CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 (user search)
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  CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46  (Read 4728 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: April 22, 2016, 10:04:36 PM »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 11:38:20 PM »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.

There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton

Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers

That woud make sense for Hispanics, but what about blacks?
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