what changes are almost certainly going to happen to GOP primary process?

[Matty]

I could say changes that make the GOP look identical to the democrats in regards to nomination process.

[Crumpets]

Hating on Latinos and Muslims continues to be a winning strategy, so I expect we'll see more candidates with even more outlandish proposals in that regard in the future.

[Vosem]

Hating on Latinos and Muslims continues to be a winning strategy, so I expect we'll see more candidates with even more outlandish proposals in that regard in the future.

I think he means in terms of the process itself rather than what candidates propose.

The problem with proportional systems (and I'm not sure when the Democrats enacted theirs) is that they tend to lead to consistent contested conventions. And considering how divorced delegate selection is from voting in the Republican Party, that could lead to results much weirder than _trump being shafted for Cruz (Paul suddenly becomes a viable candidate in both '12 and '08, for instance).

So, we maybe see greater proportionality early in the process, but I think that would have to be counterbalanced by making the end of the process all WTM or WTA (which it already is, so maintaining might be a better word).

One thing we might see is pressure on state parties to put in very low or nonexistent thresholds -- _trump built up his lead not from overwhelming victories or even from WTA, but from opponents not making thresholds due to backfirings of strategic voting. The problem with this is of course that some delegates will end up pledged to random nutjobs who run and get 1-2%, but that's preferable to someone like _trump coming in.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why bother with process changes. They won't save you from the future, which is demographic. The average GOP voter has changed from what it was in the 1980's and even 2000's.


It is not the Jmfcsts (Higher end Evangelicals) that decide GOP nominees anymore as he used to so often claim. Most of them are in sunbelt states and will soon be drowned out by the rising tide of demographics.

The new GOP voter is now a lower middle class guy in the suburbs of St. Louis. Candidates will cater more and more to them in order to win primaries going forward.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The changes will be tough to predict until after the election.  If Trump is elected, AND if the GOP views that as having worked out well in the end, this issue might be moot.

The primary RULES are not the problem.  The problem is the mindset of so many in the GOP that "If only we nominated a REAL conservative, we'd blow the roof off the Electoral College." is a predominant sentiment.  A significant number of GOP voters disagree with key aspects of current conservative orthodoxy, and this primary has exposed that.  The GOP does not need to rig its process just to make the Club For Growth happier.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, it depends on which option the powers that be conclude is worse: having a Donald Trump-like candidate win the nomination or having a contested convention?  Depending on which of those is considered to be worse, you could go in one of two completely opposite directions: Switching to a PR-like system like the Dems have increases the chances of a contested convention, but at least it prevents a Trump-like candidate from getting a majority of delegates on the back of weak plurality wins in key states.  OTOH, if you want to avoid a contested convention at all costs, then you switch to more WTA contests.

Either way, one area that will be looked at is the question of who is eligible to become a delegate.  If you do have a contested convention, then you want to have procedures in place that allow the convention to come to some kind of quick resolution, and not have blood on the convention floor.  Maybe you even want to set up a process that allows the delegates to deliberate in some organized way immediately after the last primary and well before the convention starts, so you don't have uncertainty going into the convention.

[andrew_c]

I think the GOP will implement superdelegates for 2020.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Closed primary/caucus

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Two things: the GOP will add superdelegates after this year and will hopefully make the primary/caucus schedule less Southern in the early weeks. 

Then again, the party has ignored all the evidence that it is on its way to perpetual minority status, so it may ignore this too.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Depends on how much control Trump and Trump people are going to be able to exert. Would he be cool with changes designed explicitly to keep him from winning, had they been in place in 2016?