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Author Topic: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46  (Read 2908 times)
Kamala/Beto 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« on: April 22, 2016, 05:04:09 pm »

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-trump-leads-in-california-clinton-sanders-in-close-race.html

Tight race on the DEM side, Trump has large lead on the GOP side.

DEM: Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46

GOP: Trump - 49 Cruz - 22 Kasich - 20
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 05:05:19 pm »

Trump seems to be surging right now.  Whether or not it is permanent or just a result of NY remains to be seen.
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Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 05:06:04 pm »

Time to unite behind Trump, Republicans!
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Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech

Remember when MT Treasurer spent months and months telling us all that Heitkamp is favored and will easily win because of retail politics (TM)
Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2016, 05:10:07 pm »

...Holy crap
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Xing
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2016, 05:11:28 pm »

I'm not buying this yet. I can buy Trump winning, but by that much!? Also, I doubt the Democratic race is that close.
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My battleground map for 2020, based on only the highest quality #analysis from Atlas.

Volrath50
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2016, 05:18:30 pm »

RIP in peace #nevertrump
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2016, 05:24:48 pm »

The last three CA polls have been Trump +18 to now +27. It's looking clear he's well ahead here.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2016, 05:42:05 pm »

Not sure I buy that Sanders is more competitive in California than Indiana.
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2016, 05:42:49 pm »

Not sure I buy that Sanders is more competitive in California than Indiana.

Asian voters. California was always going to be way better for Sanders than people thought.

Time to unite behind Trump, Republicans!

Yup. Smiley
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2016, 05:46:45 pm »

YUUUUGE! Hope TRUMP cracks 50% in my favorite state. It's time for Rafael and Kasich to drop out.
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Pragmatic Democrat. Socially liberal, economically/fiscally moderate.

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STEVE BULLOCK FOR PRESIDENT 2020!

Invisible Obama
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2016, 05:48:41 pm »

California has a lot of anti-immigration, far-right Republicans and Trump speaks to them.
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LOCK TRUMP UP!
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2016, 05:51:50 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2016, 05:56:18 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2016, 06:00:15 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable.

Changing that crosstab to what every other pollster found in California (Clinton +20 among Hispanics, especially in the Southwest), and you get Clinton with an 8-10 point lead which is in line with all other polling. Clinton did not commit a gaffe that would harm her with Southwest Hispanics that would cause those numbers to decline from +20 to -19
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2016, 06:04:17 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable.

Changing that crosstab to what every other pollster found in California (Clinton +20 among Hispanics, especially in the Southwest), and you get Clinton with an 8-10 point lead which is in line with all other polling. Clinton did not commit a gaffe that would harm her with Southwest Hispanics that would cause those numbers to decline from +20 to -19

Sanders does perform better among Hispanics but no one will know the exact number until election day. With the primary more than a month a way I could see Sanders pulling out a win, but it needs to be big.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2016, 06:10:59 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

BUT BERNIE WON HISPANICS IN NEVADA!!!

(except that he didn't)
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2016, 06:11:37 pm »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

623 likely Democratic voters, so I imagine the MoE on the Hispanic subsample is pretty big.

Even if it's not, I always caution about "throwing out" results like this -- we should be selective about throwing out outliers.
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n/c
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2016, 06:14:13 pm »

Also wow Trump is dominating!! Even if you add Cruz and Kasich with every demographic (except white women) Trump still wins.
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2016, 07:16:36 pm »

The crosstabs for the Democrats are hilarious to say the least.
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2016, 08:55:05 pm »

Vosem be like:

"Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!"

Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave.
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I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
Bevinevitable
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2016, 10:04:36 pm »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2016, 10:34:39 pm »

Vosem be like:

"Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!"

Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave.
"Dewey Defeats Truman"

Huh
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I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
dspNY
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2016, 11:04:33 pm »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.

There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton

Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2016, 11:38:20 pm »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.

There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton

Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers

That woud make sense for Hispanics, but what about blacks?
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2016, 05:49:11 pm »

Vosem be like:

"Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!"

Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave.
"Dewey Defeats Truman"

Huh

I'm sick of this election.  Just give Clinton a victory and we'll try again in 4 years.
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