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  WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads
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Author Topic: WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads  (Read 2477 times)
marty
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« on: April 22, 2016, 11:36:46 am »

Donald Trump 37%
Ted  Cruz 31%
John Kasich 22%

Hilary 48
sanders 45

http://www.wthr.com/story/31792956/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-clinton-ahead-in-indiana
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 11:38:39 am »

Decent numbers. Kasich will decline from 22 and most of the 10% undecided will go to Cruz. Wouldn't look good if it was tomorrow but by May 3 this'll be fine.
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Joshua
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 11:39:32 am »

Looks like a tossup for the Democrats.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2016, 11:42:01 am »

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What does this mean? Are they "drilling down" into self-identified Republicans (not too useful in an open primary) or into likely voters?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2016, 11:42:33 am »

Excellent numbers for Trump. He doesn't even need to win the state, he just needs to pick up 6 or more delegates due to the upcoming slaughters on Mid-Atlantic and Final Tuesday.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2016, 11:45:17 am »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 11:47:01 am by Gass3268 »

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Haha, Trump has higher approvals than Cruz among Indiana Republicans. Also:

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Already banking votes for Trump!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2016, 11:50:01 am »

37% is a pretty weak showing for Trump. He's being saved by the vote splitting among his opponents.   
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standwrand
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2016, 11:50:43 am »

The fact that Sanders is so close now, shows he'll probably pull out the win.

As for Repubs, usually Kasich's numbers decline closer to the primary, but Kasich seems to be seriously contesting IN. Also, he fits very well the the Greg Ballard/Mitch Daniels Hoosiers, and also Kasich knows how to campaign in the midwest. But alas, Trump is Trump, and if Kasich's numbers go up, Trump will win the state.
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2016, 11:57:01 am »

Hard to conclude too much from one poll, but this would support the idea that both races will be competitive.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2016, 12:12:23 pm »

37% is a pretty weak showing for Trump. He's being saved by the vote splitting among his opponents.  
The way the state allocates, one vote more than Cruz will get Trump the 30 statewide delegates. It's then three delegates each for the 9 CDs.
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gf20202
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2016, 12:15:49 pm »

Sanders has a pretty big demographic advantage here so this poll has to be disappointing.  If it's tied nationally, he is supposed to win it by six. To be on pace to make up a pledged delegate deficit by the end of the primary, he needs to win by at least 14 and that's before the next five states vote.

Like another poster, I think Sanders is likely close enough now that he will win by outspending her greatly on television. But there's got to be a chance that Clinton taking 4 or 5 states next week depresses his turnout and he could lose. Mook knows Indiana very well.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2016, 12:23:51 pm »

As for Repubs, usually Kasich's numbers decline closer to the primary, but Kasich seems to be seriously contesting IN. Also, he fits very well the the Greg Ballard/Mitch Daniels Hoosiers, and also Kasich knows how to campaign in the midwest. But alas, Trump is Trump, and if Kasich's numbers go up, Trump will win the state.

Kasich had much more institutional support in Wisconsin (including two ex-Governors, Tommy Thompson and Scott McCallum). It didn't help. (Not that he'll do worse here than in Wisconsin, but I don't him to do much better, and I doubt he'll hit 22).
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swf541
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2016, 12:30:41 pm »

As for Repubs, usually Kasich's numbers decline closer to the primary, but Kasich seems to be seriously contesting IN. Also, he fits very well the the Greg Ballard/Mitch Daniels Hoosiers, and also Kasich knows how to campaign in the midwest. But alas, Trump is Trump, and if Kasich's numbers go up, Trump will win the state.

Kasich had much more institutional support in Wisconsin (including two ex-Governors, Tommy Thompson and Scott McCallum). It didn't help. (Not that he'll do worse here than in Wisconsin, but I don't him to do much better, and I doubt he'll hit 22).

Hmm, perhaps Pennsylvania will be a good test, perhaps he'll get a bonus for being the neighbor governor to some extent
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Fargobison
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2016, 12:33:14 pm »

Said it in another thread and will say it here, if Kasich is serious about a contested convention he pulls a Rubio here and tells his supporters to vote for Cruz to stop Trump.

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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2016, 01:00:10 pm »

Looks like Indiana, not Wisconsin, will be Cruz's real last stand.  I'm still inclined to think he will eke out a win, but it will be a real barn-burner.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2016, 01:13:38 pm »

Said it in another thread and will say it here, if Kasich is serious about a contested convention he pulls a Rubio here and tells his supporters to vote for Cruz to stop Trump.

I think he would be more inclined to do that if Cruz did the same for him in the five states this coming Tuesday, but we all know the Zodiac Killer wouldn't do that.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2016, 01:19:42 pm »

Said it in another thread and will say it here, if Kasich is serious about a contested convention he pulls a Rubio here and tells his supporters to vote for Cruz to stop Trump.

I think he would be more inclined to do that if Cruz did the same for him in the five states this coming Tuesday, but we all know the Zodiac Killer wouldn't do that.

I think Cruz should do the same for MD or at the very least agree on a Cruz-Kasich slate of PA anti-Trump delegates.

But neither of these people seem capable of doing it.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2016, 02:10:31 pm »

Ruh roh...
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A Perez
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 02:15:04 pm »

Sanders needs to win IN by a huge margin, not just win.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 02:23:39 pm »

Clinton lost IN but she was strong in WVa and KY. I think she wins
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standwrand
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 02:25:15 pm »

Clinton lost IN but she was strong in WVa and KY. I think she wins

Clinton won IN in 2008
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ashridge
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2016, 02:26:00 pm »

I think this poll is trouble for Trump, especially when taken together with the few private polls from last few weeks that were reported showing him tied and/or slightly ahead of Cruz in Indiana. These polls have him in a range from low 30's to mid 30's. Pretty much the same as in Wisconsin, and the polls pretty much hit his actual results almost on the nose. But the polls were wildly off of Cruz's actual results, which has happened again and again throughout these primaries.

Just for the sake of comparison, Trump got 38% of the vote in Illinois, and a whopping 22% (124,000 or so votes) of his raw vote total came from Cook County (Chicago) alone, probably including a fair number of crossover blue collar Democrats. Trump fairly well dominated in much of the rest of the state also, but if not for his huge raw vote total in Cook Co., and some help from Rubio's votes, Trump would have lost Illinois. 

Well, Rubio is obviously no longer in the race, and so far, the only Midwest state to have a traditional primary vote since then is Wisconsin, which Cruz won convincingly.

Indiana is also more Conservative than Illinois.

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

I also question whether Kasich is really going to do 8 points better in Indiana than he did in Wisconsin. Wisconsin set up much better for Kasich, in my opinion.

Add to all that the fact that Cruz overperforms his poll #'s more often than not, and that Cruz will be going all in in Indiana with advertising, outside Super-PAC ad help, huge campaign volunteer get out the vote operation, and a lot of personal appearances/rallies....My guess is Cruz wins by 5+.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2016, 02:37:48 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2016, 02:39:37 pm »

Clinton lost IN but she was strong in WVa and KY. I think she wins

Clinton won IN in 2008

The media painted it as a loss because it was only a 3-pt victory on the same day Obama landslided in NC.  There could be any number of reasons for OC's confusion, but that's the only one I can think of.
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ashridge
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2016, 03:19:18 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?
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