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  WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads
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Author Topic: WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads  (Read 2364 times)
ashridge
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« Reply #25 on: April 22, 2016, 03:19:18 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: April 22, 2016, 03:25:42 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?

I have no idea what the exact numbers are going to be there, but I do expect the percentages to look like they did in the Chicago area.
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« Reply #27 on: April 22, 2016, 03:32:04 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?

I have no idea what the exact numbers are going to be there, but I do expect the percentages to look like they did in the Chicago area.
I agree with Gass' analysis. Indiana to me is more Downstate Illinois/Chicago Burbs than Wisconsin.
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« Reply #28 on: April 22, 2016, 03:41:48 pm »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 03:44:05 pm by White Light »

Trump is OBVIOUSLY going to clean up in Lake County. Do you guys know anything about that area? It's more friendly to him than Cook County.

Of course it's also a much smaller portion of its respective state.
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ashridge
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« Reply #29 on: April 22, 2016, 03:49:24 pm »

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?

I have no idea what the exact numbers are going to be there, but I do expect the percentages to look like they did in the Chicago area.

Percentages yes, maybe so, but I wasn't talking about the percentages, I was talking about the raw number of votes. I doubt he's going to get anywhere near the raw number of votes in Lake county as he did in Cook County. If he'd have only gotten half the vote in Cook County that he actually did, he and Cruz would basically have tied statewide. I just don't see where he can rack up that kind of raw vote total in any one area of Indiana like he did in Illinois.
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ashridge
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« Reply #30 on: April 22, 2016, 03:50:28 pm »

Trump is OBVIOUSLY going to clean up in Lake County. Do you guys know anything about that area? It's more friendly to him than Cook County.

Of course it's also a much smaller portion of its respective state.

That's what I was getting at.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #31 on: April 22, 2016, 04:02:24 pm »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 04:05:29 pm by Clarko95 »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: April 22, 2016, 04:10:28 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #33 on: April 22, 2016, 04:18:56 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

No idea tbh. Not familiar with much south of Indianapolis. Just off of Illinois' and Ohio's results, I'm guessing Trump.
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Torie
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« Reply #34 on: April 22, 2016, 04:26:23 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #35 on: April 22, 2016, 04:30:02 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.

What about CD-02? I feel like that could be close or lean Trump.
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Torie
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« Reply #36 on: April 22, 2016, 04:35:33 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.

What about CD-02? I feel like that could be close or lean Trump.

Maybe. Are South Bend Catholics Trump Catholics? The other counties are very conservative, and religious, which is not Trump's best demographic. He does best with more secular lower middle class/working class Catholics, and goes down from there, outside the south.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2016, 04:56:52 pm »

Lake County isn't the only county that will matter in Northern Indiana.

Porter County (Valparaiso, Portage), LaPorte County (Michigan City, La Porte), St. Joseph (South Bend metro), and Elkhart County are all heavily industrialized counties that have a large portion of economically struggling areas, steel workers, whites of southern origin, racial tensions, and suburbs.

Predicting the raw vote total is hard, because this will be the first time the Republican primary mattered in 20 years. In 2012, these counties cast 78,000 of 635,000 total votes in the GOP primary (~12%). In 2016, we have a competitive primary, and also a candidate (Trump) who draws up very strong emotions among supporters and detractors.

If Hillary sweeps on Tuesday, I can see a lot of independents and maybe even Democrats crossing over to meddle in the GOP primary (to boost Trump? Or to stop him? who knows). I also predict that turnout from disaffected voters will surge and benefit Trump.

Northwest/northern Indiana will most certainly be Trump's voter base for the primary. The question is how many votes will he get here and everywhere else, compared to his opponents.

What are your thoughts of Southwest IN and the counties along the Ohio River also being strong for Trump? Trump has done very well in places that are ancestral Democrat.

My thoughts are that Trump will romp in IN-08 and 09, in the south, along with IN-01 (the industrial NW corner). IN-06 is mixed but lean anti Trump unless Dearborn county (Cinci burbs), is lower middle class. Columbus is kind of an upscale town, and not good for Trump, and Richmond probably is not either, and then there are the east Indianapolis burbs, which should also be close. Trump should lose the other CD's I would think.

What about CD-02? I feel like that could be close or lean Trump.

Maybe. Are South Bend Catholics Trump Catholics? The other counties are very conservative, and religious, which is not Trump's best demographic. He does best with more secular lower middle class/working class Catholics, and goes down from there, outside the south.

The county with South Bend in it is actually plurality mainline protestant. I think that's the district that could determine who wins the state.
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