CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 (user search)
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  CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46  (Read 4734 times)
dspNY
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Posts: 2,868
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« on: April 22, 2016, 05:51:50 PM »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him
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dspNY
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Posts: 2,868
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2016, 06:00:15 PM »

Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.

GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him

It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable.

Changing that crosstab to what every other pollster found in California (Clinton +20 among Hispanics, especially in the Southwest), and you get Clinton with an 8-10 point lead which is in line with all other polling. Clinton did not commit a gaffe that would harm her with Southwest Hispanics that would cause those numbers to decline from +20 to -19
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dspNY
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,868
United States


« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2016, 11:04:33 PM »

This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:

A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points.
A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points.
A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point.
A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points.

And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy.

There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton

Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers
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