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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4  (Read 4539 times)
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,970
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

« on: April 22, 2016, 08:53:10 pm »

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/03/23/fox-news-poll-national-general-election-32316/

Somethin' doesn't add up in Ailes-town

Everyone else on Atlas was predicting a Cruz victory, while I was predicting a huge victory. It seems like I'm correct.

Yes, definitely, double-digit undecideds, high Kasich performance, and single-digit margin add up to a trump victory here, and a poll from a pollster that routinely has double-digit swings for no reason confirms it.


I like this. Firefighters are already on the scene and the girl is appropriately calm.
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Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,970
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 09:46:24 pm »

Kasich clearly despises trump and Cruz utterly; but he's polling roughly as expected for a secondary anti-trump candidate in a Midwestern state, and he'll see a small collapse on Election Day just like Cruz saw in Ohio and Kasich in Wisconsin.
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Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,970
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2016, 01:04:27 pm »

I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
Wishful thinking. All the states bordering IN went firmly Trump, except for Ohio, which went Kasich because he's their governor.

...they didn't. Excluding KY, which is a caucus, Ohio voted 36% trump, Michigan voted 36% trump, and Illinois voted 38% trump. The results in those three states were meaningfully the same in the popular vote (there was a large difference in delegate results due to the different distributions of anti-trumps and different rules in all three states). There's no reason to think trump will do more than a few points better than that, and it was difficult to see that being enough to overcome Cruz even before Kasich stopped campaigning here.

Indiana is done. If trump is serious about winning this, he can do a few tours in the proportional states and then get to work on California tomorrow -- he still has a shot there.
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