CA: Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies - Trump dominating

[Vosem]

This is a closed primary in a western state. 41% is a plausible percent for _trump here (as compared to 49%, which was always fantasy), but I doubt Kasich is on track for 21%, and Cruz is definitely on track for way more than 23%, especially after he regains the fair-weather vote with his victories in May.

[Vosem]

This is a closed primary in a western state. 41% is a plausible percent for _trump here (as compared to 49%, which was always fantasy), but I doubt Kasich is on track for 21%, and Cruz is definitely on track for way more than 23%, especially after he regains the fair-weather vote with his victories in May.

Yeah, but a Trump 43%, Cruz 38% and Kasich/others 19% result is very possible. I could see Trump winning 30-35 congressional districts in that scenario.

Sure, that kind of result is possible, but it's also probably good enough for #Never_trump. He probably needs >40 CDs here for the nomination.

[Vosem]

I doubt Kasich is as strong in California as he was in Illinois, though; Illinois has a much stronger moderate Republican tradition, especially in the Chicago 'burbs, than California does, and in Illinois there was a perception that it was unclear whether Cruz or Kasich who was actually in second place, since there were very few polls and a great deal of movement (most of the last polls did have Cruz in second, including a weird YouGov poll that showed Cruz just 4 points behind _trump, but there was also a perception that Rubio's support was melting away and going to Kasich, and definitely that Kasich had the momentum). Neither of those things should be present in California, where I'm confident there will be a straight Cruz vs. _trump battle and the only Kasich votes will be those people who truly cannot stand either, and among registered Republicans in Cali such are rare. I doubt Kasich will end up winning a single county or CD here.

[Vosem]

Once again, with high undecideds and an overestimated Kasich, this poll is an acceptable, if not ideal, result for #Never_trump. Outside of the northeast bubble Kasich always underperforms.