wohl
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2016, 02:26:58 pm »

Reagan country is TRUMP country!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2016, 02:47:07 pm »

I hope this is the last time I see Capitol, sex, dominating, strategy, and Trump together in one headline.
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swf541
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2016, 02:47:24 pm »

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Junk!

No, that actually sounds very different but plausibly ok
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2016, 02:59:31 pm »

Trump is very lucky the GOP primary is closed. Otherwise there could be a massive, last stand crossover voter to stop him.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2016, 03:51:31 pm »

This is a closed primary in a western state. 41% is a plausible percent for trump here (as compared to 49%, which was always fantasy), but I doubt Kasich is on track for 21%, and Cruz is definitely on track for way more than 23%, especially after he regains the fair-weather vote with his victories in May.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2016, 04:00:02 pm »

This is a closed primary in a western state. 41% is a plausible percent for trump here (as compared to 49%, which was always fantasy), but I doubt Kasich is on track for 21%, and Cruz is definitely on track for way more than 23%, especially after he regains the fair-weather vote with his victories in May.

Yeah, but a Trump 43%, Cruz 38% and Kasich/others 19% result is very possible. I could see Trump winning 30-35 congressional districts in that scenario.
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2016, 04:03:59 pm »

As I said, Trump's odds of getting 45+ CD wins out of CA have gone up substantially with his NY performance and polling in other urban blue states.  Anyone making a best/worst case scenario for him should assume he gets all but 9-15 CA delegates in his best case.

I think a better model for California would be Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky, rather than New York or New Jersey. Cruz definitely has a chance to win it, unlike the northeastern states, but he needs Kasich to leave the race.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2016, 04:04:23 pm »

This is a closed primary in a western state. 41% is a plausible percent for trump here (as compared to 49%, which was always fantasy), but I doubt Kasich is on track for 21%, and Cruz is definitely on track for way more than 23%, especially after he regains the fair-weather vote with his victories in May.

Yeah, but a Trump 43%, Cruz 38% and Kasich/others 19% result is very possible. I could see Trump winning 30-35 congressional districts in that scenario.

Sure, that kind of result is possible, but it's also probably good enough for #Nevertrump. He probably needs >40 CDs here for the nomination.
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2016, 05:20:49 pm »

As I said, Trump's odds of getting 45+ CD wins out of CA have gone up substantially with his NY performance and polling in other urban blue states.  Anyone making a best/worst case scenario for him should assume he gets all but 9-15 CA delegates in his best case.

I think a better model for California would be Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky, rather than New York or New Jersey. Cruz definitely has a chance to win it, unlike the northeastern states, but he needs Kasich to leave the race.

CA is so urban now that it isn't really Western in the sense that it was even 40 years ago.  It really has little or nothing in common with MO and KY (KY was a caucus anyway and should have been Trump +10-20 in a traditional primary).  There was an obvious home state effect for Trump in NY that can't be extrapolated.  Right now, I would put IL numbers as the upside scenario for Cruz in CA, with AZ/NV numbers being the downside scenario for Cruz in CA.  The former probably results in Trump getting 85-105 delegates, while the latter would be 140-160 delegates for Trump. PA might be a particularly good state to compare to because it has legacy socially moderate-liberal R's in a major city, rural devoutly religious R's and energy/agriculture R's, and all in meaningful numbers.

California doesn't have the equivalent of a Staten Island or even Long Island. It doesn't have anything like the Jersey shore. It doesn't have any area that is like lower Bucks, North East Philly or Delaware County. It doesn't even particularly have a history of moderate Republicans. Sure, there are some around the Bay Area and LA County but most of them are not even registered Republicans anymore. California is the land of Goldwater/Ronald Reagan conservatism. Cruz will do fine here.

Illinois is the best model for California I believe. With the Rubio votes mostly going towards Cruz, that still leaves him short of Trump. I am anticipating around a 5-6 point loss for Cruz if Kasich is still around. If Kasich leaves, I think Cruz will win by a few points. AZ and NV will be a good model for Inland Southern California but not the state as a whole.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2016, 08:40:47 pm »

I doubt Kasich is as strong in California as he was in Illinois, though; Illinois has a much stronger moderate Republican tradition, especially in the Chicago 'burbs, than California does, and in Illinois there was a perception that it was unclear whether Cruz or Kasich who was actually in second place, since there were very few polls and a great deal of movement (most of the last polls did have Cruz in second, including a weird YouGov poll that showed Cruz just 4 points behind trump, but there was also a perception that Rubio's support was melting away and going to Kasich, and definitely that Kasich had the momentum). Neither of those things should be present in California, where I'm confident there will be a straight Cruz vs. trump battle and the only Kasich votes will be those people who truly cannot stand either, and among registered Republicans in Cali such are rare. I doubt Kasich will end up winning a single county or CD here.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2016, 11:43:56 pm »

Dang, it's hard to believe Trump could do that well. Winning CA won't be enough for him to clinch the nomination, but if he wins by that much...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2016, 09:18:26 am »

https://www.scribd.com/doc/310021424/California-Primary-Poll-Crosstabs


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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2016, 09:19:40 am »

Even with a comfortable victory, the Trumpster won't reach the magic 1,237.
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swf541
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2016, 09:43:04 am »

Even with a comfortable victory, the Trumpster won't reach the magic 1,237.


If the above played out and he got much more delegates than we all thought out of it, I think he would
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PeteB
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2016, 10:25:04 am »

I think Trump does have a shot at getting the 1,237 but I suspect that strategic Anybody But Trump (ABT) voting will stop him. I am not sure however, that Cruz will be the sole recipient of it. I am not surprised that Kasich is doing well in the three largest CA metro areas (LA, SF and SD) and may get even stronger if he performs well I the NE primaries next week. Unless he totally flames out in the NE primaries coming up, Cruz should consolidate the ABT vote in OC, the Inland Empire, Central Valley and North.

My very early prediction is:

Cruz wins 8-12 CDs
Kasich wins 6-10 CDs
Trump carries the rest (30-40 CDs)
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 10:32:25 am »

You can't have a successful "Anyone But Trump" statewide campaign in California. The state is just too large, diverse and expensive. There can be some successful local campaigns but on a large scale, it's pointless. And sending "if you live here, vote Cruz, if you live here and here, vote Kasich" messages is just really confusing.
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PeteB
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 10:42:34 am »

You can't have a successful "Anyone But Trump" statewide campaign in California. The state is just too large, diverse and expensive. There can be some successful local campaigns but on a large scale, it's pointless. And sending "if you live here, vote Cruz, if you live here and here, vote Kasich" messages is just really confusing.

Which is why I am giving Trump a fighting chance to get to 1,237.  Especially since neither Cruz nor Kasich have sufficiently separated themselves in CA, for the voters to gravitate to either one option.  However, the remaining primaries may change all that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 11:27:50 am »


RIP #NeverTrump
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2016, 11:40:15 am »

Once again, with high undecideds and an overestimated Kasich, this poll is an acceptable, if not ideal, result for #Nevertrump. Outside of the northeast bubble Kasich always underperforms.
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ashridge
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2016, 02:47:16 pm »

This poll shows significantly different results than most other CA polls over the last month. What has changed in that time? Cruz has had more big wins than Trump has. And do California Republicans really care what NY did?
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swf541
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2016, 02:50:53 pm »

This poll shows significantly different results than most other CA polls over the last month. What has changed in that time? Cruz has had more big wins than Trump has. And do California Republicans really care what NY did?

Besides Wisconsin what other big wins did Cruz get?
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ashridge
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2016, 03:17:31 pm »

This poll shows significantly different results than most other CA polls over the last month. What has changed in that time? Cruz has had more big wins than Trump has. And do California Republicans really care what NY did?

Besides Wisconsin what other big wins did Cruz get?

Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming.
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