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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
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Author Topic: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4  (Read 4200 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #25 on: April 23, 2016, 10:59:03 am »

Cruz is collapsing.

Or maybe, we just assumed too quickly that Indiana would be Cruz territory. I have been in the minority in the past week or so saying that Cruz might not win Indiana, it's not Wisconsin. The Indianapolis area doesn't appear to be as anti-Trump as the Milwaukee area, and it doesn't influence the entire state as much as the latter. If you look at downstate Illinois, every county bordering Indiana went to Trump with at least 40%, and downstate in general was very pro-Trump. Central Illinois was much more favorable to Cruz, and I suspect many mid-sized cities in Indiana will vote like that (along with the Indianapolis suburbs), but Trump will do very well in all the rural areas, probably NW Indiana too.

I'm surprised that Kasich is doing so poorly for a state bordering Ohio. He's a joke at this point. Looks like Indiana for the Democrats will be very similar to Illinois and Missouri.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2016, 11:17:57 am »

No general election #s ?
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Ljube
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« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2016, 09:44:59 pm »

Actually time to drop out for Cruz and Kasich, while the latter should join the TRUMP-train and become the Donald's running mate.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #28 on: April 23, 2016, 11:38:39 pm »

Yeah, if TRUMP wins Indiana it's actually not difficult to get him to 1237 (assuming some of the PA unbounds vote for him), especially if you give him Montana too.
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BRTD
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« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2016, 12:45:10 am »

I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2016, 07:32:10 am »

Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the more evil one by trying.

Corrected
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Seriously?
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« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2016, 12:59:27 pm »

I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
Wishful thinking. All the states bordering IN went firmly Trump, except for Ohio, which went Kasich because he's their governor.
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Vosem
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« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2016, 01:04:27 pm »

I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
Wishful thinking. All the states bordering IN went firmly Trump, except for Ohio, which went Kasich because he's their governor.

...they didn't. Excluding KY, which is a caucus, Ohio voted 36% trump, Michigan voted 36% trump, and Illinois voted 38% trump. The results in those three states were meaningfully the same in the popular vote (there was a large difference in delegate results due to the different distributions of anti-trumps and different rules in all three states). There's no reason to think trump will do more than a few points better than that, and it was difficult to see that being enough to overcome Cruz even before Kasich stopped campaigning here.

Indiana is done. If trump is serious about winning this, he can do a few tours in the proportional states and then get to work on California tomorrow -- he still has a shot there.
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NHI
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« Reply #33 on: April 26, 2016, 07:14:33 pm »

Cruz is collapsing.

I knew that it would look this way after Trump's win in NY, and it'll probably look even worse for him after 4/26. If Cruz pulls off a win in Indiana though, I'd bet quite a bit that people will be back to saying that Trump is finished, which is what people were saying less than a week ago. Something tells me we won't know for sure until at least June 7th, if not the convention.

Anyway, this poll is pretty bad for Cruz. It looks like Sanders could pull off a win in Indiana, but of course it won't be a big enough win to change anything.
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