CA: Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies - Trump dominating

[PeteB]

I think Trump does have a shot at getting the 1,237 but I suspect that strategic Anybody But Trump (ABT) voting will stop him. I am not sure however, that Cruz will be the sole recipient of it. I am not surprised that Kasich is doing well in the three largest CA metro areas (LA, SF and SD) and may get even stronger if he performs well I the NE primaries next week. Unless he totally flames out in the NE primaries coming up, Cruz should consolidate the ABT vote in OC, the Inland Empire, Central Valley and North.

My very early prediction is:

Cruz wins 8-12 CDs
Kasich wins 6-10 CDs
Trump carries the rest (30-40 CDs)

[PeteB]

You can't have a successful "Anyone But Trump" statewide campaign in California. The state is just too large, diverse and expensive. There can be some successful local campaigns but on a large scale, it's pointless. And sending "if you live here, vote Cruz, if you live here and here, vote Kasich" messages is just really confusing.

Which is why I am giving Trump a fighting chance to get to 1,237.  Especially since neither Cruz nor Kasich have sufficiently separated themselves in CA, for the voters to gravitate to either one option.  However, the remaining primaries may change all that.