WTHR indiana poll: trump and clinton with modest leads

[ashridge]

I think this poll is trouble for Trump, especially when taken together with the few private polls from last few weeks that were reported showing him tied and/or slightly ahead of Cruz in Indiana. These polls have him in a range from low 30's to mid 30's. Pretty much the same as in Wisconsin, and the polls pretty much hit his actual results almost on the nose. But the polls were wildly off of Cruz's actual results, which has happened again and again throughout these primaries.

Just for the sake of comparison, Trump got 38% of the vote in Illinois, and a whopping 22% (124,000 or so votes) of his raw vote total came from Cook County (Chicago) alone, probably including a fair number of crossover blue collar Democrats. Trump fairly well dominated in much of the rest of the state also, but if not for his huge raw vote total in Cook Co., and some help from Rubio's votes, Trump would have lost Illinois. 

Well, Rubio is obviously no longer in the race, and so far, the only Midwest state to have a traditional primary vote since then is Wisconsin, which Cruz won convincingly.

Indiana is also more Conservative than Illinois.

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

I also question whether Kasich is really going to do 8 points better in Indiana than he did in Wisconsin. Wisconsin set up much better for Kasich, in my opinion.

Add to all that the fact that Cruz overperforms his poll #'s more often than not, and that Cruz will be going all in in Indiana with advertising, outside Super-PAC ad help, huge campaign volunteer get out the vote operation, and a lot of personal appearances/rallies....My guess is Cruz wins by 5+.

[ashridge]

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?

[ashridge]

And in what area is Trump going to get such a huge block of votes in Indiana as he did in Cook County Illinois, in one spot, to put him over the top?

The Northwest part of the state from Whiting to South Bend. I expect them to vote like the Chicago suburbs did. Also I expect Trump to do very well in the Southwest part of the state between the Ohio and Wabash Rivers as it is a very Catholic region and ancestral Democratic, plus the counties along the Ohio River.

You think Trump, by himself, is going to get 120,000+ votes from just that one area of Indiana?

I have no idea what the exact numbers are going to be there, but I do expect the percentages to look like they did in the Chicago area.

Percentages yes, maybe so, but I wasn't talking about the percentages, I was talking about the raw number of votes. I doubt he's going to get anywhere near the raw number of votes in Lake county as he did in Cook County. If he'd have only gotten half the vote in Cook County that he actually did, he and Cruz would basically have tied statewide. I just don't see where he can rack up that kind of raw vote total in any one area of Indiana like he did in Illinois.

[ashridge]

Trump is OBVIOUSLY going to clean up in Lake County. Do you guys know anything about that area? It's more friendly to him than Cook County.

Of course it's also a much smaller portion of its respective state.

That's what I was getting at.